EXETER Racecourse Template (Friday 4 November 2022)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

The Racing Horse offers our Exeter Racecourse Template for Friday 4 November 2022. There is a 7-race card containing 4 Handicaps and 3 Novice Races. The going is expected to be good, good to soft in places.

Winning favourites
Non-Handicaps                    Handicaps
Hurdle 51-101	50%	-4.88	 43-123	 35%	-4.10
Chase  20-39	51%	-1.22	 37-115	 32%	-0.09
NHF    14-33	42%	+0.92	 	  	
TOTAL  85-173	49%	-5.18	 80-238	 34%	-4.19

Exeter Top 5 Trainers (5 years)               +/-   R
C Tizzard (13%)  28-189	  15%	-47.69        +2%   5
P Hobbs (15%)    26-190	  14%	-71.99        -1%   4
P Nicholls (24%) 22-90	  24%	-17.37        +0%   5
D Pipe (14%)     18-155	  12%	-63.04        -2%   2
H Fry (18%)      17-65	  26%	+19.61        +8%   2

Exeter Top 5 Jockeys (5 years)                +/-   E
H Cobden (22%)    22-108   20%	-28.23        -2%   4
T Scudamore (13%) 17-133   13%	-27.31        +0%   2
R Johnson (18%)   16-97	   16%	-46.81        -2%   0
S Bowen (17%)     14-68	   21%	+23.57        +4%   0
B Carver (14%)    12-55	   22%	+59.90        +8%   0

Exeter Top 5 Owners (5 years)                 +/-   E
J P McManus (17%)   12-62   19%	  -15.05      +2%   0
Brocade Racing (16%) 7-51   14%	  -25.87      -2%   1
D V Gardner (8%)     5-36   14%	   -4.50      +6%   0
S M Trump (12%)	     4-22   18%	   +2.50      +6%   0
William Rucker (15%) 4-28   14%	   -4.25      -1%   0

Hot Trainers
C Gordon (16%)   11-26   42%	 +8.00       +26%   1
P Nicholls (24%) 19-54   35%	 +3.25       +11%   5
H Fry (18%)       5-17   29%	 +1.88       +11%   2
K Bailey (17%)    6-25   24%	 -2.00        +7%   1
J Tizzard (26%%)  8-34   24%	 -1.00        -2%   5

Cold Trainers      SAW   E
N Hawke (8%)        37   1  
Mrs S Gardner (6%)  48   1

Hot Jockeys
H Cobden (22%)    17-47   36%	   +0.75     +14%   4
T Cannon (15%)    11-35   31%	   +4.00     +16%   2
T Scudamore (13%) 12-50   24%	   -1.00     +11%   2

Cold Jockeys       SAW   R
A Cheleda (12%)     32   1
D Noonan (5%)       31   1
T O'Brien (11%)     30   4

FIXTURES
Friday 4 November 2022
Monday 14 November 2022
Sunday 20 November 2022

FAVOURITES: Over the past 5 years winning favourites score at way above the national average showing 165-411 for 40.15% (-9.37). Winning favourites in non-handicap hurdles and chases score above 50% with 71-140 for 50.71% (-6.10).

TRAINERS: There are a number of trainers in great form, none more so than Paul Nicholls (24%). As we go to post he shows 13-36 for 36% over the past 14 days. He has 5 runners tomorrow and looks ready to score multiple winners, they include OUTLAW PETER 12.40, LALLYGAG 1.15, FLASH COLLONGES 2.25, DOLOS & GREANETEEN 3.35. The trainer has confirmed his best chance of a winner is Outlaw Peter and is a Pacafi!

Joe Tizzard (26%) officially took over from his father in May and has made a splendid start scoring 27-103 for 26% (+16.83). He has 5 runners tomorrow and more likely than not to score another winner. He is 0-1 at Exeter so will be hoping for his first winner sooner rather than later. His runners include KING OF LOMBARDY 1.15, SHIROCCOS DREAM 1.50, SIZING CUSIMANO & KILLER KANE 3.00, WAR LORD 3.35

Philip Hobbs (15%), David Pipe (14%), Harry Fry (18%) and Dan Skelton (19%) have 12 runners between them, and we can expect a couple of winners from this quartet! Interesting to watch THYME HILL 2.25 having his first chase run for Hobbs and is just about price! As we go to post he is available at 1/2 and that is not far away from perceived value, should 8/13 become available we would be forced to wager!

