The Racing Horse offers our Newmarket Racecourse Template for Hamilton for Tuesday 4 July 2023. There is a 6-race card containing 5 Handicaps and a Maiden Race. The going is expected to be good to soft.
This is our very first Template for Hamilton. We noted the high strike rate for winning favourites and felt the need to investigate further and especially the winning 2yo & 3yo favourites in non-handicaps.
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HAMILTON FAVOURITES (5 years)
Non-handicap Handicap
2yo 33-66 50% +0.12 8-15 53% +4.00
3yo 23-37 62% +7.96 40-109 37% -10.38
4yo+ 4-10 40% -1.29 93-259 36% +10.05
TOTAL 60-113 53% +6.79 141-383 37% +3.66
TOP 5 TRAINERS HAMILTON 5 years +/- E
K Dalgleish (11%) 41-306 13% +7.44 +2% 0
J Goldie (10%) 32-290 11% -110.55 +1% 3
R Fahey (11%) 30-183 16% -58.09 +5% 0
K Ryan (12%) 28-122 23% +14.00 +11% 1
T Easterby (9%) 21-191 11% -62.93 +2% 2
J Camacho (12%) 9-29 31% +10.03 +19% 1
TOP JOCKEYS HAMILTON 5 years +/- R
B Curtis (16%) 33-125 26% +23.74 +10% 5
P Mulrennan (12%) 28-178 16% +26.40 +4% 5
C Rodriguez (13%) 22-136 16% -32.54 +3% 1
D Tudhope (17%) 21-120 18% -35.03 +1% 0
K Stott (15%) 19-102 19% -38.16 +4% 0
TOP 5 OWNERS HAMILTON 5 years +/- E
Straightline (13%) 8-22 36% +99.33 +23% 0
Clipper Log (16%) 8-25 32% +2.44 +16% 0
James M Long (11%) 8-49 16% -0.87 +5% 2
S M O A Maktoum (19%) 6-18 33% +3.14 +14% 0
D W Armstrong (15%) 6-19 32% +7.40 +17% 0
Fixtures:
Tuesday 4 July 2023
Saturday 15 July 2023
Thursday 20 July 2023
Friday 21 July 2023
Upcoming Racecourse Templates
Kempton (Thursday)
COURSE: Right handed, sharp, undulating. There are steep gradients into and out of a pronounced hollow just over three furlongs from the winning post, with a severe hill up to the finish. When the ground becomes testing, runners generally stick to the far rail.
FAVOURITES: Over the past 5-years winning favourites at this course show 201-496 for 40.52% and a level stake profit of +10.45. The strike rate is around 8% above the national average. Winning favourites in non-handicaps score at a big 53% whilst handicap favourites score 37%. Both categories show a level stake profit.
TRAINERS: There are a number of trainers making a journey in excess of 200 miles and something always worthy of attention. But our eyes are drawn to the actions of two trainers. Keith Dalgleish (11%) trains just 10 miles down the road and one would expect him to find a runner on his home course, he has no runners here tomorrow. However, Archie Watson sends a 2yo filly IMPERIALITY a distance of 375 miles from Lambourn to break her maiden. The trainer is 24% with his 2yos this year and scores 5-24 for 21% at the course. We will look at this race in some depth on our Red Flag segment.
JOCKEYS: Ben Curtis (16%) and Paul Mulrennan (12%) are the top two jockeys at the course and both have 5 rides and winners are promised.
OWNERS: James Mearns Long (11%) scores 16% at the track and has 2 runners, they are TWO AULD PALS 3.47 & MRS HAPPY 4.52.
RED FLAG: The opening race on the card is a 6f Maiden Stakes Race (Class 5) for 2yos. There are just 6 runners entered and we look each of their trainers in regards to winning 2yos for the current year. Immediately we notice Archie Watson has been scoring at 24% with his 2yos this year, and now makes a long journey from Lambourn to race his Exceed And Excel filly for his very wealthy owner Zhang Yuesheng. Given the owner's breeding ambitions/set-up he will want a winner from this filly quickly.
