SIZING POTTSIE 1.40 Ayr at 2/5

Watch Racing Online Free With Coral Novices' Hurdle (Class 4) 2m

  COMPOSITE RATINGS

Trainer Form: 3-12 for 25%          (10) 
National average: 14%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 12%             (10)                                
OR: 143                             (10)  
Distance: 2m                        (10)                         
Optimum Ground: Soft                (10)
Jockey: Tom Scudamore               (10) 
National Average: 13%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 13%             (10)                                       
Trainer/Jockey Combo: 16%           (10)          
Total:                             (100)

Danger: Maughold Head

  Smart chaser winning Grade 2 in March

Sizing Pottsie is a smart chaser who was successful in a Grade 2 event at Navan in March. He was well below form in the Topham Chase at Aintree on final start. He left trainer Mrs J. Harrington for 95,000gns and since had a breathing operation. He starts his new life at a particularly modest level.

Dropped down to a Class 4 Novice Race

The 8yo has only 21 runs on the clock and been mixing it with some good horses in good races and tomorrow is just a Class 4 Novices' Hurdle Race. He is 0-4 over hurdles but 4-14 over chases and has a huge class advantage over his rivals. In fact, official ratings show his 143 is way above next best 103 held by Just Legs. Most of his other rivals have only had two NH runs or less so we just need a certain level of fitness to collect.

Course and ground

One thing to consider is why the trainer is sending their charge on this distance? With soft ground in the going title the 2m is going to ride further and we know the Pacafi stays much further given his second place to Melon at Gowran Park over 2m4f on heavy ground. The team must believe Ayr will suit and they would not send him here for a pipe opener, he is there to win and tell the stable where they are with him! One imagines he will be back to chasing sooner rather than later but he might pick up a couple of these races first. Interesting Harrington did not feel the need for a wind operation the Pipe team do.

Big fine horse - Jessica Harrington

"He seems to have a lot more respect for his fences, so we’ll go this route with him. He is a fine big horse, who was always going to go chasing and rather than wait until later in the season, we’ll let him take his chance and see how he gets on. He’s a horse that we’ve always liked and hopefully he’ll make into a very nice chaser."

Trainer Form

David Pipe has a national average of 14% and though he loves to send runners up to places like Perth for 19-64 for 30% (+15.54), his Ayr figures are disappointing showing 8-66 for just 12% (-27.85). His combination with Tom Scudamore is solid and shows 137-842 for 16%. The trainer is sending his charge on a trip of 377 miles, and this must mean he is ready to win and set up his coming season! This is the trainer's only runner of the day, and it would be a disaster should he not win! This is also Tom Scudamore's only ride of the day also!

Contenders

Maughold Head is a Fame And Glory gelding who showed plenty of ability in a Kelso bumper on debut, despite looking a handful. Went backwards over C&D next time but possibly found it coming too soon. The 5yo is now making his hurdles debut but it will take something special from him to beat the Pacafi!

 Timeform

 An excellent opportunity for smart chaser SIZING POTTSIE to open his account over hurdles. Jet Legs, Sanosuke and Maughold Head can all battle it out for minor honours.

Value

The 2/5 looks to contain genuine perceived value if ready to run, especially given the quality and inexperience of his rivals. If the Pacafi is ready to roll, and the trip to Scotland suggests it is, he must win with a kind trip! 

Ayr - Mick Fitzgerald

Underfoot conditions at Ayr are very important in deciding how you need to ride a race. When it’s very soft, on both the chase and hurdle tracks, you can afford to wait, because the field almost always comes back to you. When it’s quick, on the other hand, you can easily find yourself in trouble if others have got away from you and you’re left with a lot of ground to make up. It’s a fair test, with no bogey fences, but, ideally, you need a horse with both a little bit of toe and a fair amount of stamina.

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PACAFI RESULTS for 2022

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