JOCKEYS: Tom O'Brien (11%) who is now the number one for Philip Hobbs is on a losing run of 30 and has 4 rides tomorrow, we expect him to win on THYME HILL 2.25 and a Pacafi consideration!

Take your hat off Harry Cobden (22%)! He is in fantastic form with the last 14 days showing 13-27 for 48%. He has 4 rides and will be looking for a win double to supplement those figures.

OWNERS: Only Brocade Racing (16%) from our leader board have a runner tomorrow though hard to see NEON MOON 3.00 winning.

BY THE WAY: Bet365 offered 8/13 about Thyme Hill and the price looked too big even though we had reservations about the form of Philip Hobbs. As we went to email alert members, they cut the price to 4/7. If the horse is ready to run, he must surely be too good for his 2 rivals and 4/7 might still be north of perceived value!

12.40
OUTLAW PETER (P Nicholls) PACAFI. Drops from Grade 2 to Class 3, trainer has won 3 of the last 10 runnings, Harry Cobden rides
SIRUH DU LAC (D Pipe) drops from Grade 3 to Class 3, first time tongue strap, Tom Scudamore rides

1.15
LALLYGAG (P Nicholls) trainer has won 3 of the last 10 runnings, Harry Cobden rides
MADAKET (P Hobbs) trainer has won 3 of the last 10 runnings, 69 of Kayf Tara's progeny have won on their hurdling debut, Tom O'Brien rides
VIKING'S WAY (D Skelton) beaten favourite last time out, Harry Skelton rides

1.50
MA BELLE NOIRE (H Fry) beaten favourite last time out, trainer shows profit of £14.81 with horses running after a break. Ben Bromley rides
WHISKY BREAK (H Fry) 
trainer shows profit of £14.81 with horses running after a break, Jonathan Burke rides
THE HEIGHT OF FAME (K Burke) trainer shows profit of £73.01 when one runner on the card, Gavin Sheehan rides

2.25
THYME HILL (P Hobbs) PACAFI, drops from Grade 1 to Class 2, clear pick on hurdles form and is highly likely to make a chaser, 
Tom O'Brien rides
FLASH COLLONGES (P Nicholls) trainer has won 3 of the last 4 runnings, 24% with chasers running between 19f and up to 3m, Harry Cobden rides

3.00
KILLER KANE (J Tizzard) drops from Grade 3 to Class 3, Brendan Powell rides
MASTERS LEGACY (P Hobbs) trainer has won 3 of the last 10 runnings, Micheal Nolan rides
MINELLA BUSTER (E Lavelle) took big step forward when making winning chase bow at Kempton on return 3 weeks ago, jumping improving through the race. 9lb rise fair and open to further improvement. Tom Bellamy rides and 37% on chase favourites

3.35
GREANETEEN (P Nicholls) trainer has won 3 of the last 10 runnings, 23% with chasers up to 2m3f, Harry Cobden rides
DOLOS (P Nicholls) trainer has won 3 of the last 10 runnings, 23% with chasers up to 2m3f, Lorcan Williams rides

4.08
MAN OF THE SEA (N Mulholland) trainer shows profit of £17.91 with hurdling favourites, Thomasina Eyston (7) rides
UBERMAN (K Davis) beaten favourite last time out, Joe Anderson (7) rides

Exeter is a beautiful track - in my opinion definitely one of the best in Britain - and it’s a great place to take a novice chaser. The fences are very fair, and the ground is usually lovely. Years ago, they seemed to struggle to water around there, partly, I imagine, because the course covers such a vast expanse of land. But it holds its condition really well now and it’s a great place to ride. It’s a fine test of a horse - really good - and it shouldn’t surprise anyone that so many top trainers like to go there - Mick Fitzgerald

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