JPR Phoenix / EBF Maiden Stakes (Class 5) 6f
Trainer Form: 2-6 for 33% (10)
National Average: 20% (10)
Course Strike Rate: NA (10)
RPR: 90 (10)
Distance: 6f (10)
Optimum Ground: Good (10)
Jockey: Kevin Stott (10)
National Average: 15% (10)
Course Strike Rate: NA (10)
Trainer/Jockey Combo: NA (10)
Total: (70)
Very hard to beat this time around
Labalaba is a £210,000 2yo and showed immense promise despite a ton of greenness on debut in a Novice at Salisbury over 6f on good to firm ground. He was well supported and stuck on for second despite hanging left from over 1f out. Unfurnished, he led for most of the race unbalanced and looked like he had a leg in every county, changing his legs at will and not handling the Salisbury course and maybe not the very firm ground given one of his knee actions. With the experience under his belt he should keep straighter and has already proved to have a big engine. He will be very hard to beat here!
The going at Ffos Las is currently good, good to firm in places,\ but we have rain in South Wales and we could lose the word firm from the title going and this should assist the Pacafi.
Composite
Our composite board has not been fully satisfied. but this is not expected to affect the result. We believe this is the first visit to the course for jockey Kevin Stott and he has only had one ride at sister racecourse Chepstow, but he rides on a straight 6f course and has a fair bit in hand with his ride! Regarding the jockey and trainer combination their score is 0-3. The trainers are only having their fourth runner at the Welsh course for 0 wins and 2 second places.
Trainer Form
E & S Crisford have been running a lot of horses at big prices over the past 14 days and this gives a false picture as to the form of the stable. Two of their last six runners have won, both at 4/1. June showed 10-61 for 16% measured against their national average of 20%, but there have been 9 second places and 9 third places within those figures. They have ran 11 2yos this current year for just one winner with 2 second places and 1 third place.
Course
Although Kevin Stott has not ridden at Ffos Las before just a percentage ride is required given he has just 6 rivals. This course is a left-handed track, essentially galloping in nature. Approximately a mile and a half in extent, the course is very flat and fair, with a long home straight, including an extension to enable a straight track for races over five and six furlongs. His partner Megan Nicholls knows the course particularly well and would have briefed the jockey, we can be sure of that.
Timeform View
This is all about LABALABA, who shaped with plenty of promise when second to a bright prospect on his recent introduction at Salisbury. He should have little trouble going one better here before going on to better things. John Steed has failed to build on his encouraging debut in two subsequent appearances but he nevertheless looks the one most likely to follow the selection home. Miggy Magic is most interesting of the remainder.
Value
The 2/5 must be north of perceived value for this race and we are not looking forward to a cosy ½l win!
Labalaba traded at a low of 2.00 and Betfair SP of 3.24 when losing last time, a race in which it led.
3 Labalaba 1.40 WIN 1.00 +0.40 +0.77 S/R 67%
2 New London 2.10 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 +0.37 S/R 50%
1 Star Of Mystery 2.37 WIN 1.00 +1.37 +1.37 S/R 100%
July: 3 WIN: 2 LOSE: 1 S/R: 67% PROFIT: +0.77
(131) FINISHED First or Second (66.67%)
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16 Shadan Joy 1.56 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 +5.68 S/R 75%
15 Imperial Emperor 1.40 WIN 1.00 +0.40 +6.68 S/R 80%
14 Tahiyra 1.62 WIN 1.00 +0.62 +6.28 S/R 79%
13 Theatre Honours 1.91 WIN 1.00 +0.91 +5.66 S/R 77%
12 Tax For Max R4 1.83 WIN 1.00 +0.62 +4.75 S/R 75%
11 Royal Mila 1.57 WIN 1.00 +0.57 +4.13 S/R 73%
10 River Tara 1.53 WIN 1.00 +0.53 +3.46 S/R 70%
9 Unbreak My Heart 1.91 WIN 1.00 +0.91 +2.93 S/R 67%
8 Blinded'lights R4 2.50 WIN 1.00 +1.35 +2.02 S/R 63%
7 Aurora Vega 1.36 WIN 1.00 +0.36 +0.67 S/R 57%
6 Mojeyrr 1.91 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 +0.31 S/R 50%
5 Wind In Your Sail 2.25 WIN 1.00 +1.25 +1.31 S/R 60%
4 Basford 1.67 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 +0.16 S/R 50%
3 Je Ne Sais Quoi 2.37 WIN 1.00 +1.25 +1.16 S/R 67%
2 Military Order 6.00 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 -0.09 S/R 50%
1 Ghara 1.91 WIN 1.00 +0.91 +0.91 S/R 100%
June: 16 WIN: 12 LOSE: 4 S/R: 75% PROFIT: +5.68
(1L121L1111111112) FINISHED First or Second (87.50%)
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