YARMOUTH FAVOURITES (5 years)
Non-handicap                   Handicap
2yo   42-199	39%   -15.38   11-27	41%    -0.41
3yo   44-82	54%    +9.03   96-241	40%   +15.98
4yo+   2-11	18%    -5.75   81-273	30%   -35.43
TOTAL 88-202	44%   -12.10   188-541	35%   -19.86

TOP 5 TRAINERS at YARMOUTH last 5 years      +/-   E  
W Haggas (23%)     31-122  25%    +5.27      +2%   4 
J & T Gosden (22%) 22-86   26%    +0.27      +4%   2
M Bell (13%)       21-124  17%    -9.38      +4%   2   
C Wall (16%)	   20-101  20%   -10.15      +4%   0   
R Varian (20%)     17-97   18%   -31.95      -2%   5 

HOT TRAINERS 21/08/2023 to 19/09/2023        +/-   E 
C Appleby (29%)	11-34	 32%	 -4.69       +3%   5
R Varian (20%)	17-68	 25%	 -9.72       +5%   5
R Beckett (18%)	24-104	 23%	-11.06       +5%   1

COLD LIST TRAINERS  SAW                            E
Miss A Murphy (9%)   21    23 days                 1
S P C Woods (13%)    15    15 days                 2
J Fanshawe (14%)     14    12 days                 1       

TOP 5 JOCKEYS at YARMOUTH last 5 years       +/-   R
H Doyle (15%)    32-125   26%  +57.94       +11%   0
T Marquand (15%) 32-179   18%   -9.20        +3%   0
W Buick (23%)    30-122   25%  +35.35        -1%   6
J Mitchell (17%) 27-149   18%  -14.71        +1%   4     
R Havlin (15%)   24-127   19%  +12.61        +4%   5
 
HOT JOCKEYS 21/08/2023 to 19/09/2023         +/-   R
W Buick (23%)	 33-115	  29%	 +29.76      +6%   6
J Mitchell (17%) 11-45	  24%	 -13.74      +7%   4
H Crouch (14%)	 11-61	  18%	 -23.49      +4%   2
S Cherchi (10%)	 5-29	  17%	 +40.83      +7%   3
N Callan (14%)	 11-68	  16%	  +0.58      +2%   4

COLD LIST JOCKEYS   SAW                            R
J Crowley (20%)	     33    38 days                 4
R Scott (8%)	     33    22 days                 1
C Howarth (9%)	     25    15 days                 1

TOP 5 OWNERS at YARMOUTH last 5 years        +/-   E
Godolphin (24%)        20-87  23%   -14.68   -1%   6     
H'dan Al Maktoum (21%) 9-39   23%    +2.25   +2%   0     
Shadwell Estate (23%)  8-28   29%    +5.48   +6%   2  
Massie & McBride (21%) 7-15   47%   +18.00  +22%   0
Moham Al Maktoum (15%) 7-27   26%    +3.95  +11%   0

FIXTURES
Thursday 21 September 2023
Monday 16 October 2023

Upcoming Racecourse Templates:
Kempton AW (Friday)
Newmarket (Saturday)

COURSE: A narrow, left-handed, oval track, about 13f in extent, with a run-in of 5 furlongs. There is a straight mile course. Apart from a slight fall just before the run-in, the track is perfectly flat, with sharpish bends. The straight was levelled to remove surface undulations and then resurfaced in 2015.

FAVOURITES: Winning favourites at Yarmouth over the past 5 years show 276-743 for 37.15% and a level stake loss of -£31.96 to a £1 stake. Winning favourites in non-handicaps score 88-202 for 44% (-£12.10) whilst winning favourites in handicaps score  188-541 for 35% (-£19.86) so a 9% differential. Best category for winning strike rate is clearly the 3yo winning favourites in non-handicaps who have recorded 44-82 for a big 54% and a level stake profit of +£9.03.

TRAINERS: Two of the top 5 trainers at the course look set to battle for winners against Charlie Appleby (29%) featured in our Red Flag segment.

