Irish Stallion Farms EBF Mares 2m2f
Trainer Form: 13-21 for 62% (10)
National Average: 28% (10)
Course Strike Rate: 35% (10)
OR & RPR: NA (10)
Distance: 2m+ (10)
Optimum Ground: Good (10)
Jockey: Patrick Mullins (10)
National Average: 33% (10)
Course Strike Rate: 55% (10)
Trainer/Jockey Combo: 36% (10)
Total: (100)
The Racing Horse cannot remember seeing a composite board with such high numbers included! Members will note we do not nominate unraced horses but have made an exception on this occasion.
Daughter of Quevega
Aurora Vega is a Walk In The Park mare and a full sister to the brilliant Cheltenham Champion Bumper winner (4-4 NHF) and very smart hurdler Facile Vega. She is the third foal out of the brilliant 6-time Cheltenham Festival heroine Quevega and bids to become her third winner from as many runners. Aurora Vega will surely make a winning start before going on to better things. How far she goes, we cannot know at this stage but we are excited about seeing her on the racecourse tomorrow!
Plenty of ability at home - Willie Mullins
It is unusual for a 5yo mare like this to debut at this time of year casting doubts about her perceived class, but it is our opinion the trainer wants to play down expectation and seeks a low-key venue and race to get the ball rolling. His words seem sober but authoritative and he tells us: "Aurora Vega makes her debut in the mares bumper over 2m2f. She is out of Quevega and hopefully she will emulate her two older siblings by winning first time out. She shows plenty of ability at home and we are looking forward to seeing her on the track."
Rivals
Homebred Littlebiggie won well against exposed but experienced rivals at Stradbally and having proven ability, being race-fit and suited by a sound surface, should run well. Come And See is a half-sister to a bumper/five-time winner while homebred Missea's half-brother was a useful staying eight-time winner. Cloudy Waters was a 2,000gns cast-off purchase from Godolphin last November and is best watched while River Robe showed some ability on hurdles debut.
Trainer Form
Aurora makes her debut with her trainer in fabulous form. The last 14 days show Willie Mullins 11-17 for 65% so travelling 37% above his national average. At Sligo he scores 12-34 for 35% (-7.87), and when he combines with son Patrick they record 151-423 for 36%.
Timeform
AURORA VEGA is a full sister to a Champion Bumper winner and starts out in a weak race, so she's fully expected to make a successful start. Littlebiggie is the obvious danger on the back of a point win.
Value
Not sure how many members were able to take advantage of 1.45 to 1.51 on the Betfair Exchange but that MUST be value for this mare in this race! We accept most of our members will not be remotely interested in 4/11 but we believe the mare will start at around 1/4.
By the way
Returning to her running at this time of year on fast ground we are reminded Quevega was never fond of soft to heavy ground and the reason she was lightly raced herself. Willie Mullins ran Princess Vega in a Maiden Hurdle for her debut and that was on good ground and she won. There must be a reason but we cannot understand why her next three races (before going to the paddocks herself) was on soft, heavy and soft ground or the type of races she was entered in. She finished 8/9, pulled up & fell. Bizarre stuff!
The next progeny down the line for Quevega is a 4yo Camelot filly, a 3yo Australia filly, and then there's a Walk In The Park yearling colt, so a full brother to Facile Vega and Aurora Vega. Interesting times...
***
7 Aurora Vega 1.36 WIN 1.00 +0.36 +0.67 S/R 57%
6 Mojeyrr 1.91 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 +0.31 S/R 50%
5 Wind In Your Sail 2.25 WIN 1.00 +1.25 +1.31 S/R 60%
4 Basford 1.67 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 +0.16 S/R 50%
3 Je Ne Sais Quoi 2.37 WIN 1.00 +1.25 +1.16 S/R 67%
2 Military Order 6.00 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 -0.09 S/R 50%
1 Ghara 1.91 WIN 1.00 +0.91 +0.91 S/R 100%
June: 7 WIN: 4 LOSE: 3 S/R: 57% PROFIT: +0.67
(1L121L1) FINISHED First or Second (71.43%)
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21 Ocean Runner 2.50 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 -4.31 S/R 48%
