ZABRISKIE POINT 3.30 Thirsk at 5/4

 British EBF 40th Anniversary Novice Stakes (Class 4) 7f

Pedigree

(n/s 70,000gns Y); fourth foal; dam Listed-placed 1m1f/1m2f winner (RPR 87), half-sister to three winners at 9.4f or more, out of 1m2f winning half-sister to the dam of Sun Chariot winner Kissogram, is granddaughter of top-class miler Milligram

The Racing Horse Composite

Trainer Form: 4-31 for 13%         (10)
National average: 15%              (10)
Course Strike Rate: 50%            (10)
OR & RPR: 93 & 96                  (10)
Optimum Ground: Good                (9)←         
Optimum Distance: 7f               (10)
Jockey: William Buick              (10)
National Average: 23%              (10)
Course Strike Rate: 60%            (10)
Trainer & Jockey Combo: 21%        (10)  
Total:                             (99)

Significant drop in class

This is a significant drop in class for the 93 officially rated colt Zabriskie Point, whose fourth-placed finish in a Class 2 handicap at York last time out sets a good standard. The colt now drops into a Class 4 Novice from a mark of 93 and this looks like a confidence-boosting initiative. He was a winner at Leicester over 5f in May (dam was a Listed-placed winner up to 1m2f) and created a decent impression, whilst his last run of three was at York when finishing strongly over 6f. It is clear the Pacafi now needs a stiffer test, though the sire is sprinter Blue Point there is plenty of stamina on the dam's side of his pedigree, so the 7f looks ideal at this stage! 

Trainer and Jockey Form

Trainer Charlie Hills has a national average of 15% and currently is in decent form. Although the last 14 days have produced just 4 winners for 13% the winners have been priced 15.8, 25/1, 9/1 & 3/1 (+11.88). He has also scored 6 second places at prices 11/1, 11/2, 2/1, 4/5, 4/1 & 9/1 and one of those second places was Looby and she should have won! Hills makes his visits to Thirsk pay scoring, 4-8 for 50% (+9.08) over the past 5 years and of those 4 horses beaten 3 of them have finished second. His combination with jockey William Buick scores 22-106 for 21% (+24.38). Buick shows 3-5 for 60% (+1.58).

Optimum ground

There is a slight concern about the ground for this wager, it is currently good to soft - we would much prefer good ground or faster. The dam Familiarity was never asked to run on good to soft ground or softer winning both her races on quick ground. The sire Blue Point won 7 of his 8 races on good ground so only won once on good to soft.

Contenders

Candonomore was an eye-catcher on his debut at that same venue in July and looks the main danger. Nabilov appeals on pedigree and is a noteworthy debutant, but we doubt that one or the other two debutants beating a 2yo with an OR of 93 or Candonomore who has a RPR of 89.

Timeform View.

 ZABRISKE POINT has improved with each run, despite meeting with defeat last time, but he's still the form pick and has been crying out for a step up to this trip. Candonomore is a danger getting weight from the selection after a promising debut, while all 3 newcomers have some appeal on paper.

Value

The 5/4 looks perceived value though we have a slight concern about ground conditions.

PACAFI Results 2023

.