Finding a way to profit with sports betting demands a certain mindset and one beyond reach to the vast majority of bettors. Even then, in a discipline which is totally subjective, once you think you have the game beat you get a kicking in the proverbial. So what have we learnt in 56 years of betting? Actually we have learnt a number of things.

Without doubt, the most difficult prerequisite is to attain a high level of emotional resolve. Those skilled in emotional resolve understand human frailty and patterns that lead to emotional distress, so able to focus and see the bigger picture or long game. Carl Jung reminds us: "Emotion is not an activity of the individual but something that happens to him." The best sports bettors are able to put their emotions aside when making their betting decisions. If you want to be successful, you need to learn to do the same or something similar.

On a personal note we have never fully beaten the emotional side of betting, critically we understand its form and nature and have managed to shackle it. We use the word shackle because it is never goes away, it is always lurking, hovering, skulking. Because we are so aware and understanding of this aspect, when we exhibit any form of emotional annoyance, like we did over a48-hour period last month, the net result was compounded. Without doubt this is the biggest obstacle to success!

Those who are serious about betting must have a set-aside bank and a staking plan that suit the personality of the user. No two people on planet earth bet exactly the same. Every successful bettor has a set-aside bank and understands its preservation is paramount. Conversely (in a worst case scenario), they are comfortable about losing that bank in a way it does not negatively impact on their life outside of sports betting!

 This investment bank will accurately measure success or failure and reduce emotional attachment from your betting decisions. Unfortunately/foolishly, most place random bets using money from their overall finances, this invites high risk factors, meaning they will never be able to determine how successful their betting strategy actually is.

Every bettor will have a different mental approach to the game, but keeping records is a non-negotiable prerequisite to those that are serious about making betting pay. It assists the betting process offering stark reminders of where profits and losses lie, and retrospectively logs and describes an historic road map of where you have been. Those who do not keep records are destined to fail and cannot be considered professionals.

A staking plan is the method of defining how much of your bank you should be investing on a particular wager. Having an edge/value in any wager is essential, and how and when you stake is critical. Most professionals vary their stake based on how confident they are on their selection, or on how 'wrong' the price is. The bigger the difference between the price secured and the one offered by the bookmaker determines the size of the edge. Contrariwise, haphazard and random staking with no edge is just about the quickest way to the poor house!

A staking plan is a calculation of your stake with the aim of maximising profit or minimising risk, however a plan cannot do both. For example, a staking plan which maximises profit will by its very nature increase the risk of losing more money and visa-versa.

It is the bettor's responsibility to learn to identify, assess and mitigate the perils associated with their betting strategy through effective risk management. A common misconception is that some staking strategies, in particular the progressive plans, can turn a loss-making entity into profitable ones. This is impossible and represents a misunderstanding of the mathematical principles that underlie such strategies.

Generally speaking, percentage staking does not take into account how confident the bettor is about the bet, so in a perfect world an adjustment to take into account the confidence could/should be made.

One way is to have three levels of confidence and add those percentage points to the bet. TRH has a member/friend of the site who bets professionally (uses the Pacafi as part of a portfolio) and prefers a graded three-pronged approach. If, after absorbing our advice and passing his own filters, he invokes his triage approach. His base bet is 3%, his standard is 4% and his maximum/best bet is 5% and this approach serves him well and something we are now considering. His results do show the highest strike rates combine with the highest stakes and the reason for keeping articulate records.

The percentage of the bank staking still comes in for criticism, but worth remembering there is no danger of losing the bank, and our mantra/comfort zone is one of NO RISK and something we are naturally comfortable with.

Regarding our own operation, we usually advise Pacafi selections to 1pt level stake on perceived value nominations. Level stake betting neither maximises nor minimises risk. Many believe that there is little logic behind a level stake approach, but it does form the benchmark against which all others should be measured in regard to profitability and risk evaluation. On a personal note our finalised bets are rarely 1pt win and we talk a little about this HERE

If a strategy can make a profit to level stakes, as in our bandwidth, then it is the real deal. Equally, if the strategy inherently carries an average 57% strike-rate, it eradicates those long debilitating losing runs that decimates the mentality of the individual and betting bank. Naturally, one must always be sceptical of level staking results on a small sample, but our sample size is huge (over many hundreds of bets). The consequence of our approach means it is impossible for us to lose our betting bank - it just cannot happen!

Some have been quick to remind us that our mode of betting is too safe and boring, and this is something we fully understand and readily accept! But we have always preferred natural and incremental growth under the protection of a NO RISK umbrella. Once our bank passes certain thresholds we are able to increase stakes, and betting as a percentage of capital suits us best.

Whilst our strategy makes a profit on the back of a high strike-rate we know it does not suit the vast majority of bettors. Betting £10 on a 4/5 shot is not deemed sexy to most, but when we return a 4/5 winner within our long game we are absolutely delighted! The strategy suits and serves our betting mentality.

We bet for a regular wage that compliments a small pension and we utilise our edge gained by experience. Without an edge no betting system or strategy will be successful. We also know that no staking plan can turn bad value selections into winning ways. We also know that aggressive staking will ultimately fail and in any case it would introduce stress, nerves and anxiety into one's life and who needs that?

Irrespective of staking plans, good or bad, the biggest concern to most is chasing losses through random wagering. We NEVER place a random bet! This does not mean we cannot venture outside of our strategy or system if we believe we have an edge or perceived value, but we log in from another set aside bank with the relevant title! Only yesterday we found tremendous value in a forecast bet and duly collected, the bet has been logged under FORCAST BETTING and one showing a healthy profit over the past 46 months. Once again, within the rationale of our Pacafi Strategy these bets present themselves.

The Racing Horse's principal remit is to show a member that they can back horses that win close to a 60% strike-rate and make a profit. We achieve that whilst supplying a rationale of why our selection will win and nominating the dangers. It is not possible to lose money over a quarter following our advice. The Pacafi is a portfolio, most of the nominations shorten in price making it ideal for trading, most finish first or second, making it an excellent forecast tool, and great for laying second-favourites that our bet beats. The rationale specifically says why our nomination will win and at the very least offers a good starting point/argument regarding the race involved.

The rationale and mathematics contained within the Pacafi can only help the reader and well worth the tiny subscription of 33p per day. If the reader generally accepts most of our principles above a FREE TRIAL is available in June 2023.

By the way, The Racing Horse has no bookmaker affiliate link facility, we do not want to be rewarded if members lose money from their betting. We decline all such offers. In fact there is no advertising at all on our site, we are just not interested in that sort of thing. All we want is that next winner!

***