SPRING PROMISE 2.50 Lingfield at 11/10

talkSPORT Powered By Fans Fillies' Novice Stakes (Class 3) 7f1y

  COMPOSITE RATINGS

Trainer Form: 7-21 for 33%          (10) 
National average: 29%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 32%             (10)                              
RPR: 91                             (10)  
Distance: 7f                        (10)                         
Optimum Ground: Standard            (10)
Jockey: Jamie Spencer               (10) 
National Average: 13%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 25%             (10)                                      
Trainer/Jockey Combo: 44%           (10)          
Total:                             (100)

Danger: Choisya
Alt: Puntarelle

 Godolphin Comments

Half-sister to the stable's Group 1 winner Naval Crown; ran green but showed plenty of ability when finishing second of eight over 1m at Lingfield in January 2023; secon again, beaten a short head by stablemate Veil Of Shadows, in 1m fillies' novice at Kempton in February.

Optimum conditions and receives weight

Spring Promise receives weight from the main danger and now eased in distance, after posting a brace of runner-up efforts over 1m when priced 13/8 and then the 8/11 favourite last time out. She is certain to progress again given how green she was. We note the cheek pieces are on for concentration purposes and to aid speed for the 7f trip. She is clearly held in some regard with Godolphin confirming she has 'plenty of ability' and with Jamie Spencer on board she is a confident selection!

Trainer Form

Charlie Appleby is now officially the best trainer in the UK and his 29% national average beggars belief! He never seems to be out of form and is currently winning at 33%. At Lingfield he strikes at 32% so 3% above that tremendous national average. Tomorrow he employs Jamie Spencer and the opportunity will not be lost on the jockey. He is currently 4-9 for the trainer at 44% and will want to nurture this connection and opportunity at this stage of his career. We can expect his best ride and not his default one out the back. The filly was first out of the stalls at Kempton last time out and something similar required this time on the faster track though a lead might help early on.

Interesting that at this fast track Jamie Spencer has excellent 5-year figures showing 13-52 for 25% (+2.74) so a whopping 12% above his national average! Also interesting in that he has a ride for David Simcock on a 6yo hold-up performer who has a favourite's chance, and the first time the jockey has ridden him. See SCARBOROUGH CASTLE 4.50 and a win double beckons.

Contenders

The nicely bred Choisya looks a promising individual and looks the main danger. She won a 13-runner minor event at Southwell (7.1f) 33 days ago with a bit in hand and is clearly open to progress. She carries a 7lbs penalty and that makes things very hard against the Pacafi especially. Puntarelle has been off the track for 8 months (241 days) and though unplaced in two runs looks like she may have more to offer.

Timeform

 SPRING PROMISE sets the standard and should take the beating. Choisya, Puntarelle and Velvet Thunder are all open to improvement and represent feasible dangers.

Perceived Value

We managed a little 5/4 with Bet365 but that quickly disappeared, but consider 11/10 to be north of perceived value!

***.888

How to PROFIT from the PACAFI

 4 Bold Endeavour    1.67        1.00
 3 Spring Promise    2.10   WIN  1.00  +1.10  +0.83  S/R  67%
 2 Since Day One     1.67   LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -0.27  S/R  50%
 1 Luccia            1.73   WIN  1.00  +0.73  +0.73  S/R 100%