CONISTON GEORGE 5.05 Ayr at 10/11

Virgin Bet Open National Hunt Flat Race (Class 5) 2m

  COMPOSITE RATINGS

Trainer Form: 1-5 for 20%           (10)
National Average: 16%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 18%             (10)                             
RPR 121                             (10)  
Distance: 2m                        (10)                       
Optimum Ground: Good to soft        (10)
Jockey: Danny McMenamin             (10) 
National Average: 13%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 10%             (10)                                      
Trainer/Jockey NHF Combo: 23%       (10)          
Total:                             (100)

Danger: Raffles Wonder

More to come

The Pacafi is out of the outstanding sire Flemensfirth and looks to have his stamina rather than the dam Dazza who won two sprint races over 5f and 6f. Coniston George posted a promising second of 9 in bumper when not fancied to win at 12/1 at Haydock over 2m on soft ground 71 days ago in a Class 4 and now races in a Class 5 receiving weight from only real rival on form. He travelled really strongly that day and looked all over the winner over the last half mile or so. There should be a lot more to come now he has been given plenty of time to recover, which he surely needed.

Trainer and Jockey form

Trainer Nicky Richards has his horses ticking over nicely whilst not being in the very top form. His form for March shows 1-5 for 20% (-1.25) whilst February shows 3-22 for 14% (-9.50). These figures are measured against a national average of 16%. One figure that catches the eye is trainer and jockey combination in bumpers scoring 6-26 for 23% (+2.18). Jockey Danny McMenamin has a national average of 13% but is probably a bit better than that. At Ayr today he rode a win double so bang in form and presumably confidence high!

Contender 

Raffles Wonder was a maiden Irish pointer who confirmed the encouragement of his Rules debut when landing a bumper at Sedgefield 57 days ago. Carries a penalty and will do well to lower the Pacafi colours and looks booked for second place.

Timeform

 CONISTON GEORGE posted a big effort when a smooth-travelling second on debut and, given time to recover, he should be able to get off the mark at the second attempt. Raffles Wonder, the only winner in the field, is a danger, and Rob Roy Macgregor is the pick of the newcomers.

Perceived Value

The 10/11 looks north of perceived value and is taken to improve past Raffles Wonder. We imagine come post-time he will probably start closer to 8/11. As always with bumpers we hope there is a decent pace to see our wager in the best light. On debut he was dropped out last in the early stages.

***pe

How to PROFIT from the PACAFI

 8 Gail Du Mesnil   2.10  WIN   1.00  +1.10  +2.37  S/R  75%
 7 Con'tution Hill  1.44  WIN   1.00  +0.44  +1.27  S/R  71%
 6 Coniston George  1.91  WIN   1.00  +0.71  +0.83  S/R  67%  R4
 5 Go West          2.10  WIN   1.00  +1.10  +0.12  S/R  60%
 4 Defence Treaty   2.00  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -0.98  S/R  50%
 3 Star Angel       1.62  WIN   1.00  +0.62  +0.02  S/R  67%
 2 Glory Bridge     2.10  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -0.60  S/R  50%
 1 Willmount        1.40  WIN   1.00  +0.40  +0.40  S/R 100%

 7 Eternal Hope      2.10  WIN   1.00  +1.10  +2.37  S/R  71%
 6 Hurricane Bay     1.53  WIN   1.00  +0.53  +1.27  S/R  67%
 5 Kateira           1.91  WIN   1.00  +0.91  +0.74  S/R  60%
 4 Bold Endeavour    1.67  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -0.17  S/R  50%
 3 Spring Promise    2.10  WIN   1.00  +1.10  +0.83  S/R  67%
 2 Since Day One     1.67  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -0.27  S/R  50%
 1 Luccia            1.73  WIN   1.00  +0.73  +0.73  S/R 100%