ROCHEVAL 11.50 Ayr at 13/8

Coral Get Closer To The Action Junior "National Hunt" Hurdle (Class 4) 2m

Pedigree

€65,000 2yo; fourth foal; dam French/Swiss 2m3f-2m6f hurdle/chase winner, half-sister to useful 2m hurdler County Zen out of French 1m6f/2m1f hurdle winner

The Racing Horse Composite 

Trainer Form: 3-18 for 17%          (10)
National average: 13%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 15%             (10)
RPR: NA                             (10)
Optimum Ground: Soft                (10)      
Optimum Distance: 2m to 2m+         (10)
Jockey: Patrick Wadge (3)           (10)
National Average: 14%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 12%             (10)
Trainer & Jockey Combo: 17%         (10)
Total:                             (100)

Bred for the winter game

Kapgarde was a high class French jumper and a very good sire costing €15,000 in 2022, his progeny includes Garde La Victoire, whilst the dam won over hurdles at 2m4f and a chase at 2m3f so plenty of stamina in soft ground on show! With this breeding it was a surprise to see Rocheval win his bumper at first attempt showing pace and then strength.

Travelled strongly then finished powerfully

One had to be impressed with the debut of Rocheval in an Aintree bumper over 17f on heavy ground last month where he travelled beautifully in the conditions before powering to the line. This 3yo son of Kapgarde is of immense interest on his hurdle bow and if he jumps well enough will be very hard to beat in this Ayr Class 4 Junior Hurdle. This looks like a good acquisition and has been given 30 days rest since his debut and that should be fine for this strong looking juvenile.

Trainer Form

Lucinda Russell has improved her stable set-up and promised to step forward from previous years. Last year she scored 71-398 for 18% (-18.65) and £1,528,225 in prize money. This year she is behind the clock scoring 33-203 for 16% (-48.53) and £362,851. Her national average is 13% so both sets of figures have a considerably bigger strike rate. At Ayr over the past 5-years she shows 30-198 for 15% (-2.47) whilst her combination with conditional jockey Patrick Wadge is 35-204 for 17% (-24.53). Given Lucinda's relationships with the Scudamores she is well positioned to comment on jockeyship, she said of Wadge: "He’s one of my best work jockeys – he used to ride Ahoy Senor and now rides Haute Estime. He’s a super horseman."

Contenders

I Wish You also made an encouraging start to career when 6 lengths second of 8 to Rocheval in the Aintree bumper and this irritates and there is every chance he can build on that run now hurdling and could be the main danger. Summer Night City is also a last time out winner and current second favourite, but has to give 7lbs to our wager and 10lbs if we take Patrick Wadge's 3lb claim into accound and that looks a tough task! Also, it is strange, given the form and breeding, that his owner/trainer runs him on soft or heavy ground and something we cannot explain!

 Timeform View

 It was highly encouraging that ROCHEVAL was able to make a winning start in style in a 17f course bumper last month considering he's bred to need time and distance, so he's a straightforward choice to follow up on this switch to hurdling. I Wish You is fancied to chase home his stablemate once again.

Perceived Value

On this occasion it is hard to be specific about perceived value but we would not offer 13/8 about the Pacafi given our rationale and doubt we would offer 11/8 or even 5/4.

PACAFI Results 2023.