TAUNTON RACECOURSE TEMPLATE (Monday 20 March 2023)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

The Racing Horse offers our Taunton National Hunt RACECOURSE TEMPLATE for Monday 20 March 2023. There is a 7-race card and the going is expected to be soft, and good to soft in places.

Winning Favourites (5 Years)
Non-handicap                    Handicap
Hurdle	60-107	 56%	+1.07	53-151	 35%	 +4.39
Chase	 8-12	 67%	+3.36	36-94	 38%	+16.18
NHF	 7-21	 33%	-5.00	
TOTAL	75-140	 54%	-0.57	89-245	 36%	+20.57

TOP 5 TRAINERS at TAUNTON for past 5 years     +/-   E
P Nicholls (24%)   57-186   31%	   -15.03      +7%   3
P Hobbs (15%)	   28-146   19%	   -23.36      +4%   3
N Hawke (9%)	   14-94    15%	   +13.37      +6%   4
N Mulholland (12%) 14-114   12%	    +8.81      +0%   2
J Tizzard (13%)    13-106   12%	   -19.41      -1%   2

HOT TRAINERS 18/02/2023 to 19/03/2023          +/-   E
A Honeyball (19%) 9-25	  36%	   -6.17      +17%   1
H Derham (24%)	  3-10	  30%	   +4.50       +6%   1
N Hawke (9%)	  5-18	  28%	  +34.70      +19%   4
P Nicholls (24%) 26-94	  28%	   -1.00       +4%   3
J Snowden (17%)	  6-23	  26%	   +2.25       +9%   1

COLD TRAINERS       SAW   E
Hobbs & White (15%)  19   3
J Tizzard (13%)      19   2

TOP 5 JOCKEYS at TAUNTON for past 5 years      +/-   R
H Cobden (23%)	45-145	 31%	 -0.22         +8%   2
A Coleman (18%)	12-40	 30%	 +3.95        +12%   2
R Dingle (15%)	12-69	 17%	-18.37         +2%   1
T O'Brien (11%)	10-78	 13%	-39.61         +2%   0
B Frost (16%)    8-64    13%    -31.62         -3%   0

HOT JOCKEYS 18/02/2023 to 19/03/2023           +/-   R
H Cobden (23%)	18-67	 27%	+2.62          +4%   2
G Sheehan (17%)	11-47	 23%	+0.25          +6%   5
A Coleman (18%)	 5-23	 22%	+3.50          +4%   2

COLD JOCKEYS    SAW   R
A Wedge (13%)    37   5
B Powell (10%)   20   2

TOP 5 OWNERS at TAUNTON past 5 years           +/-   E
J P McManus (17%)     5-40   13%     -1.00     -4%   2
J Perriss (20%)       4-5    80%     +7.80    +60%   1
M Geoghegan (39%)     4-7    57%     +5.00    +18%   0
Bradley Partner (12%) 4-13   31%   +213.37    +19%   0
Albatross Club (20%)  3-3   100%    +12.00    +80%   0

FIXTURES
Monday 20 March 2023
Thursday 30 March 2023
Thursday 13 March 2023

(%): NATIONAL AVERAGE SAW: Since a winner E: Entries R: Rides

FAVOURITES: Taunton is a very good track for winning favourites. Over the past 5 years they show 164-385 for a big 42.60% and a level stake profit of +20.00 to SP. Ironically, non-handicap favourites win at 54% but show a tiny loss of -0.57, whilst handicap favourites win at 36%, so 18% less, but show a handsome profit of +20.57 to level stakes. Filtering favourites in non-handicaps at this course is a clear way in and a profitable angle.

TRAINERS: Champion trainer Paul Nicholls dominates proceedings at this course and scores at 7% above his national average, he has 3 runners tomorrow including IOUPY COLLONGE 1.40, YOUNG BUCK 3.15 & CENTARA 4.45. The last two are to be ridden by Harry Cobden.

Philip Hobbs & Johnson White (15%) are 0-11 under the new arrangement, but Hobbs is now 0-19 overall. They have 3 runners tomorrow though we cannot see an obvious winner. One imagines they will want a winner sooner rather than later...

JOCKEYS: Hot jockeys Harry Cobden (31%) and Aidan Coleman (30%) have the top strike rates at the course and have 4 rides between them, whilst other hot jockey Gavin Sheehan has 5 rides. The suggestion is this trio will have multiple winners between them today!

