LINGFIELD RACECOURSE TEMPLATE (Tuesday 6 June 2023)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

The Racing Horse offers our LINGFIELD AW RACECOURSE TEMPLATE for Tuesday 6 June 2023. There is a 7-race card containing 5 Handicaps, a Novice Race and a Classified Stakes Race. The going is expected to be standard.

WINNING FAVOURITES (5 years)
Non-handicap                    Handicap
2yo    68-144	47%   +12.01	17-47	  36%	  -5.49
3yo   130-260	50%    -2.79	136-440	  31%	 -70.67
4yo+   78-146	53%   +28.22	273-911	  30%	-144.28
TOTAL 276-550	50%   +37.44	426-1398  30%	-220.43

TOP 5 TRAINERS at LINGFIELD for past 5 years    +/-   R
A Watson (16%)	49-289	 17%	-65.73          +1%   1     
R Hannon (11%)	45-380	 12%	-95.42          +1%   2    
A Balding (15%)	44-213	 21%	+26.49          +6%   0      
G Moore (11%)	41-328	 13%	-61.16          +2%   1     
W Haggas (23%)  32-138   23%    -34.15          +0%   0

HOT TRAINERS 07/05/2023 to 05/06/2023           +/-   E
M Prescott (17%)   11-18   61%	   +7.00       +44%   1
A Perrett (10%)	   4-13    31%	  +20.38       +21%   1
J & T Gosden (22%) 23-83   28%	  +27.62        +6%   2
R Beckett (17%)	   19-87   22%	   -3.42        +5%   1
G L Moore (11%)	   13-65   20%	   -1.00        +9%   1

COLD LIST TRAINERS  SAW                               E
M Usher	(7%)         41     69 days                   2
Mrs L Mongan (4%)    42    164 days                   3

TOP 5 JOCKEYS at LINGFIELD for past 5 years     +/-   R
L Morris (9%)	  79-781   10%	  -110.57       +1%   0  
H Doyle (15%)	  75-488   15%	  -117.37       +0%   0  
D Probert (11%)	  75-574   13%	   -13.76       +2%   0  
R Kingscote (14%) 58-332   17%	   -87.78       +3%   0 
A Kirby	(14%)     54-353   15%	   -89.41       +1%   0 

HOT JOCKEYS 07/05/2023 to 05/06/2023            +/-   R
T Hammer Hansen (10%) 4-13   31%    +0.42      +21%   3
N Callan (15%)	     14-65   22%    -4.20       +7%   6
T Whelan (8%)	      9-46   20%    +9.20      +12%   2
B Sayette (18%)	     11-61   18%   +15.95       +0%   2

TOP 5 OWNERS at LINGFIELD for past 5 years      +/-   E
Godolphin (25%)        41-139  29%   -2.14      +4%   0  
Hamdan A Maktoum (22%) 16-52   31%   +0.52      +9%   0  
S bin A Maktoum (15%)  14-61   23%  +19.12      +8%   0
Power Geneva (16%)     14-72   19%  +23.91      +3%   0  
King Power (14%)       14-87   16%  -47.17      +2%   0  
 
FIXTURES
Tuesday 6 June 2023
Saturday 10 June 2023

E: Entries R: Rides SAW: Since a win

RACECOURSE TEMPLATES explained
What is a NATIONAL AVERAGE?
How to PROFIT from the PACAFI

SURFACE: Lingfield AW Racecourse uses Polytrack, the most popular choice of surfaces for AW tracks in the UK. Trainers prefer Polytrack over everything else because it is the fairest surface for horses to race on. This fast surface has little jar with virtually no kickback, meaning horses can enjoy their racing, and because it quickly regains its shape after racing there is less stress on tendons.

FAVOURITES: Winning favourites at Lingfield over the past 5 years show 696-1933 for 36.09% and a loss of -191.08. All Racecourse Templates are relevant, contextual and pertinent but members have a real edge at Lingfield! Winning favourites in non-handicaps score 275-550 for a massive 50% and a level stake profit of +£37.44 to a £1 stake. We know just a modicum of filtration improves those figures considerably and one of our most profitable racecourses.

TRAINERS: We have 4 trainers likely to win races for this Lingfield Meeting. Ed Dunlop (10%) is in top form with his horses scoring 8-29 for 28% over the past 14 days and 10 winners in May, he runs 2 at Lingfield with INTOXICATA 5.30 & GREEK GIANT 8.10 whilst he also sends one to Wetherby re HARRIET'S ANGEL 7.20.

Mark Prescott (16%) is in fantastic form for May and June showing 6-10 for 60% (+7.68) and 3-8 for 38% (+1.75) respectively. He will be looking to win the night-cap with GLENISTER. Both of his wins at 1m2f on the AW here, with the latest on Saturday and although he carries a penalty the step up to 1m4f should suit. Won his first race back after a break (256 days) and win surgery (5 October). He has an entry at Chelmsford over 1m6f later in the week. The trainer also runs BRAVE KNIGHT 4.35 Leicester and a real chance of a win double.

J & T Gosden (22%) are another team flying at the moment with their last 14 days showing 12-39 for 31%. They must go close again today at this course with POINT ATTACK 6.00 & DARK KESTREL 7.00, they also run ZIRYAB 4.00 Leicester and a chance of a win double also. The team are very competitive at Lingfield showing 21-85 for 25%, but those figures include 22 second places, so 43-85 for 51% finish in the first two.

Richard Hannon (11%) sits second on the leader board for Lingfield, is currently 0-13 but with 5 second places, and has 2 runners in PACKARD 6.00 & LULWORTH CODE 7.00.

JOCKEYS: None of the top jockeys at the track have a ride tomorrow.

