ED KEEPER 1.23 Bangor at evens

   Irish Thoroughbred Marketing Gateway To Quality Maiden Hurdle (Class 4) 2m3f123y

  COMPOSITE RATINGS

Trainer Form: 4-7 for 57%           (10)
National Average: 18%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 21%             (10)                             
OR & RPR 118 & 121                  (10)  
Distance: 2m4f                      (10)                       
Optimum Ground: Soft                (10)
Jockey: David Bass                  (10) 
National Average: 15%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 11%              (9)                                      
Trainer/Jockey Combo: NA            (10)          
Total:                              (99)

Danger: Si Elegant
Alt: Present Fair

Sets a decent standard

Ed Keeper sets a decent standard on the evidence of his two runs to date, having found plenty of improvement from his Ffos Las debut when finishing second at Chepstow in January. The form has worked out really well with the winner scoring under a penalty and the third also getting off the mark in this sphere. We remember watching the race live (several times since) and at the time thought the Pacafi should have won at Chepstow, not sure how good Sam Twiston-Davies was that day! The trainer has found a perfect opportunity for his 5yo gelding to win.

Interesting breeding, time will tell us more...

It will interesting to see what happens with those out of the 'middle distance on the Flat' sire Hunter's Light who had his first 2yos in 2019. He stayed 7f as a 2yo. He has already produced a couple of decent types over the jumps who act in soft to heavy ground so the genes seem equipped. The dam Charbelle won a couple of hurdle races on soft and good to soft ground over 2m2f so there are no concerns with the distance.

Trainer Form

Trainer Sam Thomas has his horses in great form currently with 4 of his last 7 runners winning for 57% at prices of 16/5, 11/10, 10/3 & 13/2. At the course he shows 3-14 for 21% (+6.25). Jockey David Bass has only had 2 rides for Thomas so we have no figures to digest, whilst Bass shows 4-37 for 11% (-28.12). The combination looks positive regarding this Pacafi.

Contenders

The main danger looks to be Si Elegant who moves up in trip after a promising second at Newcastle last month and needs to be beaten! Bought for €155,000 after finishing second in a 3yo hurdle on sole start in France back in September 2021. Ran out at around the half-way point on British debut at Hereford but didn't do anything wrong when second of 8 at Newcastle since. Likely to be bang there. Interesting his trainer Christian Williams is 0-20 at the course.

The 6yo Present Fair is a dual point winner. Best effort in maiden/novice hurdles for new yard when fourth of 17 at Wetherby (2m) 8 weeks ago. Back up in trip and has the potential for better again.

Timeform

 ED KEEPER has shown more than enough in his 2 starts to suggest he has a race like this in him and can prove just too strong for Newcastle runner-up Si Elegant. Donald McCain's Present Fair looks best of the remainder.

Value

The even money looks north of perceived value given our rationale 

Si Elegant traded at a low of 1.33 and Betfair SP of 27.69 when losing last time, a race in which it raced prominently: Ed Keeper traded at a low of 1.34 and Betfair SP of 5.50 when losing last time, a race in which it raced prominently.

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How to PROFIT from the PACAFI

11 Ed Keeper        2.00  WIN   1.00  +1.00  +3.37  S/R  
10 The Same         2.00  WIN   1.00  +1.00  +2.37  S/R  70%
 9 March Wind       2.50  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +1.37  S/R  67%
 8 Gail Du Mesnil   2.10  WIN   1.00  +1.10  +2.37  S/R  75%
 7 Con'tution Hill  1.44  WIN   1.00  +0.44  +1.27  S/R  71%
 6 Coniston George  1.91  WIN   1.00  +0.71  +0.83  S/R  67%  R4
 5 Go West          2.10  WIN   1.00  +1.10  +0.12  S/R  60%
 4 Defence Treaty   2.00  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -0.98  S/R  50%
 3 Star Angel       1.62  WIN   1.00  +0.62  +0.02  S/R  67%
 2 Glory Bridge     2.10  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -0.60  S/R  50%
 1 Willmount        1.40  WIN   1.00  +0.40  +0.40  S/R 100%

 7 Eternal Hope      2.10  WIN   1.00  +1.10  +2.37  S/R  71%
 6 Hurricane Bay     1.53  WIN   1.00  +0.53  +1.27  S/R  67%
 5 Kateira           1.91  WIN   1.00  +0.91  +0.74  S/R  60%
 4 Bold Endeavour    1.67  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -0.17  S/R  50%
 3 Spring Promise    2.10  WIN   1.00  +1.10  +0.83  S/R  67%
 2 Since Day One     1.67  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -0.27  S/R  50%
 1 Luccia            1.73  WIN   1.00  +0.73  +0.73  S/R 100%