THERMUSA 2.55 Sedgefield at 4/6

Stanley & Lillian Thompson Memorial Mares' Novices' Hurdle (Class 4) 2m3f188y

  COMPOSITE RATINGS

Trainer Form: 1-5 for 20%           (10) 
National average: 16%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 20%             (10)                              
RPR: 112                            (10)  
Distance: 2m4f+                     (10)                         
Optimum Ground: Good to soft        (10)
Jockey: Brian Hughes                (10) 
National Average: 19%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 27%             (10)                                       
Trainer/Jockey Combo: 25%           (10)          
Total:                             (100)

Danger: Sweet Auburn

  Untapped potential, conditions to suit

Thermusa was purchased for £110,000 after impressively winning an Irish point-to-point in a May, is now a course and distance winner and looks a most promising type. Before winning her Class 4 Novice Hurdle race on good to soft ground, she had been successful in a point-to-point over 3m at Dawstown on yielding ground so will stay every yard of today's trip. She won on her rules debut easily whilst looking very professional, making all at a steady pace before increasing tempo 2 out then went clear before the last under today's rider Brian Hughes. The daughter of Kayf Tara has untapped potential and the penalty she picks up for that comfortable success is far from restrictive.

Trainer and Jockey Form

At the course Ruth Jefferson shows 3-15 for 20% (-3.77) whilst her combination with jockey Brian Hughes scores 10-40 for 25% (+0.83) so all the ticks in all the boxes. Regarding the two rival jockeys there will be added interest given the Donald McCain connection. Hughes has recorded an incredible 215-1080 for 20% at the course (all time) and 95-354 for 27% over the past 5 years. Main rival Peter Kavanagh who claims 5lbs scores 0-22 for 0% at the course - what is the value of these figures? Weighing 9st 7lbs there will be 2st dead weight in the saddle for his mare also.

Contenders

Sweet Auburn won a bumper here at the course last Christmas and opened account in this sphere when taking 5-runner novice at Bangor (16.7f, good) 72 days ago. She has been off the track for 72 days but likely capable of better yet though plenty to do to beat the Pacafi. Sweet Auburn is also penalised for her Bangor success, although Peter Kavanagh takes a handy 5lb off her back. Anti Bridgie looks likely to claim third place.

 Timeform

 Winning-pointer THERMUSA landed the odds with the minimum of fuss on her hurdling debut over C&D last month and can follow up. Sweet Auburn looks the obvious danger.

Value

The 4/6 looks real value and jockey Brian Hughes, despite 303 winners for Donald McCain sticks with the Ruth Jefferson good thing. 

Thermusa traded at a high of 2.40 and Betfair SP of 1.77 when winning last time, a race in which it led.

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PACAFI RESULTS for 2022

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