WINDSOR FAVOURITES (5 years)
Non-handicap                  Handicap
2yo   46-105	44%   +4.69   4-13	31%    -1.50
3yo   49-105	47%   -3.92   61-217	28%   -51.06
4yo+   5-17	29%   -8.46   78-244	32%    +1.95
TOTAL 100-227	44%   -7.69   143-474	30%   -50.61

TOP 5 TRAINERS at Windsor last 5 years       +/-   E
R Hannon (11%)	   37-243   15%	  +10.74     +4%   3              
A Balding (15%)	   27-138   20%	  -16.99     +4%   2           
W Haggas (23%)	   25-81    31%	   +0.44     +8%   2          
R Beckett (17%)    20-117   17%    -0.33     +0%   3         
E J Houghton (12%) 18-131   14%	  -36.70     +2%   1           

C Appleby (29%)    10-21    48%    +2.87    +19%   0
  	
HOT TRAINERS 13/05/2023 to 11/06/2023        +/-   E
H Candy (11%)      6-19	   32%	  +22.50    +21%   1
O Burrows (20%)	   4-15	   27%	   +2.29     +7%   1
J & T Gosden (22%) 22-85   26%	  +13.94     +4%   1
R Beckett (17%)	   21-87   24%	   +3.76     +7%   3

COLD LIST TRAINERS   SAW                           E
H Morrison (12%)      26    19 days                1
P & O Cole (12%)      21    23 days                1                     

TOP 5 JOCKEYS at Windsor last 5 years        +/-   R 
T Marquand (15%) 50-277	  18%	 +99.93      +3%   6        
O Murphy (20%)	 47-236   20%	 -41.04      +0%   0        
J Doyle (19%)	 25-98	  26%	 +30.66      +7%   2 
W Buick (23%)    23-85    27%     +5.18      +2%   5    
S Levey (12%)	 23-156	  15%	 -16.46      +3%   3    

HOT JOCKEYS 13/05/2023 to 11/06/2023         +/-   R
T Whelan (8%)    10-45	   22%	 +12.20     +14%   1
R Havlin (15%)   14-72	   19%	  +3.40      +4%   3

COLD LIST JOCKEYS   SAW                            R
D Costello (8%)      33    29 days                 2          
                         
TOP 5 OWNERS at Windsor last 5 years         +/-   E
Godolphin (25%)	     15-56   27%   -14.77    +2%   0               
King Power (14%)     10-55   18%   -11.75    +4%   1            
Ahmed A Maktoum (25%) 9-29   31%   +29.47    +7%   1         
Cheveley Park (16%)   8-31   26%    +7.16   +10%   0            
Amo Racing (18%)      7-21   33%   +23.81   +15%   1    

Next fixtures
Monday 12 June 2023
Monday 19 June 2023
Monday 26 June 2023
Saturday 1 July 2023
Sunday 2 July 2023

Upcoming Racecourse Templates:
Windsor (Monday)
Southwell AW (Tuesday)
Kempton AW (Wednesday)

RACECOURSE TEMPLATES explained
What is a NATIONAL AVERAGE?
How to PROFIT from the PACAFI

WINDSOR RACECOURSE: This racecourse is idiosyncratic and a bit of a contradiction. Whilst the course is perfectly flat throughout and sharp in character, the length of the run-in is nearly five furlongs meaning galloping sorts are not inconvenienced. Personally, we do not back horses at this course on soft to heavy, or heavy ground though we occasional lay false favourites with a poor draw and a lesser jockey. Jockey bookings are always important, but when racing here on soft to heavy ground jockey bookings are critical.

RACECOURSE TEMPLATES: Some Racecourse Templates have bigger samples than others, and of course the bigger the sample is the better and more reliable the figures are. Windsor provides 701 races over the past 5 years, so more than a robust sample and one we can trust in a relative sense!

FAVOURITES: Winning favourites at Windsor over the past 5 years show 243-701 for a strike rate of 34.67% and a level stake loss of -58.30, so winning at around 3% above the national average. Favourites in non-handicaps win 100-227 for 44% (-7.69) but 2yos & 3yos in that category fare a little better scoring 95-210 at 45.24% and a profit of +0.77 and with a little filtration, one of our favourite angles in.

TRAINERS: Interesting that all top 5 trainers at the track have runners and these 11 entries must provide a winner or two at least and probably the best angle in. If we combine the 3 other hot trainers to the mix it looks likely these 8 trainers will dominate the card and have multiple winners between them!

JOCKEYS: Tom Marquand (15%) has 6 rides tomorrow, William Buick (23%) has 5, whilst James Doyle (19%) has 2.

OWNERS: Following the leader owners at a particular racecourse is always a source of winners and something we naturally filter and process. King Power (14%) have a single entry in LOVE YOU GRANDPA 8.10 and trained by Michael Stoute.

Sheikh Ahmed Al Maktoum (25%) runs ELRAAED 6.10 and trained by hot trainer Owen Burrows.

Amo Racing (18%) run PAINITE 5.40 and trained by Richard Hannon. 

RED FLAG: We need to take a look at Hugo Palmer (14%) who is massively under-performing currently and this situation must change sooner rather than later. Our intention is to hit his runners/winners on the upswing and make a profit from our mathematical core and observations. Just to recap, in March 2022 he took up the reins at Manor House Stables, Malpas, Cheshire and this was supposed to have elevated his career further from its very good start. Everyone accepted he would need some bedding-in time, but that should have happened by now given the ammunition and resources at his disposal. He must now be under some pressure to succeed!

For the record, 2022 showed him 43-419 for 10% (-187.78) so although a 4% drop on his national average, it represents a base of sorts from which to kick-on! For years 2021, 2020 & 2019 he scored 54 winners each year for strike rates of 16%, 19% & 14% consecutively. His best year for winners was 2018 where he registered 87 winners. So in context, his figures for 2023 are particularly disappointing, even more so if we set aside his January figures:

June:     0-16     0%    -16.00
May:      5-65     8%    -31.63
April:    3-31    10%     +1.00
March:    2-10    20%     -2.67
February: 1-12     8%     -9.75
January:  7-24    29%    +16.58
Total:   18-158   11%    -42.47

Considering we are almost halfway through June the 11% strike rate is poor and the wins recorded are in those poorer races. His move to the Manor House Stables was to take him on an upward curve but this has not happened yet. That said, we refuse to believe the sum of those parts are a reflection on his training or quality of horses in his possession.

The best trainers have a stock of good juveniles and a yardstick of things going forward. To date for this current year Palmer shows 2-18 for 11% with his 2yos on turf, 0-0 on the AW. His 3yos show 3-53 on turf for 5.7% and 1-29 for 3.4% on the AW. What's going on? There must be an upturn starting from now and then for the rest of the year. His last 14 days show 1-19 for 5% and 18 runners without a winner over a period of 12 days. He has 2 runners at Windsor tomorrow and we urge members to filter and follow from here, he will come good: SOUTH KENSINGTON 5.40 & SIR RAJ 6.40 both have winning chances and especially the first named.

The trainer has 2 entries for Southwell AW on Tuesday and we will follow up these notes on the template...

Windsor’s bottom turn has been christened ‘carnage corner’ and you can get into all sorts of trouble if the one in front slows down there, causing a concertina effect. It’s a sharp right-hander and if you employ different tactics, kicking-on on a front-runner there, you can really get those behind you at it, especially anybody caught wide. You need a balanced horses at Windsor, even though the course is flat, and a ballsy ride can pay dividends, because a path can often open up late-on on the stands’ rail - Jason Weaver