Follow @Attheraces On Twitter Fillies' Novice Stakes
Trainer Form: 6-22 for 27% (10)
National Average: 21% (10)
Course Strike Rate: 30% (10)
OR & RPR: 97 & 100 (10)
Distance: 1m (10)
Optimum Ground: Good/Std (10)
Jockey: Rob Havlin (10)
National Average: 15% (10)
Course Strike Rate: 25% (10)
Trainer/Jockey Combo: 22% (10)
Total: (100)
Forget last run in Group 3, tomorrow is Class 5
Coppice is a sister to the very smart 6f winner Calyx but was a disappointing favourite in the Nell Gwyn last time at Newmarket, but she raced on the wrong side of the track that day and has only had the two starts in her career. Therefore, another chance can be taken on the daughter of Kingman, who won well at Kempton on debut and she is in good hands. She drops from Group 3 to Class 5 and brings a very high rating into the race. If she runs her race she looks very hard to beat!
Looking back her debut win at Kempton she was backed as if defeat was out of the question. She opened at 4/6 and started at 10/11 and she led inside final furlong to run on well in that Class 4 Novice Fillies' race under tomorrow's jockey Rob Havlin. The jockey comes here especially to ride this filly. In the Nell Gwyn Group 3 she was sent off as the 2/1 favourite so in the context of this race means she must surely be value at 1/2 in this Class 5 if ready to go!
Trainer form
J & T Gosden have their horses in fine form showing 6-22 for 27% over the past 14 days. Their charge is a filly with an OR of 97 running in a Class 5 at Newcastle on the AW. The trainers scores 18-60 for 30% at the course. and 114-512 for 22% with the jockey and trainer combination. Rob Havlin scores 29-118 for 25% when riding at the course.
Contenders
The main danger might be Rising Bay, who took a step forward when attempting to make all at Newmarket last time before fading into fourth, and that form could be enough to give her a shout. Merrnaa is a newcomer to note. Roger Varian runs Fleurir.
Timeform
Having created an excellent impression when scoring on debut in the autumn COPPICE looked all at sea at Newmarket in the Nell Gwyn and remains the type to do a lot better. She can capitalise on the return to calmer waters and defy a penalty. Fleurir and Rising Bay can chase her home.
Value
Initially we had hoped to nick a little 8/13 or 4/7 but on reflection that looked wishful thinking and the 1/2 must surely be north of perceived value.
Coppice traded at a low of 3.35 and Betfair SP of 3.35 when losing last time, a race in which it raced towards the rear.
7 Coppice 1.50 WIN 1.00 +0.50 -0.16 S/R 57%
6 Adayar R4 2.20 WIN 1.00 +1.08 -0.66 S/R 50%
5 Native Trail 2.25 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 -1.74 S/R 40%
4 Hey Lyla 1.53 WIN 1.00 +0.53 -0.74 S/R 50%
3 Trueshan 2.37 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 -1.27 S/R 33%
2 Spartan Arrow 1.73 WIN 1.00 +0.73 -0.27 S/R 50%
1 Luxembourg 1.67 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 -1.00 S/R 0%
May: 7 WIN: 4 LOSE: 3 S/R: 57% LOSS: -0.16
(5141211) FINISHED First or Second (71.43%)
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16 Epictetus 1.40 WIN 1.00 +0.40 +1.83 S/R 56%
15 Tenebrism 1.62 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 +1.43 S/R 53%
14 Chaldean 2.25 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 +2.43 S/R 57%
13 Gabriel's Getaway 1.83 WIN 1.00 +0.83 +3.43 S/R 62%
12 Lets Go Champ R4 1.73 WIN 1.00 +0.66 +2.60 S/R 58%
11 Dubai Dawn 1.33 WIN 1.00 +0.33 +1.94 S/R 55%
10 Shishkin 3.00 WIN 1.00 +2.00 +1.61 S/R 50%
9 Red Riding Hoood 1.44 WIN 1.00 +0.44 -0.39 S/R 44%
8 Slipofthepen 1.67 WIN 1.00 +0.67 -0.83 S/R 38%
7 Take No Chances 1.83 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 -1.50 S/R 29%
6 Allegorie De Vassy 1.44 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 -0.50 S/R 33%
5 Berkshire Shadow 2.50 WIN 1.00 +1.50 +0.50 S/R 40%
4 I Giorni (S) 3.00 LOSE 1.50 -1.50 -1.00 S/R 25%
3 Liberalist 3.50 WIN 1.00 +2.50 +0.50 S/R 33%
2 Sea Flawless 1.67 LOSE 1.00 +1.00 -2.00 S/R 0%
1 Chantico 2.37 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 -1.00 S/R 0%
APRIL: 16 WIN: 9 LOSE: 7 S/R: 56% PROFIT: +1.83
(4212123111111U21) FINISHED First or Second (81.25%)
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14 Chance The Robin 1.57 WIN 1.00 +0.57 +1.94 S/R 64%
13 Carrerea 1.91 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 +1.37 S/R 62%
12 Englebert 2.20 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 +2.37 S/R 67%
11 Ed Keeper 2.00 WIN 1.00 +1.00 +3.37 S/R 73%
10 The Same 2.00 WIN 1.00 +1.00 +2.37 S/R 70%
9 March Wind 2.50 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 +1.37 S/R 67%
8 Gail Du Mesnil 2.10 WIN 1.00 +1.10 +2.37 S/R 75%
7 Con'tution Hill 1.44 WIN 1.00 +0.44 +1.27 S/R 71%
6 Coniston George 1.91 WIN 1.00 +0.71 +0.83 S/R 67% R4
5 Go West 2.10 WIN 1.00 +1.10 +0.12 S/R 60%
4 Defence Treaty 2.00 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 -0.98 S/R 50%
3 Star Angel 1.62 WIN 1.00 +0.62 +0.02 S/R 67%
2 Glory Bridge 2.10 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 -0.60 S/R 50%
1 Willmount 1.40 WIN 1.00 +0.40 +0.40 S/R 100%
MARCH: 14 WIN: 9 LOSE: 5 S/R: 64% PROFIT: +1.94
(141L1111211831) FINISHED First or Second (71.43%)
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7 Eternal Hope 2.10 WIN 1.00 +1.10 +2.37 S/R 71%
6 Hurricane Bay 1.53 WIN 1.00 +0.53 +1.27 S/R 67%
5 Kateira 1.91 WIN 1.00 +0.91 +0.74 S/R 60%
4 Bold Endeavour 1.67 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 -0.17 S/R 50%
3 Spring Promise 2.10 WIN 1.00 +1.10 +0.83 S/R 67%
2 Since Day One 1.67 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 -0.27 S/R 50%
1 Luccia 1.73 WIN 1.00 +0.73 +0.73 S/R 100%
FEBRUARY: 7 WIN: 5 LOSE: 2 S/R: 71% PROFIT: +2.37
(1212111) FINISHED First or Second (100%)
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