THEATRE HONOURS 6.20 Newcastle at 10/11

     Royal Ascot On Sky Sports Racing Novice Stakes (Class 5) 1m2f42y

  COMPOSITE RATINGS

Trainer Form: 6-20 for 30%          (10)
National Average: 29%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 31%             (10)                       
RPR: 86                             (10)  
Distance: 1m+                        (9)                       
Optimum Ground: Good                (10)
Jockey: Billy Loughnane             (10) 
National Average: 16%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 32%             (10)                                                
Trainer/Jockey Combo: 100%          (10)       
Total:                              (99)

Godolphin Comments

Theatre Honours is a gelded half-brother to UAE 6f-1m dirt winner Discovery Island (including Group 3; RPR 113); promising second in 1m Newmarket novice in May 2023; second again to useful rival in 1m Leicester maiden in June.

Sets a high standard

Theatre Honours is a Kingman already gelded half-brother to UAE 6f-1m dirt winner Discovery Island (including Group 3; RPR 113). He has now shown plenty of promise when runner-up in both outings, most recently in 10-runner maiden at Leicester over 8¼m on good ground 15 days ago. He looked a shade awkward on that occasion but sets a high standard nonetheless and has benefit of top claimer aboard in Billy Loughnane. Though one slight negative this looks his easiest assignment to date.

Made the 11/8 favourite next time up in strong Maiden

He made his debut at Newmarket over a mile on good ground as the second favourite (4/1) against a previous winner in a Class 4 Novice and made a pleasing start, albeit he was unable to get to grips with that penalised winner inside the final furlong. At that stage he promise any improvement on his next start would make him hard to beat in an ordinary novice. Next up at Leicester he was made the 11/8 favourite in a strong Class 4 Maiden and although well placed throughout had no obvious excuses.

His running suggests he wants further

His running style suggests he wants further, but his breeding contradicts the fact. The John Gosden horse who beat him at Leicester is also sired by Kingman and his next entry is Heritage Handicap at Newmarket also over 1m2f in July. Whether 1m2f will be his optimum distance going forward we cannot be sure at this stage. The fact Charlie Appleby has found this race for him on the AW surface suggests this distance at this course will suit and the 3lb claim by jockey Billy Loughnane will help a bit also.

Breeding disagrees but very fast ground not optimum?

There was no doubt he was not stopping over the last 100 yards of his race and the fact he was cocking his head slightly left in running gave us the opinion he was not enjoying the very fast ground at Leicester (good to firm) and the Newcastle AW could be right up his alley! We readily accept his half-brother and mother did enjoy fast ground so the head carriage issue could be something else, and going left-handed today (instead of right-handed at Leicester) might help in that regard.

Trainer and Jockey Form

Charlie Appleby (29%) came out of a quieter period and is heavily back amongst the winners with 6-20 for 30% in the last 14 days. At Newcastle AW he scores 12-39 for 31% (-5.23) and is 1-1 for 100% when combining with jockey Billy Loughnane (16%). The jockey shows 7-22 for 32% (-0.85) at the course. We look forward to watching Billy Loughnane sitting quietly just off the pace then producing the Pacafi to win. 

Contender

The main danger looks to be the William Haggas trained Medieval Gold. He is a Camelot half-brother to useful 1m AW 2yo/1m2f winner Morning Poem (RPR 97). He didn't live up to market expectations at Chester (1m4f, soft; 100-30) last month but he ran green after a slow start and did make some encouraging late headway. He now drops in trip but he should know much more this time and a certain improver on his second start. He did hold a Derby entry at one stage.

Timeform

 Godolphin's THEATRE HONOURS has shown a level of form which typically would be good enough to win a race of this nature and despite looking a shade awkward under pressure last time, he's taken to go one better and get off the mark. Quantum Leap impressed on the clock when making a winning debut last year and is highly respected after an absence, whilst Medieval Gold is surely better than he was able to show at Chester.

Value

The 10/11 looks perceived value.

Theatre Honours traded at a low of 2.10 and Betfair SP of 2.76 when losing last time, a race in which it raced prominently.

13 Theatre Honours    1.91  WIN   1.00  +0.91  +5.66  S/R  77%
12 Tax For Max R4     1.83  WIN   1.00  +0.62  +4.75  S/R  75% 
11 Royal Mila         1.57  WIN   1.00  +0.57  +4.13  S/R  73%
10 River Tara         1.53  WIN   1.00  +0.53  +3.46  S/R  70%       
 9 Unbreak My Heart   1.91  WIN   1.00  +0.91  +2.93  S/R  67% 
 8 Blinded'lights R4  2.50  WIN   1.00  +1.35  +2.02  S/R  63%
 7 Aurora Vega        1.36  WIN   1.00  +0.36  +0.67  S/R  57%
 6 Mojeyrr            1.91  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +0.31  S/R  50%
 5 Wind In Your Sail  2.25  WIN   1.00  +1.25  +1.31  S/R  60%
 4 Basford            1.67  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +0.16  S/R  50%
 3 Je Ne Sais Quoi    2.37  WIN   1.00  +1.25  +1.16  S/R  67%
 2 Military Order     6.00  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -0.09  S/R  50%
 1 Ghara              1.91  WIN   1.00  +0.91  +0.91  S/R 100%