YARMOUTH RACECOURSE TEMPLATE (Thursday 1 June 2023)

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The Racing Horse offers our RACECOURSE TEMPLATE for YARMOUTH (Thursday 1 June). There is a 7-race card containing 5 Handicaps, a Maiden and a Novice Race. The going is expected to be good to firm, good in places.

YARMOUTH FAVOURITES (5 years)
Non-handicap                   Handicap
2yo   40-99	40%   -13.21   11-26	42%    +0.59
3yo   34-70	49%    +2.27   86-214	40%   +16.36
4yo+   1-8	13%    -5.00   68-234	29%   -34.00
TOTAL 75-177	42%   -15.94   165-474	35%   -17.05

TOP 5 TRAINERS at YARMOUTH last 5 years      +/-   E  
W Haggas (23%)     26-113  23%    -7.44      +0%   0 
J & T Gosden (22%) 20-74   27%    +7.77      +5%   2   
C Wall (16%)	   20-101  20%   -10.15      +4%   0   
M Bell (13%)       19-111  17%   -18.88      +4%   0  
R Varian (20%)     16-92   17%   -27.98      -2%   0  

HOT TRAINERS 02/05/2023 to 31/05/2023        +/-   E  
M Prescott (16%)   8-12	   67%	  +7.00     +51%   1
J & T Gosden (22%) 19-77   25%	 +18.62      +3%   2
S bin Suroor (21%) 2-9	   22%	 +11.50      +1%   1
A Haynes (13%)	   10-51   20%	 -9.69       +7%   1

COLD LIST TRAINERS  SAW                            E 
S Dixon	(7%)         30    22 days                 2
H Spiller (9%)	     23    81 days                 1           

TOP 5 JOCKEYS at YARMOUTH last 5 years       +/-   R
T Marquand (15%) 31-167   19%   +1.49        +4%   5
H Doyle (15%)    30-113   27%  +59.94       +12%   0     
W Buick (23%)    24-111   22%  +24.37        -1%   3
J Mitchell (17%) 24-130   18%   -1.10        +1%   0     
R Havlin (15%)   23-118   19%  +18.36        +4%   1
 
HOT JOCKEYS 02/05/2023 to 31/05/2023         +/-   R
K O'Neill (9%)	9-52	17%    +34.88        +8%   1

COLD LIST JOCKEYS   SAW                            R
S Cherchi (10%)	     93   145 days                 1
R Ffrench (2%)	     39   122 days                 1
A Kirby (14%)	     25    54 days                 3

TOP 5 OWNERS at YARMOUTH last 5 years        +/-   E
Godolphin (25%)        19-80  24%   -27.58   -1%   2     
H'dan Al Maktoum (21%) 9-39   23%    +2.25   +2%   0     
Shadwell Estate (23%)  7-26   27%    +5.23   +4%   0  
Massie & McBride (21%) 6-14   43%   +14.00  +22%   0
Moh Al Maktoum (15%)   6-25   24%    +3.45   +9%   0

FIXTURES
Thursday 1 June 2023	
Thursday 8 June 2023
Wednesday 14 June 2023	
Thursday 15 June 2023	
Friday 30 June 2023

Upcoming Racecourse Templates:
Epsom (Friday)

RACECOURSE TEMPLATES expained
What is a NATIONAL AVERAGE?
How to PROFIT from the PACAFI

COURSE: A narrow, left-handed, oval track, about 13f in extent, with a run-in of 5 furlongs. There is a straight mile course. Apart from a slight fall just before the run-in, the track is perfectly flat, with sharpish bends. The straight was levelled to remove surface undulations and then resurfaced in 2015.

