CHEPSTOW FAVOURITES (5 years)
Non-handicap                  Handicap
2yo   23-57    40%    -4.95   7-17      41%    +4.63
3yo   27-50    54%    -1.56   42-112    38%    +3.33
4yo+   2-8     25%    +1.00   68-205    33%    +5.28  
TOTAL 52-115   45%    -5.50   117-334   35%   +13.24

TOP 5 TRAINERS at Chepstow last 5 years      +/-   E
T Carroll (10%)	19-184	 10%	-24.30       +0%   0            
R Millman (11%) 18-124   15%    -32.87       +4%   1         
J O'Shea (8%)	17-142	 12%	-36.37       +4%   1               
D Evans (11%)	16-151	 11%	-30.55       +0%   2           
R Beckett (17%)	15-48	 31%	+24.65      +14%   1 

HOT TRAINERS 29/07/2023 to 27/08/2023        +/-   E
T McGuinness (30%)   3-10    30%   +15.75    +0%   2
E Dunlop (11%)	     18-62   29%   +18.75   +18%   4
R Beckett (18%)	     35-121  29%   +26.08   +11%   1
H & R Charlton (17%) 9-33    27%   +32.16   +10%   1
G Scott (13%)	     6-28    21%   -10.58    +8%   1  
O Sangster (22%)     3-14    21%   -5.14     -1%   1
B Millman (11%)	     7-36    19%   +0.00     +8%   1
E J-Houghton (12%)   11-57   19%   +0.85     +7%   1

COLD LIST TRAINERS  SAW                            E
J G O'Shea (8%)	     28                            1

TOP 5 JOCKEYS at Chepstow last 5 years       +/-   R
R Ryan (14%)      27-133   20%	  +23.65     +6%   0    
H Doyle (15%)     20-95    21%    -16.76     +6%   0  
D Probert (11%)   16-170    9%	  -70.47     -2%   0      
G Mangan (10%)    15-96	   16%	  -24.26     +6%   4
R Kingscote (14%) 12-60	   20%	  -23.64     +6%   0

B Loughnane (16%) 5-17     29%    +18.50    +13%   5

HOT JOCKEYS 29/07/2023 to 27/08/2023         +/-   R 
L Pearson (11%)	7-34	21%	+8.33        +8%   3
H Crouch (14%)	15-75	20%	+6.55        +6%   3

COLD LIST JOCKEY  SAW                              R
G Rooke (8%)	   64    56 days                   4
                           
TOP 5 OWNERS at Chepstow last 5 years        +/-   E
Cross Racing (10%)    7-44  16%    -6.62     +6%   0    
Tidball Millman (16%) 5-13  38%   +10.00    +22%   0    
James Llewellyn (16%) 5-15  33%   +13.62    +17%   0   
Hannah Jones (23%)    4-11  36%    +6.50    +13%   1          
Int Plywood (18%)     4-12  33%    +8.87    +15%   0

Chepstow Fixtures:
Monday 4 September 2023 (LAST FLAT)
Friday 13 October 2023 (NH) Guts, Glory & Good Times
Saturday 14 October 2023 (NH) Guts, Glory & Good Times

CHEPSTOW CONFIGURATION: It is a left-handed, undulating, oval-shaped track, about two miles in extent, with a run-in of five furlongs. While not an out-and-out galloping course, owing to the pronounced undulations, the track puts the emphasis on stamina almost regardless of ground. All races up to a mile are run on the straight course.

FAVOURITES: The sample size at Chepstow is not the biggest so beware a literal translation, but all numbers have value. The course is punter-friendly and a £1 win stake to SP on every race (449 races) produced a profit of +£7.74. Winning favourites at the course show 169-449 for 37.64% so 5% above the national average of 32%. Non-handicap winning favourites score at 45% whilst handicap favourites score at 35%. It is very rare for a racecourse to produce a level stake profit in all age-groups of handicap races (+£13.24).

TRAINERS: There 8 hot trainers with runners for Monday and our angle into the meeting. Between them they saddle 12 runners and we can reasonably expect multiple winners! One of those trainers is Ed Dunlop (11%) and he is having a great season and a great August which shows 16-57 for 28% (+19.21). The strike rate is 17% above his national average. He runs 4 including HAVANA SKY 2.50, PEROVSKIA 3.25, STAR MAP 4.35 & MUSICAL MYSTERY 5.10. A slight negative is the trainer's numbers at the course 2-26 for just 8% (-19.50).

Ralph Beckett (17%) scores 31% at the course (+24.65) so MEXICALI ROSE 2.50 is of special interest.

JOCKEYS: Billy Loughnane (16%) drew a blank at last Thursday's meeting, we doubt he will draw another tomorrow. He has 5 rides which include RITZY 2.15, GINORMOUS 2.50,  TOP OF THE CLASS 3.25, STAR MAP 4.35 & STALINGRAD 5.10.

Gina Mangan (10%) has 4 rides including CYPRIOT DIASPORA 2.15, LITTLE BOY BLUE 4.00, FACT OR FABLE 4.35 & GILT EDGE 5.10

RED FLAG: Owner Hannah Jones (22%) has the reliable and versatile MACS DILEMMA 4.00 running for her tomorrow. This 5yo gelding who was purchased for around £3,000, clearly likes Chepstow and is a 3-time C&D winner there (winning 4 at the course in total), he has also finished in second place twice and third place twice. In fact, he has finished 1-2 or 3 on 16 occasions from 34 starts and given a lot of pleasure to his owner. Those performances have been on all sorts of ground - but we have a question for trainer John O'Shea (8%).

He is 1-1 at Bath scoring very easily on 22 April 2022 - why hasn't he raced there since? Macs Dilemma has raced 19 times since that victory, this is in the remarkable to strange vicinity and now he wears first time blinkers! Also interesting is the fact he prefers female company, 6 of his 7 victories have been partnered by Hollie Doyle (3) Gina Mangan (2) and Mollie Phillips (1). Tomorrow, Georgia Dobie rides him for the first time, and she had a win double at the course last Thursday. Whilst this horse has a place chance at least he will not attract our stake money, but he has attracted our interest and best wishes!

Chepstow takes a fair bit of getting. Because it’s so up hill and down dale, stamina has to come into play and it’s also worth noting that the straight is quite long, meaning that some horses start to race a lot earlier than is ideal. If you’re on one that wants to make the running, for example, you’ll often get a few keen to take you on earlier than you might like, so patience is vital for a jockey. Long-striding horses can often go well on the straight track but, as it’s quite stiff, they definitely need to get home - Jason Weaver