Hot trainer Roger Varian (20%) has 5 runners including BONKERSINABUNDANCE 2.05, AL HUJAIJA 2.40, JOYCEAN WAY 3.10, FALL IN LOVE & MUKADDAMAH 3.45.

William Haggas (23%) has 4 runners including LOU LOU'S GIFT 2.40, PERSIST 3.45, LORD BERTIE 4.20 & TAMILLA 4.55

JOCKEYS: William Buick (23%) has 6 runners and will surely ride a winner, his rides include ROMANTIC STYLE 2.40, EDGE OF BLUE 3.10, SAPPHIRE SEAS 3.45, FIRST SIGHT 4.20, TYPICAL WOMAN 4.55 & CHAMPAGNE SARAH 5.30.

Rob Havlin (15%) and Jack Mitchell (17%) have 9 runners between them and those rides should be processed.

Jim Crowley (20%) will come off the cold list this week! He is currently 0-35 over a period of 39 days and 0-27 over the past 14 days. We cannot remember seeing him with such figures given the types of stables and horses he is now associated with. He has 4 rides including PLAGE DE HAVRE 3.10, AL ASIFAH 3.45, ACOTANGO 4.20 & BEELZEBUB 5.30.

OWNERS: Godolphin (24%) have 6 runners at the course tomorrow, those 5 trained by Charlie Appleby featured in our Red Flag segment, but also RETURN TO DUBAI 4.20 for Saeed bin Suroor and to be ridden by Kieran O'Neill.

Shadwell Estate (24%) have 2 runners in MUKADDAMAH & AL ASIFAH 3.45 and likely to provide the winner for that race.

RED FLAG: TRH keeps hearing from the ITV Racing Presenters how disappointing the form of Charlie Appleby is this season, setting aside Royal Ascot, we totally disagree. As always, we bring the receipts to back up our claim! Looking at a single set of results and measuring everything against them is both foolhardy and a mistake, and that is what has happened! 2022 showed Appleby having a magical year in the UK, which he could not hope to replicate, scoring 152-488 for a massive 31% (+6.67) and winning prize money £6,251,358.

No UK trainer in modern history can dare ascribe to those sorts of figures in any context! Striking at 31% from 488 runners at any level was previously deemed impossible, and to record more winners at the headquarters of racing over any other course, including AW Racecourses, was nothing short of spectacular!

FOR THE RECORD: In 2022 Charlie Appleby saddled 47 winners from 118 runners for 40% and a level stake profit of +£36.32 at the Newmarket Racecourses! Only our members are fully aware of these figures. With no intention to patronise, a £10 win stake on every single runner at the course would have produced a profit of £363.32. These are blind figures without filtration as to ground, jockey or draw, and sometimes with multiple runners in a race, and competing with Godolphin trainer Saeed bin Suroor. Extraordinary! By the way, his second highest total was at Kempton with 19 winners, whilst his next best courses were Ascot, Goodwood and Newbury. This is the level he is operating at.

TRH always measures trainer success and form against their 5-year record and that is probably the best measure. Some argue that a 3-year measure is more recent so pertinent, but we disagree. A single bad or good year could skew the figures. Appleby has a national average of 29% and we must measure against these figures for meaningful comparisons. His running numbers are down this current year racing only 279 times which is over 200 behind last year, and nobody is acknowledging his wins/success in America, where he had another win double from 3 runners over the weekend!

Looking at his runners going forward, we remind members of his Yarmouth Course figures over 5 years showing 11-36 for 31% with 10 second places meaning 21-36 for 58.33% finish first or second. His 2yos this year score 23-79 for 29% with another 11 second places. He has 5 runners at Yarmouth tomorrow including ROMANTIC STYLE 2.40, HONEST DESIRE & EDGE OF BLUE 3.10, SAPPHIRE SEAS 3.45 & FIRST SIGHT 4.20. The first three named are 2yos.