FAVOURITES: Winning favourites at Yarmouth over the past 5 years show 240-651 for 36.87% and a level stake loss of -£32.99 to a £1 stake. Winning favourites in non-handicaps score 75-177 for 42% (-£15.94) whilst winning favourites in handicaps score  165-474 for 35% (-£17.05) so an 7% differential. Best category for winning strike rate is clearly the 3yo winning favourites in non-handicaps who have recorded 34-70 for a big 49% and a level stake profit of +£2.27. BUT, the figures are punter-friendly towards juveniles in handicaps also scoring 97-240 for 40.42% and a profit of +£16.95. These are attractive numbers for handicaps and worth absorbing though we appreciate we only have 651-race sample so not the biggest.

TRAINERS: Some of our best trainers have runners here tomorrow including Charlie Appleby (29%), J & T Gosden (22%) , Saeed bin Suroor (21%), Andrew Balding (15%), Michael Stoute (20%), Mark Prescott (16%) and then Richard Hannon (11%) and Charlie Johnston (13%) and there must be multiple winners coming from this grouping .

JOCKEYS: As per the above, some of our best jockeys are in attendance also! Tom Marquand (15%) has 5 rides whilst William Buick (23%) has 3 rides.

OWNERS: As we go to post Godolphin (25%) has 2 entries in the same race, they are ROYAL ARMY & INNER CITY 2.30. The former is trained by Saeed bin Suroor and the latter Charlie Appleby. Will they both stand their ground?

RED FLAG: Interesting how the strike rate of John Gosden went down from a 25% national average to 21% since Thady officially joined the partnership. Most of the figures (but not all) at the racecourses have also dipped slightly from the previous scores of John Gosden and Yarmouth is a case in point! The last 5 years of J Gosden at Yarmouth shows 19-50 for 38% (+9.55) whilst J & T Gosden score 20-74 for 27% (+7.77). Clearly Team Gosden like to have runners and winners at this course and aggregate 39-124 for 31.45% and a level stake profit of +17.32 over the past 5 years so they are the top trainer/s at the track and ahead of William Haggas.

The Gosden figures are well worth a log under the heading follow and filter. As we post our first draft the team have 2 runners including GHARA 3.30 (PACAFI) & LADY EROS 4.00 so well worth a serious look. Strange that Andrea Atzeni (16%) has been booked to ride Ghara yet Benoit De La Sayette rides one for Patrick Owens. Atzeni is 2-7 for 29% (+6.50) for the stable and this is his only ride of the day. Oisin Murphy is booked to ride Lady Eros.

BY THE WAY: It can be tough for jockeys. Andrea Atzeni had a spell of riding over 100+ winners in a year but has been down on those figures since 2018. Then last year he lost some good rides and as a consequence 2023 has seen him struggle, scoring just 18-145 for 12%. His national average is 16% so significantly below that strike rate. At one time we imagined Benoit De La Sayette taking up the slack for the Gosdens, but now we are not so sure. With Frankie Dettori retiring and Rob Havlin now a veteran there is a space to be had and a very lucrative one!

BY THE WAY 2: Our horse WURLITZER runs tomorrow in the 6.10 Market Rasen Blockfree Services Novices' Hurdle (Class 4) 2m. There are 7 runners and Tom Bellamy is booked to ride. Wurlitzer wears sheepskin cheekpieces. 

Alan King has told us Wurlitzer has been working and schooling well over hurdles since his hurdling debut at Worcester, where he ran well enough to finish sixth. He hopes he can build on that effort on his favoured fast ground at Market Rasen, as this is not nearly as strong a race as he competed in last time. King told us Carrarea is clearly the one to beat, and he hopes Wurlitzer can run well, with cheekpieces reapplied to encourage him to apply himself. 

The Racing Horse View: CARRAREA is an Irish import who won over this course and distance last time. He is rated 122, which sets a fair standard. Saint Jaguen finished 4th & 5th in two bumpers. Outsmart was rated 80 at his peak on the Flat, having won over both 1m & 1m2f and will also like the fast ground. 

Members will remember Wurlitzer was pretty unreliable on the Flat and did not put it all in, but ran well enough in his first hurdle race at Worcester on 8 May. His jumping was very careful on that occasion, and we hope he will be prepared to attack the hurdles more in this race. Clearly Carrarea looks the one to beat, but if all goes to plan, we hope Wurlitzer can chase him home, if putting his best foot forward. We consider a value price to be 7/1 but we are racing for second place against Saint Jaguen.

