Play With The Finest Bookmaker, Fitzdares Restricted Novice Stakes (Class 5) 1m2f
Trainer Form: 9-45 for 20% (10)
National Average: 22% (10)
Course Strike Rate: 30% (10)
RPR: 85 (10)
Distance: 1m2f (10)
Optimum Ground: Good (10)
Jockey: Tom Marquand (10)
National Average: 15% (10)
Course Strike Rate: 24% (10)
Trainer/Jockey Combo: 18% (10)
Total: (100)
Filly showed fabulous attitude on debut
Royal Mila is a Nathaniel filly, a 62,000gns half-sister to the stable's Group 3 winner Bashkirova, a good middle-distance prospect and looks to be a highly-promising sort. We were taken how well she responded to pressure in a valuable 10-runner Class 2 Novice event at Goodwood over 1m2f on good to firm ground 23 days ago. She was always handy and came off the bridle earlier than many others in the race, but her response was fantastic and when the runner-up ranged alongside her she pulled out a lot more and was not going to be denied. The first two were well clear and now there is a promise of much more to come though no fancy entries at this stage!
Beaten rival had great profile
Seeking context going forward and in regard to the Class 5 Novice Race tomorrow (down from Class 2 Goodwood) it is important to acknowledge who the Pacafi beat on debut at Goodwood. Red Danielle was made a hot favourite for the race and a 45,000gns half-sister to three winners including Bella Vita (Listed-placed 1m2f-1m4f; RPR 101), and expected to make a winning debut according to the market and she was produced with her effort in plenty of time, but she just found the winner wasn't for passing. The distance she pulled clear of the others shows that she has plenty of ability and although her Ribblesdale entry may be a shade optimistic, she should be going one better sooner rather than later.
Trainer Form
William Haggas has recently slipped from 23% to 22% as a national average, and scoring from 25% over the past 2 years down to around 20% this current year. The trainer is 9-45 for 20% over the past 14 days and in part contradiction now 0-12 over the last 2 days. He shows 25-83 for a big 30% (-1.56) at the course so +8% above his reduced national average. The Haggas combination with jockey Tom Marquand shows 224-988 for 23% so 8% above the national average of the jockey. One senses the Haggas yard about to have a flurry of winners and get back to the 23% national average.
Timeform
ROYAL MILA created a fine impression when seeing off a well-touted rival and 8 others on debut at Goodwood 3 weeks ago. She looks more than capable of defying a penalty before tackling better company. Goldsborough also won at that venue on second start and can ensure the Haggas filly doesn't have it all her own way.
Value
We are not 100% sure what true perceived value is racing against the main danger Goldsborough, we had originally wanted something closer to 4/6 and will try and nick prices on the exchange through the night.
***
11 Royal Mila 1.57 WIN 1.00 +0.57 +4.13 S/R 73%
10 River Tara 1.53 WIN 1.00 +0.53 +3.46 S/R 70%
9 Unbreak My Heart 1.91 WIN 1.00 +0.91 +2.93 S/R 67%
8 Blinded'lights R4 2.50 WIN 1.00 +1.35 +2.02 S/R 63%
7 Aurora Vega 1.36 WIN 1.00 +0.36 +0.67 S/R 57%
6 Mojeyrr 1.91 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 +0.31 S/R 50%
5 Wind In Your Sail 2.25 WIN 1.00 +1.25 +1.31 S/R 60%
4 Basford 1.67 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 +0.16 S/R 50%
3 Je Ne Sais Quoi 2.37 WIN 1.00 +1.25 +1.16 S/R 67%
2 Military Order 6.00 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 -0.09 S/R 50%
1 Ghara 1.91 WIN 1.00 +0.91 +0.91 S/R 100%
June: 11 WIN: 8 LOSE: 3 S/R: 73% PROFIT: +4.13
(1L121L11111) FINISHED First or Second (81.82%)
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21 Ocean Runner 2.50 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 -4.31 S/R 48%
20 Tahiyra 1.50 WIN 1.00 +0.50 -3.31 S/R 50%
19 Ajp Kingdom 1.67 WIN 1.00 +0.67 -3.81 S/R 47%
18 Jaytee R4 2.20 WIN 1.00 +1.08 -4.48 S/R 44%
17 Horantzau D'Airy 1.53 WIN 1.00 +0.53 -5.56 S/R 41%