There are 2 jockeys on the cold list and both should ride a winner sooner rather than later. Adam Wedge (13%) is 37 rides without a winner whilst Brendan Powell (10%) is 19. Wedge has 5 rides and could end his losing run tomorrow.

OWNERS: The top owners at the track do not tell us too much in a general sense, but we note J P McManus has a couple of runners which include SMART CASUAL 2.10 & FANCY YOUR CHANCES 2.45

Owner/Breeder J Perriss has a good combination with Kim Bailey scoring 78-417 for 19% (+0.92) over the past 5 years winning £642,809 in prize money. He scores 4-5 at Taunton for 80% and has I GOT STUNG 4.45 in the NHF Race, this 5yo gelding is out of a Listed bumper winner and has good credentials on paper and is worth a check in the betting market.

RED FLAG: Paul Nicholls is eyeing record prize-money after his festival resurgence. The yard reached £3m for the first time in four seasons. The trainer told us: "The great thing is that we cracked £3 million in prize-money, which is great going into the last six weeks of the season. Me and Charlie Davies have got the bit between our teeth seeing if we can beat our record of prize-money before the end of the season." Given those comments we can be assured the team his horses will be doing everything to win, and with a little filtration should be worth noting/following until the end of the season!

PERTINENCE

1.40
IOUPY COLLONGES (P Nicholls) Trainer 31% at the course, 23% with hurdlers 2m2f up to 2m6f and 17% with handicap debutants, Charlie Sprake (3) rides
GINGERBREAD (Hobbs & White) beaten favourite last time out, trainers 0-11, Jack Martin rides

2.10
OUT OF OFFICE (E Williams) created excellent impression when winning at Chepstow after Christmas, sets standard, Adam Wedge rides
DANCILA (F O'Brien) useful Flat racer in Ireland, drops from Class 2 to Class 4, Paddy Brennan rides
SMART CASUAL (A Honeyball) trainer 20% with hurdlers up to 2m2f, Aidan Coleman rides and 30% at the course

2.45
BRIANNA ROSE (M Keighley) should benefit from return to 3m, taken to gain reward for her recent consistency, Conditional Harry Atkins claims 10lbs
ATJIMA (V Dartnall) Bumper winner, opened her account over hurdles in 2½m Ffos Las handicap 15 days ago. Raised 8lbs, low mielage, more come moving up to 3m. David Prichard (5) rides

 3.15
DOCTOR KEN (O Murphy) beaten favourite last time out, hurdle winner but chaser on looks, Aidan Coleman rides
YOUNG BUCK (P Nicholls) Trainer red-hot, 31% at course, bit to prove but Harry Cobden rides and 31% at course
STRIKING A POSE (J Tizzard) weighted to win 128 > 122, trip to suit, Brendan Powell rides

3.45
ZAMBEZI FIX (B Llewellyn) cosy winner of 2m Chepstow handicap last month. Back up 4lbs but remains on a good mark, Sean Houlihan rides
JPR ONE (J Tizzard) drops from Class 1 to Class 3, dual winner over hurdles, off 12 months since Supreme Hurdle. Market on comeback? 
Brendan Powell rides

4.15
KYM EYRE (E Williams) Yet to win a race of any type 0-7. Former point winner raised her game when second on her second start in this sphere at Ffos Las (23.8f) recently. One to beat. Adam Wedge rides
MILADYGRACE (M Keighley) 5lb rise for latest success at Market Rasen (19.2f) looks manageable, feared, 2-5 for new stable, should be 1 or 2, Gavin Sheehan rides

4.45
CENTARA (P Nicholls) Red-hot trainer 31% at course, Harry Cobden rides and 31% at course
RANGE (S Thomas) beaten favourite last time out, Adam Wedge rides
HAMMER DAN (D Pipe) bought for £62,000, formerly with P Doyle, Jack Tudor rides
ROCK HOUSE (D Skelton) formerly with F Poste, Bridget Andrews rides
SALADINS SON (C Gordon) formerly with M Magnussen, changed hands for £92,000, Rex Dingle rides

They’ve recently installed a reservoir at Taunton and you often get better winter ground there than in other parts of Britain. It’s a great course to ride and any number of good horses have made their debut there. Some of them won and plenty got beaten. It can be a trappy track for a jockey, as they tend to start racing from a long way out, and you run downhill to the third-last over fences and the second-last over hurdles. Novices can get caught out by those obstacles - Mick Fitzgerald
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