TAX FOR MAX 3.22 Wexford at 5/6

     Forth Mountain Beginners Chase 2m

  COMPOSITE RATINGS

Trainer Form: 8-16 for 50%          (10)
National Average: 28%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 34%             (10)                       
RPR: NA                             (10)  
Distance: 2m                        (10)                       
Optimum Ground: Good                (10)
Jockey: Kieran Callaghan            (10) 
National Average: 10%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 13%             (10)                                                
Trainer/Jockey Combo: 30%           (10)       
Total:                             (100)

Furthermore, Willie Mullins has told us: "Tax For Max for Kieran Callaghan makes his chasing debut in the 2-mile beginners chase. He is a good jumper and will love this ground. On his best hurdling form he could be hard to beat!"

Looks a match

Tax For Max is a chasing newcomer with a great chance based on his overall Flat & Hurdles form last season including when splitting stablemates in a Punchestown Festival Event. The race is essentially a match between the Pacafi and Gordon Elliott's charge I A Connect. On such occasions we see what the mathematics say

Tax For Max was a higher-rated hurdler and runs for his in-form trainer and we might have an edge regarding jockeyship which will be critical.

Jockey edge?

For example, Kieran Callaghan has a national average of 10%, rode 22 winners, shows 3-13 for 23% in the last 14 days and 13-44 for 30% (+11.38) when riding for Willie Mullins. Corey McGivern has a national average of 8%, rode 10 winners, shows 0-16 in the last 14 days and 10-76 for 13% when riding for Gordon Elliott. Has this any relevance in a Beginners Chase Match Race with two 7lb claimers riding? Yes, it does! The numbers are factual and not opinion!

WILLIE MULLINS
June:    15-26    58%     +5.81
May:     23-48    48%    +18.03
Total:   38-74    51%    +23.84

Wexford: 17-50    34%     -1.69  

GORDON ELLIOTT
June:    10-65    15%    -30.08
May:     21-105   20%     +7.01
Total:   31-170   18%    -23.07

Wexford: 17-108   16%    -25.62

The table above reveals more advantage...

Disappointed yesterday now back to 2m

Gordon Elliott has previously said his charge is much better over 2m4f and this Chase is 2m. He ran yesterday at Kilbeggan in another Beginners Chase 2m3½f, drifted from 6/4 to 5/2, did not jump with fluency, pushed along after 3 out, ridden after 2 out and weakened on the run-in finishing 6th of 7. 

Timeform

 TAX FOR MAX brings some useful hurdling form to the table so Willie Mullins' 6-y-o is fancied to go in at the first time of asking over fences. Fellow chasing debutants Walnut Beach and I A Connect also offer potential in this sphere and can chase home the selection in that order.

Value

The 5/6 looks perceived value and whilst we cannot know that for sure on this occasion (Beginners Chase to be ridden by a claimer) happy to take the price based on our rationale above and the confidence of the trainer. Had the trainer not given a positive indication we would not have backed or nominated this Pacafi1

Bet365 are still offering 11/4 about the Gordon Elliott runner and that looks big in the context of this race, this is probably in relation to the quick turnaround. As a consequence they are not taking any money on the Mullins horse offering just 8/13, was 4/7.

I A Connect traded at a low of 2.56 and Betfair SP of 7.33 when losing last time, a race in which it raced prominently: Tax For Max traded at a low of 9.80 and Betfair SP of 13.32 when losing last time, a race in which it raced in mid-field.

12 Tax For Max R4     1.83  WIN   1.00  +0.62  +4.75  S/R  75% 
11 Royal Mila         1.57  WIN   1.00  +0.57  +4.13  S/R  73%
10 River Tara         1.53  WIN   1.00  +0.53  +3.46  S/R  70%       
 9 Unbreak My Heart   1.91  WIN   1.00  +0.91  +2.93  S/R  67% 
 8 Blinded'lights R4  2.50  WIN   1.00  +1.35  +2.02  S/R  63%
 7 Aurora Vega        1.36  WIN   1.00  +0.36  +0.67  S/R  57%
 6 Mojeyrr            1.91  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +0.31  S/R  50%
 5 Wind In Your Sail  2.25  WIN   1.00  +1.25  +1.31  S/R  60%
 4 Basford            1.67  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +0.16  S/R  50%
 3 Je Ne Sais Quoi    2.37  WIN   1.00  +1.25  +1.16  S/R  67%
 2 Military Order     6.00  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -0.09  S/R  50%
 1 Ghara              1.91  WIN   1.00  +0.91  +0.91  S/R 100%