20 Tahiyra 1.50 WIN 1.00 +0.50 -3.31 S/R 50%
19 Ajp Kingdom 1.67 WIN 1.00 +0.67 -3.81 S/R 47%
18 Jaytee R4 2.20 WIN 1.00 +1.08 -4.48 S/R 44%
17 Horantzau D'Airy 1.53 WIN 1.00 +0.53 -5.56 S/R 41%
16 Dubai Dawn 3.50 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 -6.09 S/R 38%
15 Belsito 3.00 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 -5.09 S/R 40%
14 Almaty Star 1.73 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 -4.09 S/R 43%
13 Silver Lady (S) 3.00 LOSE 1.30 -1.30 -3.09 S/R 46%
12 Wedgewood 1.73 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 -1.79 S/R 50%
11 Shayekh 2.20 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 -0.79 S/R 56%
10 Aviewtosea 3.50 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 +0.21 S/R 60%
9 Choccabloc 1.80 WIN 1.00 +0.80 +1.21 S/R 67%
8 Ballyporeen 1.57 WIN 1.00 +0.57 +0.41 S/R 63%
7 Coppice 1.50 WIN 1.00 +0.50 -0.16 S/R 57%
6 Adayar R4 2.20 WIN 1.00 +1.08 -0.66 S/R 50%
5 Native Trail 2.25 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 -1.74 S/R 40%
4 Hey Lyla 1.53 WIN 1.00 +0.53 -0.74 S/R 50%
3 Trueshan 2.37 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 -1.27 S/R 33%
2 Spartan Arrow 1.73 WIN 1.00 +0.73 -0.27 S/R 50%
1 Luxembourg 1.67 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 -1.00 S/R 0%
May: 21 WIN: 10 LOSE: 11 S/R: 48% LOSS: -4.31
(51412111132333511119) FINISHED First or Second (61.90%)
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16 Epictetus 1.40 WIN 1.00 +0.40 +1.83 S/R 56%
15 Tenebrism 1.62 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 +1.43 S/R 53%
14 Chaldean 2.25 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 +2.43 S/R 57%
13 Gabriel's Getaway 1.83 WIN 1.00 +0.83 +3.43 S/R 62%
12 Lets Go Champ R4 1.73 WIN 1.00 +0.66 +2.60 S/R 58%
11 Dubai Dawn 1.33 WIN 1.00 +0.33 +1.94 S/R 55%
10 Shishkin 3.00 WIN 1.00 +2.00 +1.61 S/R 50%
9 Red Riding Hoood 1.44 WIN 1.00 +0.44 -0.39 S/R 44%
8 Slipofthepen 1.67 WIN 1.00 +0.67 -0.83 S/R 38%
7 Take No Chances 1.83 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 -1.50 S/R 29%
6 Allegorie De Vassy 1.44 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 -0.50 S/R 33%
5 Berkshire Shadow 2.50 WIN 1.00 +1.50 +0.50 S/R 40%
4 I Giorni (S) 3.00 LOSE 1.50 -1.50 -1.00 S/R 25%
3 Liberalist 3.50 WIN 1.00 +2.50 +0.50 S/R 33%
2 Sea Flawless 1.67 LOSE 1.00 +1.00 -2.00 S/R 0%
1 Chantico 2.37 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 -1.00 S/R 0%
APRIL: 16 WIN: 9 LOSE: 7 S/R: 56% PROFIT: +1.83
(4212123111111U21) FINISHED First or Second (81.25%)
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14 Chance The Robin 1.57 WIN 1.00 +0.57 +1.94 S/R 64%
13 Carrerea 1.91 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 +1.37 S/R 62%
12 Englebert 2.20 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 +2.37 S/R 67%
11 Ed Keeper 2.00 WIN 1.00 +1.00 +3.37 S/R 73%
10 The Same 2.00 WIN 1.00 +1.00 +2.37 S/R 70%
9 March Wind 2.50 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 +1.37 S/R 67%
8 Gail Du Mesnil 2.10 WIN 1.00 +1.10 +2.37 S/R 75%
7 Con'tution Hill 1.44 WIN 1.00 +0.44 +1.27 S/R 71%
6 Coniston George 1.91 WIN 1.00 +0.71 +0.83 S/R 67% R4
5 Go West 2.10 WIN 1.00 +1.10 +0.12 S/R 60%
4 Defence Treaty 2.00 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 -0.98 S/R 50%
3 Star Angel 1.62 WIN 1.00 +0.62 +0.02 S/R 67%
2 Glory Bridge 2.10 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 -0.60 S/R 50%
1 Willmount 1.40 WIN 1.00 +0.40 +0.40 S/R 100%
MARCH: 14 WIN: 9 LOSE: 5 S/R: 64% PROFIT: +1.94
(141L1111211831) FINISHED First or Second (71.43%)
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7 Eternal Hope 2.10 WIN 1.00 +1.10 +2.37 S/R 71%
6 Hurricane Bay 1.53 WIN 1.00 +0.53 +1.27 S/R 67%
5 Kateira 1.91 WIN 1.00 +0.91 +0.74 S/R 60%
4 Bold Endeavour 1.67 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 -0.17 S/R 50%
3 Spring Promise 2.10 WIN 1.00 +1.10 +0.83 S/R 67%
2 Since Day One 1.67 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 -0.27 S/R 50%
1 Luccia 1.73 WIN 1.00 +0.73 +0.73 S/R 100%
FEBRUARY: 7 WIN: 5 LOSE: 2 S/R: 71% PROFIT: +2.37
(1212111) FINISHED First or Second (100%)
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