WINNERS from WOLVERHAMPTON AW Racecourse Template (Saturday 20 September 2025)
September 20th, 2025
4.19: Perfect Wills Property Protection Trust Nursery Handicap (Class 6) 1m1f104y
Winning[...]
The Racing Horse always enjoys reading the Michael Wilding blogs of Race Advisor. His overview of betting uses pertinent mathematics, something we religiously adhere to. In the past we have contributed pieces to Race Advisor and the discussion. Last week, he was on the money (again) with three blogs relevant to our way of working/thinking, we thought it prudent to share.
https://www.raceadvisor.co.uk/
|
Every major newspaper has a horse racing tipster. Some are popular, some are not. But horse racing is not about popularity! We track all the tips that every major newspaper tipster produces, and have been for sometime. How often do you think they win? Is it 40% of the time, is it 30% of the time? Nope! Since October 2021 we have tracked 26,194 tips and they have won an average of just 18% of the time, losing -748 units profit. By pretty much anybody’s standard that’s poor! So the question is why bother? Michael Wilding of Race Advisor |
The Racing Horse totally agrees with the comments of Michael Wilding. Our advice is always the same, find a source of information that has the potential to be profitable, one that is honest and reliable. One that has simple parameters and one compliant with the individual bettor's needs. Once identified, use that as a base and build from there to find your own pathway.
Not everyone has the requisite time to invest or have the mathematical nous to go it alone or make the transition, so we would like to be part of the process, but fully understand when and if members successfully find their own pathways. Of course, the two are not mutually exclusive to each other.
His next piece was titled "Anybody can do that"
|
I've heard this countless times. If you can’t send me a winner above odds of 8/1, 10/1, 16/1 then you don’t know anything about horse racing. There’s this strange belief that if you can’t pick regular winners at high odds, then you can’t know anything about horse racing. I don't know where it came from. It feels a little bit like a macho culture within horse racing. That may just be my interpretation, but that's the sense I get. What's weird about it, to me at least, is that it's the most illogical thinking! Because the same people who say this, will always agree that the betting market is the best predictor of a horse's chance of winning. If the betting market is the best prediction of a horse's chance of winning, and they want winners at 8/1 or higher with regularity, then they must be confused. By definition an 8/1 horse is going to win around 11% of the time, when you get to odds of 16/1 you are looking at about 6% of the time, so for now we’ll stick with the 8/1 horse! That means you will lose 89% of the time. I don’t know about you, but losing 89% of the time is not what I’d call regularly winning. If we determine 'winning regularly' to be winning more often than you lose, then it is quite literally, mathematically impossible to win regularly at high odds. You can win regularly by betting horses with odds of less than 2.00 (called odds-on because your profit is less than your stake). There is no other way. So next time you hear someone say this, you know they haven't fully understood how odds work. Michael Wilding of Race Advisor |
TRH has heard exactly the same remarks long before our introduction to the general public in June 2011. First, we usually remind them of industry figures that are categoric in nature:
- WINNING FAVOURITES 32%
- WINNING FAVOURITES in NON-HANDICAPS 36%
- WINNING FAVOURITES in HANDICAPS 28%
- FIRST & SECOND FAVOURITES in NON-HANDICAPS 55% (significantly lower in handicaps)
- TOP 5 in the BETTING MARKET 85%
These days we cannot afford to spend time talking to those that Michael describes, we prefer to give that time to those who accept mathematics are the governing force of horse racing betting. Regarding the phrase 'anybody can do that' the most repeated nonsense is when they say 'anybody can back favourites' which of course they can, but making a long-term profit is a bloody hard thing to do! Over the years we have gone head to head with dozens of these flippant merchants and exposed them all.
In another post Michael talks about the need for hard work, he rightly says the lazier we are the less we achieve. TRH recognises those comments, we are never lazy, but from time to time can be guilty of casual, and whilst we are always wary of this nasty blighter it can sneak past the consciousness unnoticed!
Michael's third piece is something we have been aware of for many years and have experienced something similar.
|
Many years ago I released a method of selection finding for free. Thousands of people downloaded it and I used email to stay in touch with them. Within three months almost nobody was using it anymore. In six months nobody was using it anymore, there had been some downswings, losing streaks etc. all the stuff you expect. Was it making a long term profit? Yup! It did for many years after that. That was when I first started to realise that if you don't put in any effort, you give up at the first hurdle. That's why the most successful users of the Race Advisor have taken what I'm saying and implemented it in a way that works for them. My question for you is - do you want it enough to work at it? Michael Wilding of Race Advisor |
The Racing Horse has proved to all, one cannot lose the betting bank following the Pacafi Strategy and it is one of the closest things to no risk betting we know of. Since our launch in June 2011 (and in trials before that), we have made a profit in every single year. Yes, we occasionally have an awkward quarter, but the strategy has always recovered before kicking on again.
The profits are of an incremental nature, but compound staking has made the owner substantial profits allowing us to be part of the 2% that wins from sports betting. Also, it is worth shouting, the rationale that accompanies the nominations are informative, useful and powerful in their own right going forward, and an avenue for profit!
Typically, most members visit, stay for a brief while and then leave despite recording/banking a profit of some sort. It has never made any sense (to us) though we recognise the vast majority of punters do not want to be advised a horse at 8/11, irrespective of its chance or perceived value! These flaky or lazy members have no desire for effort, record-keeping or seeking best prices.
Years ago, one member named Jason B told us we are not sexy and we almost appreciated the comment! We do wonder however, given 98% of sports bettors lose, where has Jason B has gone to get sexy betting? We only know of profit and loss.
By the way, if only we had found or been given no risk betting with incremental profits when we started out in the 60s our life would have been so much different. On the flip side we have a small group of fabulous members within TRH, some of whom have helped us and become friends. We are reminded of a quote from G. Michael Hopf's post-apocalyptic novel titled "Those Who Remain." It is saying about a circle of life, that things must work this way.
Hard times create strong men, strong men create good times, good times create weak men, and weak men create hard times