PACAFI (Thursday 17 November 2022)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

MAJESTIC PRIDE 5.00 Chelmsford at 4/6

British EBF Future Stayers' Novice Stakes (Class 3) 7f

  COMPOSITE RATINGS

Trainer Form: 4-8 for 50%           (10) 
National average: 29%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 27%             (10)                              
RPR: 95                             (10)  
Distance: 7f                        (10)                         
Optimum Ground: Standard            (10)
Jockey: James Doyle                 (10) 
National Average: 20%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 24%             (10)                                       
Trainer/Jockey Combo AW: 37%        (10)          
Total:                             (100)

Danger: Hey Lyla
Alt: Al Alaali

 Beautifully bred

The beautifully bred Majestic Pride should take this race after showing so much promise at Newmarket on his debut. He is a late foal (3 May) and a half-brother to Farhh, who won 5 times between 7f and 1m 2f including two Group 1 races. He was beaten 1¾l when second of 13 at 7/2 on that racecourse debut at Newmarket over 7f on good to soft ground last month and is certain to have learnt plenty for the run. 

Godolphin Comments

10th foal; half-brother to 7 winners inc Farhh (7f-1m2f inc Group 1; RPR 127), Racing History (1m-1m2f inc Gr 3; 118), Basem (1m; 113), Dubai Thunder (1m2f; 106) and Last Look (1m2f; 103); dam German 6f-1m4f winner (inc at 2/Group 1; 114); solid second on debut at Newmarket over 7f

Trainer and Jockey Form

This is Charlie Appleby's only runner tomorrow and James Doyle only ride and this looks significant. Their combination on the AW returns a 37% strike rate with 34 winners from 92 rides. The trainer shows 22-82 for 27% (-32.68) at Chelmsford whilst James Doyle rides the course at 40-166 for 24% (-52.33).

Contenders

Hey Lyla is a lightly raced maiden and has been fairly consistent of late and seems the biggest danger to the selection. She was a bit below previous form when 3rd of 12 in a minor event at Kempton over 7f 29 days ago. Al Alaali is of some interest and will be looking for a place finish.

 Timeform

 This can go to MAJESTIC PRIDE, who posted an encouraging second on his racecourse bow at Newmarket last month and should have learnt plenty from that. Hey Lyla, is the obvious danger.

Value

The 4/6 looks fabulous perceived value, we priced the colt up closer to 8/15! 

Majestic Pride traded at a low of 4.00 and Betfair SP of 6.24 when losing last time, a race in which it raced in mid-field.

PACAFI RESULTS for 2022.

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