KATEIRA 2.45 Market Rasen at 10/11

Premier League Offers At Rhino.bet EBF Mares' 'National Hunt' Novices' Hurdle (Class 3) 2m125y

  COMPOSITE RATINGS

Trainer Form: 3-40 for 8%            (9)? 
National average: 19%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 19%             (10)                              
OR: 128                             (10)  
Distance: 2m3f+                      (9)?                        
Optimum Ground: Good to soft        (10)
Jockey: Harry Skelton               (10) 
National Average: 22%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 23%             (10)                                      
Trainer/Jockey Combo: 22%           (10)          
Total:                              (98)

Danger: Passionate Pursuit
Alt: Stowaway Jess

Negatives

There are a couple of slight negatives about the Pacafi tomorrow but after careful consideration those negatives have been factored into the price and set aside given her class and natural speed!

Trainer form below requisite

First, we note Dan Skelton is just 3-40 for 8% over the past 14 days and that would normally mean a disqualification. Trainer form is the cornerstone of our betting and we always insist on requisite figures before wagering. But, the trainer has recorded 10 second places in the same time frame. Normally we only measure winning form but 10 second places in 14 days is a huge number, so in effect 13-40 for 33% have finished in the first two places.

Optimum ground

Secondly, we are asking our mare to drop back from 2m4½f to 2m½f! Our belief is the 2m½f is not her optimum distance given the manner of her victory at Huntingdon and her breeding, but she travelled so strongly last time out just off the pace we do not think this lack of trip will beat her!

Weight

She also has to give 5 of her 6 rivals 10lbs but she looks more than 10lbs better, at least at this  stage...

Market Rasen

We are mindful of the opinion of Mick Fitzgerald regarding Market Rasen, he says: "Not many courses put such a premium on the ability to travel through a race as Market Rasen. Even though it’s relatively flat, it’s a hard place to make up a lot of ground. You can turn into the straight thinking you’ve loads of time to make a challenge but, if others quicken away from you at that point, you struggle to get back to them. If you kick from the turn in, though, it’s a fair way home and you almost look up with a furlong left and ask yourself ‘am I not there yet’. The home straight really is l-o-n-g." We know Katiera travels kindly and strongly so Harry Skelton can keep her prominent.

Smart prospect

She clearly looks a smart prospect and doubt the team are playing silly buggers with her, it could be they have a race at Cheltenham in mind for her so a trial of some sort. She has won two hurdle races and a NH flat race from 2m to 2m 5f on good to soft and soft ground. Won on her latest in a hurdle race when 8/15f at Huntingdon over 2m 5f (good to soft) last month, beating Lets Go To Vegas by 13l. She has also won at Uttoxeter this season.

Trainer Form

Dan Skelton has a national average of 19% and he matches that strike rate at Market Rasen. Jockey Harry Skelton rides at 22% but scores 23% at Market Rasen. Their combination is now in the awesome stage scoring 952-4381 for 22% and £12,198,650 in prize money. Tomorrow Dan runs 6 horses and a win double beckons at least, he might score three! We are obviously staking the Pacafi but from a separate bank playing stop at a winner!

Contenders

Passionate Pursuit looks the main danger. She was fourth in a Chepstow bumper on Rules debut and stepped up on that when just touched off in a Wincanton maiden hurdle (15.2f) in November. In the process of confirming that promise (likely to have won) when unseating her rider soon after 2 out back there on Boxing Day. She remains with potential and will need to be beaten. Stowaway Jess looks the best of the Fergal O'Brien's runners, at least for now...

Timeform

 KATEIRA sauntered clear from 2 out in the style of a smart prospect at Huntingdon and is difficult to oppose despite having to concede weight all round. Passionate Pursuit probably would have won if she hadn't unseated her rider soon after 2 out at Wincanton on Boxing Day and rates the main threat.

Perceived Value

We are not quite sure what perceived value about the Pacafi is. We had hoped to nick a little even money, but do feel our wager is a class better than those she is racing against.

***.888pe

How to PROFIT from the PACAFI

 5 Kateira           1.91  WIN   1.00  +0.91  +0.74  S/R  60%
 4 Bold Endeavour    1.67  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -0.17  S/R  50%
 3 Spring Promise    2.10  WIN   1.00  +1.10  +0.83  S/R  67%
 2 Since Day One     1.67  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -0.27  S/R  50%
 1 Luccia            1.73  WIN   1.00  +0.73  +0.73  S/R 100%