CLASSICAL SONG 4.10 Sandown at 11/10

 Virgin Bet Maiden Fillies' Stakes (Class 3) 7f

Pedigree

€420,000 2yo; tenth foal; sister to 2 winners inc Imperial Ace (1m AW; RPR 96), half-sister to 6 more inc Dylan Mouth (8.5f-1m6f inc 2yo/Italy Gr 1; 116) & Henry Mouth (10.5f/1m4f inc Italy Listed; 108); dam 7f-1m3f winner (inc 1m2f Gr 3; 107)

The Racing Horse Composite

Trainer Form: 14-34 for 41%        (10)
National average: 18%              (10)
Course Strike Rate: 17%            (10)
RPR: 93                            (10)
Optimum Ground: Good               (10)         
Optimum Distance: 7f               (10)
Jockey: Ryan Moore                 (10)
National Average: 18%              (10)
Course Strike Rate: 21%            (10)
Trainer & Jockey Combo: 9%         (10)  
Total:                            (100)

Hard to oppose

Classical Song made a very pleasing start to her career when second over 7f at Goodwood a month ago and this looks like a good opportunity to go one better. The run should be upgraded given her slow start, last away and running, her jockey Ryan Moore used petrol to get a position behind the leaders yet still finished strongly without feeling the whip. That form was franked when the winner was second in a Group 2 at Deauville subsequently, whilst the eighth and tenth from that race have since won! 

Ground conditions

With massive improvement almost certain, Ralph Beckett's filly is hard to oppose if handling today's quicker ground. Her sire Lope De Vega won 3 of his 4 races on good ground (also won on soft) whilst her dam Cottonmouth won 4 of her 5 races on good ground (also won on soft). One of her half-brothers, Dylan Mouth (high class over 1m4f) won 10 of his 14 wins on good, or good to firm ground so the ground will not be an excuse. Her gait suggested a faster surface would suit also!

Trainer Form

Charlie Appleby has a national average of 29%, is 29% at Sandown and 29% with 2yos this season so we need a good rationale to beat his filly. Do we have one? We believe so! Ralph Beckett has a national average of 18% and is in outstanding form currently winning with 14 of his last 34 runners for a strike rate of 41%. His 2yos are in flying form also and we have 2 killer stats! This year Beckett has scored 21-98 for 21% (+6.60) on turf with 2yos, and the last 5-years on turf show him 113-599 for 19% (+0.09). So his last 600 juveniles have produced a profit on turf - extraordinary! To tackle the Appleby we needed good figures and a rationale, members to decide if we have it?

Contender

Beautiful Love for Charlie Appleby will be hard to beat but the Pacafi looks to have the better form. The Godolphin filly was a promising third on debut over 7f at Newmarket. She is a third foal; half-sister to winners Flying Honours (7f-1m2f inc 2yo/Group 3; RPR 108) & Snow Tempest (French 14.5f); dam 1m1f-11.5f winner (inc Group 3; 105), half-sister to Group-placed 7.5f winner Snow out of close relative of Derby/Arc winner Lammtarra; showed promise on debut when third over 7f at Newmarket. 

Timeform View

CLASSICAL SONG shaped like a winner in waiting when runner-up on her debut at Glorious Goodwood. The winner of that race was second in a Group 2 in France next time and this daughter of Lope de Vega can strike at the second time of asking. Godolphin's Beautiful Love looks the chief threat unless the betting vibes are strong surrounding newcomers such as Inherit and/or Skywoman.

Value

There looks to be 5 decent fillies' in this race but our filly should be the best at this stage and we were delighted to get all our stake on at 11/10. We priced her closer to 4/5 with the Appleby horse to beat. 

Classical Song traded at a low of 4.80 and Betfair SP of 7.05 when losing last time, a race in which it raced prominently.

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