I WILL BE BAIE 6.10 Galway at 11/10

     Guinness Time INH Flat 2m+

Pedigree

£150,000 Che Apr 22; 4th foal; brother to French winners Fashion Baie (2m2f-2m3f hurdle) & Dilable D'Auteuil (2m2f hurdle); dam fourth French 2m1f hurdle only run out of 2m1f Grade 3 hurdle winning half-sister to Irish National third Marcus Du Berlais

  COMPOSITE RATINGS

Trainer Form: 10-29 for 34%         (10)
National Average: 28%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 20%             (10)                       
RPR: 119                            (10)  
Distance: 2m2f+                     (10)                       
Optimum Ground: Yielding            (10)
Jockey: Patrick Mullins             (10) 
National Average: 33%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 27%             (10)                                                
Trainer/Jockey Combo: 36%           (10)       
Total:                             (100)

Winner without a penalty

I Will Be Baie was bought for £150,000 after winning a point for Colin Bowe the previous year and was backed as if defeat was out of the question (4/11) on his rules debut at Punchestown in early June. This was a day where Patrick Mullins cost his ride victory after winning the race, but being disqualified, so in effect a winner without a penalty. During the race this fine rangy type raced between six and eight wide for most of trip, travelled particularly strongly and always looked best and the winner. With expected improvement and a proverbial kick up the backside aimed towards Patrick Mullins, the 5yo grey Crillon gelding is expected to win unless one of the newcomers are above his decent standard. st the post only to be demoted on his 'track' debut in a Punchestown bumper in June.

By the way, despite his greenness on debut Patrick Mullins told us he was very highly thought of after that 'victory'. When he says something like that about a NHF horse we take notice!

Trainer and Jockey Form

Willie Mullins has a national average of 28% and is in sublime form, each of his runners are hard to oppose such is his dominance in Irish Racing. We have never seen figures like this in all of our years in racing and now look at his outstanding results this season whilst wondering how he achieves it?

July:    10-29     34%      -7.70
June:    17-31     55%      +3.41
May:     23-48     48%     +18.03
Total:   50-108    46%     +13.74

For 2023/2024 season the trainer is now an incredible 52-113 for 46% (+22.19) whilst his son Patrick for the same time-frame shows 21-30 for 70% (+18.09).

Timeform View 

 I WILL BE BAIE won his only start in points and tanked round when first past the post at Punchestown on debut 54 days ago. He was subsequently demoted having hung left and bumped his rival in the closing stages, but there's unlikely to be any mistake this time. Sea Music has shown ability between the flags and could pose a threat if the market speaks in his favour, while Docteur Elysees is a player based on pedigree/connections.

Value 

The 11/10 looks perceived value though 5/4 was better and available, but we could not get on at that price. We fully expect the Pacafi to start odds-on given a good paddock!

 1 I Will Be Baie    2.10        1.00

15 Rose Bolt         1.67  WIN   1.00  +0.67  +3.05  S/R  73% 
14 Mister Pink       1.33  WIN   1.00  +0.33  +2.38  S/R  71%
13 Titanium Moon     1.73  WIN   1.00  +0.73  +2.05  S/R  69%
12 Copy Artist       1.73  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +1.32  S/R  67%  
11 Battista          1.57  WIN   1.00  +0.57  +2.32  S/R  73%
10 Watch M Tracer R4 1.53  WIN   1.00  +0.45  +1.75  S/R  70%
 9 Adayar            1.53  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +1.30  S/R  67%
 8 Lion's Pride      1.73  WIN   1.00  +0.73  +2.30  S/R  75% 
 7 Prisha            1.50  WIN   1.00  +0.50  +1.57  S/R  71% 
 6 Purpleplay        2.37  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +1.07  S/R  67%
 5 Yibir             1.50  WIN   1.00  +0.50  +2.07  S/R  80%
 4 Bobby Socks       1.80  WIN   1.00  +0.80  +1.57  S/R  75%
 3 Labalaba          1.40  WIN   1.00  +0.40  +0.77  S/R  67%
 2 New London        2.10  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +0.37  S/R  50%
 1 Star Of Mystery   2.37  WIN   1.00  +1.37  +1.37  S/R 100%

16 Shadan Joy         1.56  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +5.68  S/R  75% 
15 Imperial Emperor   1.40  WIN   1.00  +0.40  +6.68  S/R  80%  
14 Tahiyra            1.62  WIN   1.00  +0.62  +6.28  S/R  79%
13 Theatre Honours    1.91  WIN   1.00  +0.91  +5.66  S/R  77%
12 Tax For Max R4     1.83  WIN   1.00  +0.62  +4.75  S/R  75% 
11 Royal Mila         1.57  WIN   1.00  +0.57  +4.13  S/R  73%
10 River Tara         1.53  WIN   1.00  +0.53  +3.46  S/R  70%       
 9 Unbreak My Heart   1.91  WIN   1.00  +0.91  +2.93  S/R  67% 
 8 Blinded'lights R4  2.50  WIN   1.00  +1.35  +2.02  S/R  63%
 7 Aurora Vega        1.36  WIN   1.00  +0.36  +0.67  S/R  57%
 6 Mojeyrr            1.91  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +0.31  S/R  50%
 5 Wind In Your Sail  2.25  WIN   1.00  +1.25  +1.31  S/R  60%
 4 Basford            1.67  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +0.16  S/R  50%
 3 Je Ne Sais Quoi    2.37  WIN   1.00  +1.25  +1.16  S/R  67%
 2 Military Order     6.00  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -0.09  S/R  50%
 1 Ghara              1.91  WIN   1.00  +0.91  +0.91  S/R 100%