THE SAME 2.40 Market Rasen at evens

  Premier League Offers At Rhino.Bet Maiden Hurdle (Class 4) 2m4f139y

  COMPOSITE RATINGS

Trainer Form: 9-32 for 28%          (10)
National Average: 17%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 22%             (10)                             
RPR NA                              (10)  
Distance: 2m4f+                     (10)                       
Optimum Ground: Soft                (10)
Jockey: Fergus Gregory              (10) 
National Average: 11%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 26%             (10)                                      
Trainer/Jockey Combo: 15%           (10)          
Total:                             (100)

Danger: Sageburg County

As he enters his fifth full season Olly Murphy (31) has confirmed he is prioritising winning more Grade One races to build on a fabulous start to his career. The Warren Chase handler has made a huge impression since bursting onto the scene in the summer of 2017, having spent the previous four years under the tutelage of top Irish trainer Gordon Elliott. But first he has to acquire and then build these horses. We are not saying he has found one with tomorrow's Pacafi.

He told us: "I make a lot of mistakes and there are things that I’m going to do differently this year compared to last year. I think running horses around the right track is so important. It’s all about finding the right race for your horse around the right track and sometimes I’ve perhaps been guilty of trying to find a worse race but around a worse track for that particular horse. You’re always learning and I’m very self-critical. I think that’s how you get better." He looks to have found the right race for our Pacafi tomorrow.

Very weak race

The Same is having his first run under rules and it is rare we get involved with this type of circumstance. We have spent some time on this race and believe this Class 4 Maiden Hurdle is weak, very weak and not really a Class 4 and it will not take much for our Pacafi to win this. The Same was easily off mark when made favourite in an Irish point 3m race at the third attempt in October winning by a big 29 lengths. He was previously with Denis Paul Murphy in Ireland and changed hands for £48,000.

Ground and distance

The ground will be soft at Market Rasen and the Irish point win was on softer ground and the breeding confirms our Pacafi will relish the conditions and the staying distance of 2m4f plus.

Trainer Form

Trainer Olly Murphy has a good record at this track scoring 50-232 for 22% and £326,462 in prize money over the past 5 years. The combination of trainer and jockey Fergus Gregory show 52-343 for 15%, whilst the jockey has excellent numbers at the course showing 12-46 for 26% and a level stake profit of +10.65.

Contender

Sageburg County was successful in hid sole outing in Irish points and since showed fair form so far over hurdles. Did not look so good when a remote fourth at Hereford last time but he sets the standard here if back on song.

Timeform

Olly Murphy does very well here so his Irish point recruit THE SAME is probably the one to beat, with confidence in his chance increased should the betting vibes be strong. Sageburg County is the one likely to give him most to think about.

Value

We cannot be sure what perceived value is regarding this Pacafi, but our experience tells us the even money is likely to be so!

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How to PROFIT from the PACAFI

10 The Same         2.00  WIN   1.00  +1.00  +2.37  S/R  70%
 9 March Wind       2.50  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +1.37  S/R  67%
 8 Gail Du Mesnil   2.10  WIN   1.00  +1.10  +2.37  S/R  75%
 7 Con'tution Hill  1.44  WIN   1.00  +0.44  +1.27  S/R  71%
 6 Coniston George  1.91  WIN   1.00  +0.71  +0.83  S/R  67%  R4
 5 Go West          2.10  WIN   1.00  +1.10  +0.12  S/R  60%
 4 Defence Treaty   2.00  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -0.98  S/R  50%
 3 Star Angel       1.62  WIN   1.00  +0.62  +0.02  S/R  67%
 2 Glory Bridge     2.10  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -0.60  S/R  50%
 1 Willmount        1.40  WIN   1.00  +0.40  +0.40  S/R 100%

 7 Eternal Hope      2.10  WIN   1.00  +1.10  +2.37  S/R  71%
 6 Hurricane Bay     1.53  WIN   1.00  +0.53  +1.27  S/R  67%
 5 Kateira           1.91  WIN   1.00  +0.91  +0.74  S/R  60%
 4 Bold Endeavour    1.67  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -0.17  S/R  50%
 3 Spring Promise    2.10  WIN   1.00  +1.10  +0.83  S/R  67%
 2 Since Day One     1.67  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -0.27  S/R  50%
 1 Luccia            1.73  WIN   1.00  +0.73  +0.73  S/R 100%