TIMEFORM COMMENTS: CARRAREA landed the odds over this C&D recently and is presented with a good opportunity to double his tally in this sphere. If there is one capable of posing a threat, it may well be Saint Jaguen, who stepped up on his debut effort when fourth in a Warwick bumper and he should have a future over jumps. Wurlitzer and hurdles-debutant Outsmart can do battle for minor honours

PERTINENCE

2.00
EYES (J Macey) Creditable 2nd of 8 in Newcastle Handicap over 7f 23 days ago. 0-10 on turf but clearly effective here (placed on 5-6 previous visits to this course), Lewis Edmunds rides
ARLO'S SUNSHINE (Charalambous & Clutterbuck) Both turf wins gained over C&D, the latest in April. Jamie Spencer rides
FILLYFUDGE (Amy Murphy) Lightly-raced maiden on Flat, market check advised, Adam Kirby rides

2.30
INNER CITY (C Appleby) 142 of Dubawi's progeny have won on debut, trainer has won all 3 runnings, William Buick rides
QUATRE BRAS (J Chapple-Hyam) trainer +£106.00 with debutants, Marco Ghiani rides
ROYAL ARMY (Saeed bin Suroor) Masar colt and 2nd Godolphin runner in the race, must be respected, Richard Kingscote rides

3.00
ROGUE TORNADO (T Clover) Well bred, looks possible improver upped in trip on handicap debut, market check essential, David Egan rides
DAMASCUS STEEL (E Dunlop) winner in the last 7 days, last 4 runs show 2221, Rob Havlin rides and 41% on favourites
TROOPER BISDEE (M Prescott) drops from Class 4 to Class 6, 80/1. 200/1, 200/1 last 3 runs. Hot trainer 25% with horses 10f+ and  23% with handicap debutants, Thore Hammer Hansen rides

3.30
GHARA (J & T Gosden) Frankel filly, hot trainer and 27% at the course, Andrea Atzeni rides and 34% on favourites
KING OF THE PLAINS (C Johnston) drops from Class 2 to Class 4, Oisin Murphy rides

4.00
LADY EROS (J & T Gosden) hot trainer who is 27% at the course, Oisin Murphy rides and 36% on favourites
BLING ON THE MUSIC (E Walker) drops from Class 2 to Class 4, Tom Marquand rides
UNITED FRONT (M Appleby) drops from Class 2 to Class 4, William Buick rides

4.30
CANCAN IN THE RAIN (C Johnston) C&D winner, formerly with C Dwyer, beaten favourite next time out, Richard Kingscote rides
RED TREASURE (E Dunlop) drops from Class 2 to Class 5, Oisin Murphy rides
JURYMAN (W Jarvis) trainer +£73.31 when one runner at a meeting, William Buick rides

5.00
CRACK REGIMENT (H Spiller) trainer no winner for 81 days, good 2nd of 12 in Kempton Handicap (7f, 7/1) 45 days ago, just failing. Big chance off the same mark here, Cieren Fallon rides
HARBOUR VISION (S Dixon) trainer 0-30 over 22 days, good 2nd of 9 in handicap at this C&D (good to firm, 33/1) 8 days ago, Elisha Whittington rides
MASTER CLASS (D Simcock) better for Southwell spin now 2lb lower mark, Jamie Spencer rides

JASON WEAVER on YARMOUTH 

If the recent relaying work at Yarmouth restores the course to what it used to be, which is obviously the idea, it could be one of the best galloping tracks in Britain. Yes, it had developed ridges, hence the changes they’ve made, but it’s a lovely fair course. The home straight is big and long, giving jockeys plenty of time from the turn in, and, if it’s going to be even flatter than of old when the relaying is complete, you might just get a few hard-luck stories tight on the far rail. Otherwise, it’s beautiful to ride.

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