Archie Watson: 12-49 24% +11.05
Karl Burke: 17-76 22% +1.32
Charlie Johnston: 11-77 14% -0.27
Ollie Pears: 3-25 12% +7.00
Michael Dods: 1-11 9% -6.40
Adrian Paul Keatley: 0-5 0% -5.00
The question to ask is whether this table has value or/and does it help the filtration process. Our answer is yes and yes! IMPERIALITY must now be primed and hard to beat. She showed speed at Chepstow over the stiff 5f last time out, but visually suggested she wanted 6f or further, whilst her breeding demanded it. There is a stiff uphill finish at Hamilton and this track looks perfect for her at this stage and the probable reason for her visit. Jockey Paul Mulrennan is more than a safe pair of hands and rides the course well, we cannot know for certain but imagine the jockey had a choice of rides including the main danger Midnight Lir. The danger has to give 5lbs sex allowance and that might be a tough ask. Obviously, after a long trip we like to see a good paddock and trip to post, but the suggestion is the connections are here to win, so what is value?
UPDATE 15.34: We have just received an opening show: 15/8 Midnight Lir 5/2 Unowho 3/1 Soveraine 5/1 Impartiality 14/1 Petra Celera 25/1 Irresistible Force and suffice it to say we think they have it completely wrong! We had the Archie Watson trained runner at least second favourite at around 3/1 whilst accepting Midnight Lir deserved to be favourite on form.
We have backed Impartiality at 5/1 to win with Bet365, and placed a stake saver on Midnight Lir at 15/8.
PERTINENCE tbc
2.15 (Favs: 50%)
IMPERIALITY (A Watson) Certain improver stepped up in trip, long traveller 370-miles, trainer 12 2yo winners this year, Paul Mulrennan rides
MIDNIGHT LIR (M Dods) 2nd of 14 in Thirsk 6f Maiden headed final 100 yds on third run, trainer just one 2yo winner this year, Connor Beasley rides
2.47
HALE END (M Dods) ready C&D winner and career best 13 days ago wearing cheek pieces, 10lb rise rise might not stop him, Connor Beasley rides
MAGICDOLLAR (K Ryan) Solid start to year on AW when landing pair of 1m handicaps January/February, given a break, low-mileage on turf. Tom Eaves rides
CALYPSO (J Ferguson) long traveller 361-miles, promising individual. Tongue strap 1st time creditable third of 10 in Haydock Handicap 20 days ago, nearest finish. Step up in trip to suit, place chance at least, Danny Muscutt rides
3.17
AUSTRIAN THEORY (C Johnston) beaten favourite last time out, won this race last year when 1lb higher, back to winning ways landing 12-runner Epsom Handicap (8.5f) on penultimate start in June, Joe Fanning rides
FANTASTIC FOX (R Varian) beaten favourite last time out, C&D winner. Respectable 2l 5th of 12 to Austrian Theory in Epsom Handicap 32 days ago. First time cheekpieces, David Egan rides
3.47
BERAZ (J Camacho) impression more to come when runner-up here on debut in May. Graham Lee rides
HOPE YOU CAN RUN (C Johnston) drops from Class 2 to Class 4, Ben Curtis rides
4.17
PROSPECT (P Midgley) beaten favourite last time out, Graham Lee rides
PARISIAC (A Haynes) weighted to win 85 > 76, Kieran O'Neill rides
IRISH DANCER (T Davidson) Three time C&D winner, Rowan Scott rides and won the last 2 runnings.
4.52
HARD SOLUTION (R Carr) winner in the last 7 days, James Sullivan rides
RED ALLURE (A Nicholls) formerly with L Williamson, weighted to win 55 > 51, Barry McHugh rides
JAMES WATT (P Midgley) weighted to win 76 > 54, Graham Lee rides
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| It’s vital in distance races at Hamilton that you get your mount to settle early on, otherwise you’ll be going far too quick down the hill, long before you get to the top loop. Balance is all-important for any horse running there, which means you get a few track specialists. The steep run down to the bottom of the dip can cause jockeys to start racing too early and, because it’s a long way home from there, they can be walking from the two to the one pole. There’s very little draw bias in sprint races - Jason Weaver |
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