DUBAI DAWN 6.30 Wolverhampton at 1/2

   Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 EBF Restricted Novice Stakes (Class 5) 6f20y 

  COMPOSITE RATINGS

Trainer Form: 5-17 for 29%          (10)
National Average: 18%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 20%             (10)                            
RPR: 69                             (10)  
Distance: 6f                        (10)                       
Optimum Ground: Standard            (10)
Jockey: Rossa Ryan                  (10) 
National Average: 14%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 17%             (10)                                     
Trainer/Jockey Combo: 26%           (10)          
Total:                             (100)

Hard to oppose!

Dubai Dawn is a half-brother to the very smart 5f-7f winner Far Above and made the perfect start in a 10-runner maiden at this course and distance as the 15/8 favourite on debut 28 days ago in a Class 4 Maiden. Prior to his introduction there was talk of winning first up and he did not disappoint at any stage, travelling strongly before kicking clear to win most comfortably. 

Looks to have the current second favourite covered!

The runner-up, beaten a length, is now rated 72 and James Tate's colt was only in receipt of 2lb so he should be able to see of the 73-rated Maxzeno, who lacks the benefit of a recent run and has to give the selection 5lb. Tomorrow is a very weak Class 5 Novice and it will be a big surprise if the colt is beaten, with further progress assured from his debut, we just need a good paddock and a trip to post. We have stall 1 also, so do not need to seek the rail in this 3-runner race.

Trainer and Jockey Form

Trainer James Tate shows 0-5 for April but we are not concerned about this blip. Here are his figures since November 2022:

March           5-12 for 42%    +2.23
February	2-5  for 40%    +2.83
January         5-19 for 26%   +16.38
December	3-15 for 20%	-6.63
November	4-12 for 33%	-0.50

The trainer shows 35-176 for 20% at Wolverhampton so nicely above his national average. TRH is a big fan of jockey Rossa Ryan and he has great figures when teaming up with this trainer. The combination shows 15-58 for 26% (+32.43). The owner of the colt is Sheikh Hamed Dalmook Al Maktoum and he has winners at 21% so every box for this wager has been comprehensively ticked!

Contenders

Maxzeno has it all to do against the Pacafi but Kracking is bred for speed and it will be interesting to see what the market makes of him.

Timeform

    DUBAI DAWN made the perfect start over C&D 4 weeks ago and can defy a penalty with improvement on the way. Maxzeno can improve this year and is feared more than newcomer Kracking.

Value

They are almost certain to back the Oisin Murphy ride against the Pacafi through the night so our price is almost certain to ease. We will cash out with Bet365 and pick up those better prices...

How to PROFIT from the PACAFI

11 Dubai Dawn         1.33  WIN   1.00  +0.33  +1.94  S/R 55%
10 Shishkin           3.00  WIN   1.00  +2.00  +1.61  S/R 50%
 9 Red Riding Hoood   1.44  WIN   1.00  +0.44  -0.39  S/R 44%
 8 Slipofthepen       1.67  WIN   1.00  +0.67  -0.83  S/R 38%
 7 Take No Chances    1.83  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -1.50  S/R 29%
 6 Allegorie De Vassy 1.44  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -0.50  S/R 33%
 5 Berkshire Shadow   2.50  WIN   1.00  +1.50  +0.50  S/R 40%
 4 I Giorni (S)       3.00  LOSE  1.50  -1.50  -1.00  S/R 25%
 3 Liberalist         3.50  WIN   1.00  +2.50  +0.50  S/R 33%
 2 Sea Flawless       1.67  LOSE  1.00  +1.00  -2.00  S/R  0%
 1 Chantico           2.37  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -1.00  S/R  0%

14 Chance The Robin 1.57  WIN   1.00  +0.57  +1.94  S/R  64%
13 Carrerea         1.91  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +1.37  S/R  62%
12 Englebert        2.20  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +2.37  S/R  67%
11 Ed Keeper        2.00  WIN   1.00  +1.00  +3.37  S/R  73%
10 The Same         2.00  WIN   1.00  +1.00  +2.37  S/R  70%
 9 March Wind       2.50  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +1.37  S/R  67%
 8 Gail Du Mesnil   2.10  WIN   1.00  +1.10  +2.37  S/R  75%
 7 Con'tution Hill  1.44  WIN   1.00  +0.44  +1.27  S/R  71%
 6 Coniston George  1.91  WIN   1.00  +0.71  +0.83  S/R  67%  R4
 5 Go West          2.10  WIN   1.00  +1.10  +0.12  S/R  60%
 4 Defence Treaty   2.00  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -0.98  S/R  50%
 3 Star Angel       1.62  WIN   1.00  +0.62  +0.02  S/R  67%
 2 Glory Bridge     2.10  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -0.60  S/R  50%
 1 Willmount        1.40  WIN   1.00  +0.40  +0.40  S/R 100%

 7 Eternal Hope      2.10  WIN   1.00  +1.10  +2.37  S/R  71%
 6 Hurricane Bay     1.53  WIN   1.00  +0.53  +1.27  S/R  67%
 5 Kateira           1.91  WIN   1.00  +0.91  +0.74  S/R  60%
 4 Bold Endeavour    1.67  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -0.17  S/R  50%
 3 Spring Promise    2.10  WIN   1.00  +1.10  +0.83  S/R  67%
 2 Since Day One     1.67  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -0.27  S/R  50%
 1 Luccia            1.73  WIN   1.00  +0.73  +0.73  S/R 100%