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KEMPTON RACECOURSE TEMPLATE (Wednesday 28 June 2023)
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The Racing Horse offers our Kempton AW for Wednesday 28 June 2023. There is an 8-race card containing 6 Handicaps and 2 Maiden Races. The Polytrack surface is expected to ride standard to slow. |
Winning Favourites (5 Years)
Non-handicap Handicap
2yo 108-272 40% -46.55 37-114 32% -7.32
3yo 130-273 48% -18.92 139-475 29% -87.01
4yo+ 45-114 39% -16.25 247-765 32% -45.49
TOTAL 283-659 43% -81.73 423-1354 31% -139.82
TOP 6 TRAINERS at KEMPTON past 5 years +/- E
J & T Gosden (21%) 74-317 23% -60.62 +2% 2
A Balding (15%) 71-422 17% +65.69 +2% 2
R Varian (20%) 63-266 24% -14.79 +4% 1
C Appleby (29%) 55-171 32% -25.89 +4% 0
R Hannon (11%) 54-479 11% -107.94 +0% 4
A Watson (16%) 46-262 18% -61.08 +2% 2
HOT TRAINERS 29/05/2023 to 27/06/2023 +/- E
E Dunlop (10%) 16-69 23% +28.73 +13% 2
J Fanshawe (15%) 8-36 22% +6.91 +7% 1
COLD TRAINERS SAW E
M Stoute (19%) 21 20 days 1
TOP 5 JOCKEYS at KEMPTON past 5 years +/- R
D Probert (11%) 90-803 11% -126.01 +0% 5
O Murphy (19%) 86-418 21% -53.29 +2% 0
H Doyle (15%) 86-570 15% -79.51 +0% 0
J Doyle (19%) 63-287 22% -6.20 +3% 0
T Marquand (14%) 63-538 12% - 118.03 -2% 6
HOT JOCKEYS 29/05/2023 to 27/06/2023 +/- R
T H-Hansen (10%) 9-28 32% -3.43 +22% 2
T Fisher (13%) 10-41 24% +13.52 +11% 3
H Crouch (14%) 13-56 23% +18.01 +9% 4
R Coakley (13%) 11-51 22% +1.33 +9% 1
D O'Neill (15%) 9-46 20% +25.06 +5% 2
COLD JOCKEYS SAW R
D Muscutt (13%) 27 13 days 7
J Fisher (6%) 26 130 days 2
L Catton (10% 24 40 days 1
TOP 5 OWNERS at Kempton past 5 years +/- E
Godolphin (24%) 91-329 28% -55.24 +4% 1
Hamdan Maktoum (22%) 31-116 27% +67.81 +5% 0
King Power (14%) 25-136 18% -29.60 +5% 1
Shadwell Est (24%) 15-51 29% +11.49 +5% 0
Ahmed Maktoum (25%) 15-61 25% -0.27 +0% 1
FIXTURES:
Wednesday 28 June 2023
Thursday 6 July 2023
Wednesday 12 July 2023
SAW: Since a winner E: Entries R: Rides
Upcoming Racecourse Templates
Newmarket July Course (Thursday)
Newmarket July Course (Friday)
Newmarket July Course (Saturday)
RACECOURSE TEMPLATES explained
What is a NATIONAL AVERAGE?
FAVOURITES: Our Kempton Racecourse Template contains a huge sample size (over 2,000 races) and these figures should be absorbed if not acted upon. Winning favourites at the course over the past 5 years show 706-2013 for a strike rate of 35.07% so about 3% above the national average. A £1 stake on each favourite shows a loss of -221.55 to SP. There is a 12% differential between winning non-handicap favourites and winning handicap favourites (43% v 31%). Best strike rates are 3yo favourites in non-handicaps scoring at 48%, whilst the worst is 3yo winning favourites in handicaps scoring at 29%. The suggestion is to look closely at those 3yo favourites in non-handicaps, just a modicum of filtration would have produced a profit to level stakes.
TRAINERS: Five of our top 6 trainers at the course have runners and the suggestion is a winner or two will come from their 11 runners.
One trainer not in attendance is Charlie Appleby (29%). We are always on red alert when he has runners at Kempton. He will have a number of runners for the 3-day meeting at Newmarket and there is an urgent need to examine each of those runners given his expertise at the July Course. He will feature on our Red Flag Comment for all three days. We have taken the 6/4 (SkyBet) about STAR OF MYSTERY 12.40 Newmarket on Saturday but could only get on at small stakes because of restrictions but the price must be considered perceived value!
JOCKEYS: There are two jockeys who offer us the best angle into the meeting and we are playing using some creative staking from a set aside bank. There are 13 rides to consider.
Tom Marquand (14%) has 6 rides, they include INTRICATE PILLAR 5.50, PALAZZO PERSICO 6.20, HURRICAN POWER 6.50, SHIGAR 7.20, BAUHINIA RHAPSODY 7.50 & WILD HURRICANE 8.20.
Danny Muscutt (13%) must be filtered and followed from today. His 7 rides include POWERBYLOVE 5.50. BIGGER THAN GIGA 6.20, DARING LEGEND 6.50, COVERT LEGEND 7.20, GARRICK PAINTER 7.50, CHIPS AND RICE 8.20 & LA BELLE VIE 8.50
David Probert (11%) has 5 rides and will be typically competitive.
OWNERS: Godolphin (24%) have just the one runner tomorrow in WILD HURRICANE 8.20 trained by Saeed bin Suroor and interestingly ridden by Tom Marquand who combines to score 5-20 for 25% (+5.25) with the trainer.
King Power (14%) are currently 0-21 over the past 14 days. They have one runner in WINDSEEKER 7.20 trained by Richard Hannon and to be ridden by Alec Voikhansky.
Sheikh Ahmed Al Maktoum (25%) has a big national average and has an interesting runner trained by Roger Varian in MAGSOOD 6.50. Interesting to note his last 3 runners have all won and now 4-5 winning at prices of 5/1, 7/2, 7/1 & 1/4.
RED FLAG: Sheikh Ahmed Al Maktoum has some great numbers and we have been taking advantage of them. The last 5-years show 186-738 for 25% (+43.63) and £3½m in prize money suggesting his horses are well placed with his different trainers. Included in the figures are 211 second places so 397-738 finish first or second for 53.79%. Is this a system I hear you ask? The runners are regular and we have a big sample to consider. One imagines a modicum of filtration could easily build on the 54%.
2yo AW: 13-56 23% -0.87 2yo Turf: 17-74 23% +2.02 3yo AW: 48-149 32% +7.96 3yo Turf: 80-309 26% +52.59 4yo AW: 9-36 25% -13.55 4yo Turf: 19-114 17% -4.52 Total: 186-738 25% +43.63
The figures above show him scoring 128-458 for a big 28% (+60.55) with 3yos on the AW & Turf and a good angle in. His placed horses for this category show 252-458 for 55.02%.
PERTINENCE5.15
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| The way the track is prepared at Kempton can play a massive part in whether it suits front-runners or horses coming from behind. Most of the time, the going is officially rated ‘standard’ but I know, from having ridden in America, that all artificial surfaces are dependent on weather conditions. An inside draw is a big advantage on the round course, as you don’t want to be running wide, and there’s a tendency for jockeys to get going a long from home. My preference would be to use patient tactics - Jason Weaver |