16 Dubai Dawn 3.50 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 -6.09 S/R 38%
15 Belsito 3.00 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 -5.09 S/R 40%
14 Almaty Star 1.73 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 -4.09 S/R 43%
13 Silver Lady (S) 3.00 LOSE 1.30 -1.30 -3.09 S/R 46%
12 Wedgewood 1.73 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 -1.79 S/R 50%
11 Shayekh 2.20 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 -0.79 S/R 56%
10 Aviewtosea 3.50 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 +0.21 S/R 60%
9 Choccabloc 1.80 WIN 1.00 +0.80 +1.21 S/R 67%
8 Ballyporeen 1.57 WIN 1.00 +0.57 +0.41 S/R 63%
7 Coppice 1.50 WIN 1.00 +0.50 -0.16 S/R 57%
6 Adayar R4 2.20 WIN 1.00 +1.08 -0.66 S/R 50%
5 Native Trail 2.25 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 -1.74 S/R 40%
4 Hey Lyla 1.53 WIN 1.00 +0.53 -0.74 S/R 50%
3 Trueshan 2.37 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 -1.27 S/R 33%
2 Spartan Arrow 1.73 WIN 1.00 +0.73 -0.27 S/R 50%
1 Luxembourg 1.67 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 -1.00 S/R 0%
May: 21 WIN: 10 LOSE: 11 S/R: 48% LOSS: -4.31
(51412111132333511119) FINISHED First or Second (61.90%)
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16 Epictetus 1.40 WIN 1.00 +0.40 +1.83 S/R 56%
15 Tenebrism 1.62 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 +1.43 S/R 53%
14 Chaldean 2.25 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 +2.43 S/R 57%
13 Gabriel's Getaway 1.83 WIN 1.00 +0.83 +3.43 S/R 62%
12 Lets Go Champ R4 1.73 WIN 1.00 +0.66 +2.60 S/R 58%
11 Dubai Dawn 1.33 WIN 1.00 +0.33 +1.94 S/R 55%
10 Shishkin 3.00 WIN 1.00 +2.00 +1.61 S/R 50%
9 Red Riding Hoood 1.44 WIN 1.00 +0.44 -0.39 S/R 44%
8 Slipofthepen 1.67 WIN 1.00 +0.67 -0.83 S/R 38%
7 Take No Chances 1.83 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 -1.50 S/R 29%
6 Allegorie De Vassy 1.44 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 -0.50 S/R 33%
5 Berkshire Shadow 2.50 WIN 1.00 +1.50 +0.50 S/R 40%
4 I Giorni (S) 3.00 LOSE 1.50 -1.50 -1.00 S/R 25%
3 Liberalist 3.50 WIN 1.00 +2.50 +0.50 S/R 33%
2 Sea Flawless 1.67 LOSE 1.00 +1.00 -2.00 S/R 0%
1 Chantico 2.37 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 -1.00 S/R 0%
APRIL: 16 WIN: 9 LOSE: 7 S/R: 56% PROFIT: +1.83
(4212123111111U21) FINISHED First or Second (81.25%)
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14 Chance The Robin 1.57 WIN 1.00 +0.57 +1.94 S/R 64%
13 Carrerea 1.91 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 +1.37 S/R 62%
12 Englebert 2.20 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 +2.37 S/R 67%
11 Ed Keeper 2.00 WIN 1.00 +1.00 +3.37 S/R 73%
10 The Same 2.00 WIN 1.00 +1.00 +2.37 S/R 70%
9 March Wind 2.50 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 +1.37 S/R 67%
8 Gail Du Mesnil 2.10 WIN 1.00 +1.10 +2.37 S/R 75%
7 Con'tution Hill 1.44 WIN 1.00 +0.44 +1.27 S/R 71%
6 Coniston George 1.91 WIN 1.00 +0.71 +0.83 S/R 67% R4
5 Go West 2.10 WIN 1.00 +1.10 +0.12 S/R 60%
4 Defence Treaty 2.00 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 -0.98 S/R 50%
3 Star Angel 1.62 WIN 1.00 +0.62 +0.02 S/R 67%
2 Glory Bridge 2.10 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 -0.60 S/R 50%
1 Willmount 1.40 WIN 1.00 +0.40 +0.40 S/R 100%
MARCH: 14 WIN: 9 LOSE: 5 S/R: 64% PROFIT: +1.94
(141L1111211831) FINISHED First or Second (71.43%)
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7 Eternal Hope 2.10 WIN 1.00 +1.10 +2.37 S/R 71%
6 Hurricane Bay 1.53 WIN 1.00 +0.53 +1.27 S/R 67%
5 Kateira 1.91 WIN 1.00 +0.91 +0.74 S/R 60%
4 Bold Endeavour 1.67 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 -0.17 S/R 50%
3 Spring Promise 2.10 WIN 1.00 +1.10 +0.83 S/R 67%
2 Since Day One 1.67 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 -0.27 S/R 50%
1 Luccia 1.73 WIN 1.00 +0.73 +0.73 S/R 100%
FEBRUARY: 7 WIN: 5 LOSE: 2 S/R: 71% PROFIT: +2.37
(1212111) FINISHED First or Second (100%)
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