PACAFI (Thursday 19 October 2023)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

WHIP CRACKER 5.00 Chelmsford at 1/2

 CCR Novice Stakes (For horses Which Have Run No More Than Once) (Class 5) 7f

Pedigree

160,000gns Y; first foal; dam once-raced half-sister to winners Advanced (smart 6f-7f), Wunder (1m1f Group 3) and Copernican (1m3f-1m4f) out of German 7f winning sister to Listed winners Winning Dash (1m2f) & Wonder Of Dashing (7f)

The Racing Horse Composite

Trainer Form: 3-7 for 43%          (10)
National average: 13%              (10)
Course Strike Rate: 18%            (10)
RPR: 91                            (10)
Optimum Ground: Good/Standard      (10)       
Optimum Distance: 7f               (10)
Jockey: Oisin Murphy               (10)
National Average: 19%              (10)
Course Strike Rate: 23%            (10)
Trainer & Jockey Combo: 13%        (10)  
Total:                            (100)

Excellent debut, hard to beat

Whip Cracker is a 2yo Cracksman colt, a 160,000gns yearling and looks a promising individual. He was second of 6 in a Class 4 Newmarket Maiden when 4/1 second favourite over 7f on good to firm ground behind a Godolphin 4/6 hot-pot. He moved through the race in an eye-catching manner and stuck on well to beat all bar an above-average type who had the benefit of experience. He must surely win this Class 5 off a RPR of 91 unless one of the newcomers turn out to be a fair bit above-average.

Trainer Form

Richard Hughes (13%) is in good form with his horses and seems to have a decent batch of 2yos this year, he shows 15-114 for 13% with his juveniles and this colt could be his best yet. At the course the trainer scores 39-216 for 18% (+49.27) and these represents his best figures at any of the UK Racecourses over the past 5 years. Whip Cracker is ridden by Oisin Murphy (19%) who records 45-195 for 23% (+22.79) at Chelsmford. The jockey has only ridden 10 times for Hughes and has scored one winner.

Timeform View

Having shaped with plenty of promise on debut at Newmarket, WHIP CRACKER looks the way to go. The market should be revealing where newcomers Wide Margin and Silvaplana are concerned, with the fomer marginally preferred for forecast purposes.

Perceived Value

With a good paddock and trip to post the 1/2 is surely perceived value!

PACAFI Results 2023.

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