BODORGAN 2.05 Newmarket at 4/5

British Stallion Studs EBF Novice Stakes (Class 4) 7f

  COMPOSITE RATINGS

Trainer Form: 3-11 for 27%          (10) 
National average: 15%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 8%              (10)←                              
RPR: 100                            (10)  
Distance: 7f                        (10)                         
Optimum Ground: Good to Soft        (10)
Jockey: Ryan Moore                  (10) 
National Average: 18%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 8%              (10)←                                       
Trainer/Jockey Combo: 20%           (10)          
Total:                             (100)

Danger: Sceptic
Alt: Marcolini

  Form of second run truly franked!

The Newbury debut in a Class 4 was average but priced 66/1 it was expected but he took a sizeable step forward when third in a very good looking 10-runner course and distance maiden at the beginning of the month. That form is already working out well (fourth and fifth have both won since) and he's clearly going to be hard to beat and all about price.

Trainer Form

Charlie Hills has won with 3 of his last 11 runners so bang in form and we have an eye-catching jockey booking in Ryan Moore, or do we? The combination shows 9-44 for 20% (+3.18) though both have moderate strike rates at the course. It is not something we are unduly worried about but the jockey's figures at this course do make for horrible reading 26-320 for just 8% (-183.67) measured against a national average of 18% (there are 43 second places contained within this stat). We also notice Moore has been beaten on 8 favourites over the past 14 days showing just 3-33 for 9% and without a winner in the past 6 days. One imagines he will be aware of the above numbers.

Contenders

It is hard to know who the main danger might be. Marcolini (foaled 18 January) is a €70,000 yearling and a brother to 2yo 1m winner Lesson Learned. Dam is an unraced half-sister to 2yo 5f winner (stayed 6f) Danehill Brook so one to note in the betting but will have to be smart if the Pacafi runs his race and we note he has already been gelded for his racecourse bow.

The main danger could be Sceptic (foaled 22 April) who is a 260,000gns yearling. Half-brother to useful 2yo 5f winner Magical Journey and 1m winner New York Angel. Representing a top yard, confidence behind him in the betting would be significant.

 Timeform

 The form of the C&D maiden in which BODORGAN was a close third has subsequently received a couple of boosts and he is likely to prove hard to beat with Ryan Moore doing the steering. Ben Dikduk can be expected to step up on his debut effort in due course but the selection may have most to fear from likely-looking newcomers Sceptic and Marcolini, both of whom tick plenty of the right boxes on paper.

Value

The 4/5 looks north of perceived value given the form of the Pacafi's last run and the RPR of 100 that accompanies it! A good paddock, trip to post and exit is what we need along with Ryan Moore's A game. 

Bodorgan traded at a low of 2.42 and Betfair SP of 27.82 when losing last time, a race in which it led.

.

PACAFI RESULTS for 2022

..