PACAFI (Wednesday 19 July 2023)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

BATTISTA 7.30 Wolverhampton at 4/7

     Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Restricted Novice Stakes (Class 5) 1m142y

Pedigree

32,000gns Y; second foal; half-brother to 11.6f winner Valsad (RPR 93); dam 1m4f turf/12.4f AW winner (88), half-sister to 1m2f Listed winners El Drama and Volume out of 1m winning half-sister to 1m7f Group 2 winner Vertical Speed

  COMPOSITE RATINGS

Trainer Form: 625 for 24%           (10)
National Average: 22%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 18%             (10)                       
RPR: 89                             (10)  
Distance: 1m                        (10)                       
Optimum Ground: Good/Standard       (10)
Jockey: Rob Havlin                  (10) 
National Average: 15%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 17%             (10)                                                
Trainer/Jockey Combo: 22%           (10)       
Total:                             (100)

Newmarket Class 4 to Wolverhampton Class 5

Battista looks a promising type. The 3yo New Bay colt was third of 6 at Newmarket in a Class 4 Novice over a mile 25 days when running on. The fourth has won since. He remains open to plenty of improvement and now racing in a Class 4 at Wolverhampton Novice. Hooded on both starts so not straightforward, but slightly stiffer test should suit on breeding and he looks hard to beat, especially given his sire's 26% strike-rate here in the past five seasons.

Timeform View 

It's hard to look beyond BATTISTA, who has shown plenty of promise in much stronger novice events than this at Kempton and Newmarket. City of York is preferred to Emperor's Clothes for forecast purposes.

Value 

The 4/7 looks to be perceived value, looks more a 4/9 shot!

Battista traded at a low of 12.00 and Betfair SP of 8.35 when losing last time, a race in which it raced in mid-field.

11 Battista          1.57  WIN   1.00  +0.57  +2.32  S/R  73%
10 Watch M Tracer R4 1.53  WIN   1.00  +0.45  +1.75  S/R  70%
 9 Adayar            1.53  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +1.30  S/R  67%
 8 Lion's Pride      1.73  WIN   1.00  +0.73  +2.30  S/R  75% 
 7 Prisha            1.50  WIN   1.00  +0.50  +1.57  S/R  71% 
 6 Purpleplay        2.37  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +1.07  S/R  67%
 5 Yibir             1.50  WIN   1.00  +0.50  +2.07  S/R  80%
 4 Bobby Socks       1.80  WIN   1.00  +0.80  +1.57  S/R  75%
 3 Labalaba          1.40  WIN   1.00  +0.40  +0.77  S/R  67%
 2 New London        2.10  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +0.37  S/R  50%
 1 Star Of Mystery   2.37  WIN   1.00  +1.37  +1.37  S/R 100%

July: 11  WIN: 8  LOSE: 3  S/R: 73%  PROFIT: +2.32

(13111311211)  FINISHED First or Second (81.82%)

16 Shadan Joy         1.56  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +5.68  S/R  75% 
15 Imperial Emperor   1.40  WIN   1.00  +0.40  +6.68  S/R  80%  
14 Tahiyra            1.62  WIN   1.00  +0.62  +6.28  S/R  79%
13 Theatre Honours    1.91  WIN   1.00  +0.91  +5.66  S/R  77%
12 Tax For Max R4     1.83  WIN   1.00  +0.62  +4.75  S/R  75% 
11 Royal Mila         1.57  WIN   1.00  +0.57  +4.13  S/R  73%
10 River Tara         1.53  WIN   1.00  +0.53  +3.46  S/R  70%       
 9 Unbreak My Heart   1.91  WIN   1.00  +0.91  +2.93  S/R  67% 
 8 Blinded'lights R4  2.50  WIN   1.00  +1.35  +2.02  S/R  63%
 7 Aurora Vega        1.36  WIN   1.00  +0.36  +0.67  S/R  57%
 6 Mojeyrr            1.91  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +0.31  S/R  50%
 5 Wind In Your Sail  2.25  WIN   1.00  +1.25  +1.31  S/R  60%
 4 Basford            1.67  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +0.16  S/R  50%
 3 Je Ne Sais Quoi    2.37  WIN   1.00  +1.25  +1.16  S/R  67%
 2 Military Order     6.00  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -0.09  S/R  50%
 1 Ghara              1.91  WIN   1.00  +0.91  +0.91  S/R 100%

June: 16  WIN: 12  LOSE: 4  S/R: 75%  PROFIT: +5.68

(1L121L1111111112)  FINISHED First or Second (87.50%)

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