LUCCIA 3.30 Exeter at 8/11

Virgin Bet Daily Extra Places Novices' Hurdle (Listed) 2m161y

  COMPOSITE RATINGS

Trainer Form: 4-12 for 33%          (10) 
National average: 23%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 21%             (10)                              
RPR: 143                            (10)  
Distance: 2m+                       (10)                         
Optimum Ground: Good, good to soft  (10)
Jockey: Nico de Boinville           (10) 
National Average: 22%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 14%             (10)?                                      
Trainer/Jockey Combo: 25%           (10)          
Total:                             (100)

Danger: Lallygag
Alt: Ittack Blue

 Unbeaten and talented

Luccia looked an excellent prospect when winning both bumper starts last season and confirmed those impressions when the ready winner of a Newbury mares' Listed race over 2m on good ground on her hurdle debut in November. She has been given time to double up in this class and in these conditions though has a tactical race ahead of her, but it will be disappointing if she is beaten in this race, she will go on to better things!

Worth reminding ourselves, she won with her ears pricked off a relentless pace in a fast time. Her jumping was good and she now suggests she could be top class! Interesting to see if Harry Cobden and Harry Skelton try to soften her up (did not work last time), or dawdle and hope for a sprint finish? The other three runners will hope to pick up place money and not get involved in early skirmishes.

WINNING at NEWBURY LAST TIME OUT

Henderson is hoping she will book her ticket for the Cheltenham Festival after showing a good deal of talent. The trainer took the unusual step of letting her make her hurdling debut in Listed company which she won with ease and he wanted to test her at a higher level again in the Tolworth at Sandown. Unfortunately she gave a dirty scope so this is her prep run before the Festival.

Back in very good form

Nicky told us: "She’s only had one run over hurdles which was in a ‘Listed’ race at Newbury. She then had a dirty scope which took a bit of time to clear up, but she’s back in very good form. There is a ‘Listed’ race for boys and girls at Exeter, and it’s always turned out to be a good race and a good trial. I think she deserves to take her chance and that should take her on, hopefully, to the Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle at Cheltenham."

Trainer Form/Jockey Form

Nicky Henderson has won with 4 of his last 12 runners for 33% whilst jockey Nico de Boinville has won on all of his last 3 rides, so confidence should be high! We had not realised the numbers for Nico at Exeter, over the past 5 years he shows just 4 winners from 28 rides for a modest 14% (-13.51). We were shocked to find those numbers and find them hard to explain given he jockey's combination of 492-1918 for 26% with trainer Nicky Henderson. We will keep members posted on Nico's journey to 500 and will log his rides from here! He has 4 rides at Exeter today and will be hoping for a win double at the very least!

One other thing we found strange is the fact the trainer has only sent 33 horses to race at Exeter over the past 5 years? His figures are moderate scoring just 7-33 for 21% and a loss of -11.75 to SP.

Contenders

Lallygag is the obvious danger and Harry Cobden is more likely to be adventurous than a cautious Nico de Boinville, but the Pacafi might have a bit to spare. Lallygag is a 6yo gelding who won maiden/novice events here on first 2 starts over hurdles before bumping into the smart Grey Dawning when losing his unbeaten hurdle record over course and distance in December. He then quickly got back to winning ways at Taunton since, will cause problems.

Looking closely at the Newbury win for our Pacafi, the Skeltons will know exactly where they stand with their charge, and despite the 310,000gns purchase price it will be a surprise if their charge is backed to beat our nomination! As we go to post Ittack Blue is available at 6/1 and we believe that price, or something close to it, will be available come post time.

Timeform

The exciting LUCCIA will be very hard to beat if showing up in anything like the same form as when landing a Newbury mares' listed event on her hurdle debut in November. Lallygag can give her most to do ahead of Ittack Blue, whose yard has won the last 2 runnings of this.

Perceived Value

The 8/11 looks north of perceived value. With a live Paul Nicholls runner in opposition we are wary of confirming what perceived value truly is, but we have virtually all of our boxes ticked. We had hoped to nick a little 4/5 and that might become available on the Exchange through the night. 

Winning favourites in non-handicap hurdles at Exeter show 62-113 for a massive 55% (+1.48)

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