OWNERS: None of the top owners at the track have a runner tomorrow.

RED FLAG: Richard Hughes (13%) promised us the earth when he started training, but he is not a trainer we can get a handle on, he just disappoints and has done so since starting up with Shane Kelly as stable jockey. He largely dines out on the AW tracks and in the poorer races. At Lingfield scores 35-245 for 14%, but his best turf course for winners is Bath with just 8.

June:  0-2     0%     -2.00
May:   1-41    2%    -37.00
April: 1-22    5%    -20.00
Total: 2-65    3%    -59.00

He has 2 runners at the course today in MISSING YOU 6.30 & FADI 8.10.

BY THE WAY: These figures sums up the career of Hughes to date:

Group123    0-24       0%     -24.00
Listed      1-48       2%     -35.00

Apprentice 11-107     10%     -41.25
Claiming    5-27      19%     -10.24
Selling    10-41      24%      -1.96

Handicap  241-1956    12%    -437.35

Maiden     57-383     15%    -139.51
Novice     69-538     13%     -99.01

It is hard to believe that a proper racing man like Hughes could be 1-72 in Listed & Group Races given his connections. In fact his best strike-rates are in Claiming and Selling Races where he scores 15-68 for 22% (-12.20). His national average shows 13% but in context to the above that cannot be considered success!

Regarding context: 

RICHARD HUGHES (Flawed Operation)

RICHARD HUGHES (Revisited)

PERTINENCE

5.30
HARRY THE HAGLER (S Williams) runner-up effort over C&D reads very well in the context of this race, Rossa Ryan rides
SAO TIMOTHY (R Stephens) trainer +£97.00 with horses running after a break, and £98.24 when one runner at a meeting, Darragh Keenan rides
POPPAEA (C Hills) trainer +£41.60 when one runner at a meeting, Jim Crowley rides

6.00 (Winning favourites: 47%)
POINT OF ATTACK (J & T Gosden) trainer +£54.32 with debutants, Rob Havlin rides
PACKARD (R Hannon) beaten favourite last time out, Kevin Stott rides
STARLUST (R Beckett)  yard 4-15 for 27% (+7.70) with 2yos this year, Rossa Ryan rides

6.30
IMPERIOUSITY (A Perrett) hot trainer, Jim Crowley rides
VICTORS DREAM (M Botti) beaten favourite last time out, trainer +£27.85 when one runner at a meeting, Neil Callan rides
MORBOKA (G Boughey) trainer 21% with handicap debutants, Tommie Jakes (7) rides

7.00
DARK KESTREL (J & T Gosden) Wind Surgery 22 Sept, Gelded 17 Oct, winner at Doncaster 20 May, handicap debut, Rob Havlin rides and 41% on favourites - of real interest 11/8 with William Hill...
SHE'S CENTIMENTAL (A Haynes) form figures on Tapeta read 2111, Thore Hammer Hansen rides

7.35
GRANDFATHER TOM (R Cowell) C&D winner and a winner in the last 7 days, Aidan Keeley rides
MARY OF MODENA (M Attwater) career best when winning 7-runner Windsor Handicap at Windsor 29 days ago. 4 lb rise fair and she performed well over 6f here in March, Paddy Bradley (3) rides

8.10
GREEK GIANT (E Dunlop) beaten favourite last time out, Rossa Ryan rides and 38% on favourites
ASENSE (G Moore) trainer +386.74 when one runner at a meeting, Harry Davies (3) rides

8.45
GLENISTER (M Prescott) winner in the last 7 days, trainer 25% with horses racing 10f+ and Thore Hammer Hansen rides
MARION'S BOY (R Teal) weighted to win 75 > 70, trainer +£105.04 when one runner at a meeting, Jim Crowley rides and 24% at the track

JASON WEAVER on LINGFIELD

Lingfield’s 1m 2f all-weather start is a tough one, very draw-dependent. The same is true of the 5f and 6f starts. I always think it’s a track that lends itself to riding in the ‘third wave’. In races over 1m, for example, the first wave will go with maybe 5f left, round the initial turn, while the second wave will kick into the home straight. The third wave - the George Baker wave - usually attacks at the 1f pole and often comes out best. You don’t want to be way out of your ground, but patience can pay - Jason Weaver

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DAVID PROBERT on LINGFIELD

It's probably the most idiosyncratic of the AW tracks because of the hill. It's pretty level from the mile and a quarter start and down the back, but from the 4 furlong to the 2 furlong poles you're running down that hill. Some horses don't handle the hill which makes it a tricky track to ride; many of the jockeys will start to make their move at about the three - halfway down the hill, on the home bend - trying to get some of their rivals off balance. That's where you'll see most of the manoeuvres, jostling for position, trying to either get an inside run or slingshot off the bend if a little wider.

In 5f & 6f handicaps, you want to be handy, and perhaps ideally with a middle draw to cut the corner a little. That gives you the most options. They're both tricky starts, the five in a little chute on the crown of the bend, and the six just before the bend on the main track. Inside draws need to be very quick away and edge right a bit to get a position, because if you don't you'll be in a pocket and it'll be hard. The 6f trip is a bit more forgiving because you've got half a furlong or so before the bend, but you still need to jump and get a position quickly.

But over longer trips, certainly beyond a mile, it's very hard to make the running and win. I try and sit third or fourth, and one off the rail. If you're on the rail you can get boxed in as horses vie for positions and then you have to wait for them to pass before making your run. It's certainly a tricky track and one where you need to be in the right place at the right time.

Lane wise, it's pretty fair in the straight: I've seen horses coming up the rail to win, and horses fanning wide and winning, so there doesn't seem to be any advantage to one or other path in the last quarter. And the kickback is mild, probably the least of all the all weather circuits.

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