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KEMPTON RACECOURSE TEMPLATE (Wednesday 10 May 2023)
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The Racing Horse offers our Kempton AW for Wednesday 10 May 2023. There is a 7-race card containing 5 Handicaps & 2 Novice Races. The Polytrack surface is expected to ride standard to slow.
Winning Favourites (5 Years)
Non-handicap Handicap
2yo 106-269 39% -49.05 37-114 32% -7.32
3yo 126-267 47% -24.25 137-470 29% -87.63
4yo+ 44-113 39% -16.70 243-749 32% -40.37
TOTAL 276-649 43% -89.99 417-1333 31% -135.32
TOP 6 TRAINERS at KEMPTON past 5 years +/- E
J & T Gosden (21%) 74-316 23% -59.62 +2% 1
A Balding (15%) 69-415 17% +67.62 +2% 0
R Varian (21%) 60-258 23% -14.73 +2% 2
C Appleby (29%) 55-169 33% -23.89 +4% 0
R Hannon (11%) 52-471 11% -106.56 +0% 2
A Watson (16%) 45-257 18% -59.08 +2% 1
HOT TRAINERS 10/04/2023 to 09/05/2023 +/- E
A Perrett (10%) 3-9 33% +4.50 +23% 1
J & T Gosden (21%) 15-56 27% -9.19 +6% 1
M Stoute (20%) 8-30 27% -1.23 +7% 1
G L Moore (11%) 22-91 24% +3.91 +13% 1
COLD TRAINER SAW R
M Appleby (11%) 55 25 days 1
R Hughes (13%) 28 24 days 1
TOP 5 JOCKEYS at KEMPTON past 5 years +/- R
D Probert (11%) 89-799 11% -124.88 +0% 0
H Doyle (15%) 84-562 15% -77.51 +0% 3
O Murphy (20%) 83-404 21% -51.99 +1% 0
J Doyle (19%) 63-287 22% -6.20 +3% 0
T Marquand (15%) 63-526 12% - 106.03 -3% 0
HOT JOCKEYS 10/04/2023 to 09/05/2023 +/- R
R Havlin (15%) 11-40 28% -1.04 +13% 3
A Voikhansky (11%) 5-22 23% -7.00 +12% 1
COLD JOCKEYS SAW R
N Currie (8%) 54 122 days 1
S Hitchcott (3%) 51 101 days 1
G Rooke (8%) 26 21 days 1
TOP 5 OWNERS at Kempton past 5 years +/- E
Godolphin (25%) 91-326 28% -52.24 +3% 0
Hamdan Maktoum (22%) 31-116 27% +67.81 +5% 0
King Power (14%) 25-135 19% -28.60 +5% 0
Shadwell Est (24%) 15-51 29% +11.49 +5% 0
Ahmed Maktoum (25%) 13-57 23% -12.71 -2% 1
FIXTURES
10 May 2023
24 May 2023
SAW: Since a winner E: Entries R: Rides
RACECOURSE TEMPLATES explained
What is a NATIONAL AVERAGE?
FAVOURITES: Our Kempton Racecourse Template contains a huge sample size (almost 2,000 races) and these figures should be absorbed if not acted upon. Winning favourites at the course over the past 5 years show 693-1982 for a strike rate of 34.96% so about 3% above the national average. A £1 stake on each favourite shows a loss of -215.31 to SP. There is a 12% differential between winning non-handicap favourites and winning handicap favourites (43% v 31%). Best strike rates are 3yo favourites in non-handicaps scoring at 47%, whilst the worst is 3yo winning favourites in handicaps scoring at 29%. The suggestion is to look closely at those 3yo favourites in non-handicaps, just a modicum of filtration would have produced a profit to level stakes.
TRAINERS: At Kempton the best trainers come to the fore, our top 6 trainers at the track have 6 runners and our starting point for the meeting. Tonight we highlight a change in fortune for Roger Varian (20%).
JOCKEYS: Only Hollie Doyle (15%) from our leader board has rides tomorrow. She has not kicked-on in the way we imagined since her return from injury. Yes, she is having winners equal to her national average (18-119 for 15.12% for April and May), but not hitting the heights just yet. She has 3 rides tomorrow and will probably go close in one of them, her rides include HEED THE CALL 6.00, SATIN SNAKE 8.00 & MORE THAN A GREY 8.30. She has 5 rides at Southwell tomorrow and we will cover them with our Southwell Tapeta Racecourse Template.
OWNERS: Only Sheikh Ahmed Al Maktoum (25%) has a runner at this meeting and it looks a winner with MODAARA 6.39 for Roger Varian.
RED FLAG: We reminded members that Roger Varian was about to hit form and that process has started with 3-9 for 33% since Sunday. He has 2 runners at the course tonight and is almost certain to add to that score before kicking-on through May. He has one of the biggest national averages at 20% and with the exception of Southwell AW he scores between 23% and 29% on the AW courses so significantly up on his national average. His two runners tonight are MODAARA 6.30 & LIR SPECIALE 8.00. The advice to our self is if we are not backing them we are not backing against them! He has an interesting runner at Southwell tomorrow in OKAMI 2.25.
PERTINENCE6.00
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| The way the track is prepared at Kempton can play a massive part in whether it suits front-runners or horses coming from behind. Most of the time, the going is officially rated ‘standard’ but I know, from having ridden in America, that all artificial surfaces are dependent on weather conditions. An inside draw is a big advantage on the round course, as you don’t want to be running wide, and there’s a tendency for jockeys to get going a long from home. My preference would be to use patient tactics - Jason Weaver |