The Racing Horse offers our Racecourse Template for Cheltenham Saturday 16 December 2023. There is a 7-race card and the going is expected to be soft.

FAVOURITES (5 years)
NON-HANDICAP RACES              HANDICAP RACES
Hurdle 36-101	36%   -24.92	22-90	 24%	-9.59
Chase  50-109	46%    +5.49	28-110	 25%   -18.24
NHF     6-26	23%    -6.13  	0-0		
TOTAL  92-236	39%   -25.56	50-200	 25%   -27.83

TOP TRAINERS at Cheltenham (past 5 years)     +/-   E
N Henderson (22%)   34-216   16%   -26.55     -6%   4
W P Mullins (12%)   32-263   12%  -118.03     +0%   0
G Elliott (19%)	    20-211    9%   -18.74    -10%   0
H De Bromhead (14%) 19-120   16%   +15.52     +2%   0
Dan Skelton (18%)   19-212    9%   -83.66     -9%   6

HOT TRAINERS 16/11/2023 to 15/12/2023         +/-   E
P Nicholls (24%) 26-87	 30%	-3.49         +6%   5
K Bailey (16%)	 10-35	 29%	-6.04        +13%   1
N T-Davies (15%) 14-54	 26%	+5.33        +11%   3
H Fry (18%)	 6-25	 24%	-2.00         +6%   3
V Williams (17%) 12-51	 24%	-7.89         +7%   3

TOP JOCKEYS at Cheltenham (past 5 seasons)    +/-   R
N de Boinville (22%) 22-126   17%    +5.66    -5%   4
Sam T-Davies (15%)   20-173   12%   -49.44    -3%   3 
Paul Townend (19%)   18-80    23%    -9.81    +4%   0
Harry Skelton (21%)  18-169   11%   -84.66   -10%   6
R Blackmore (17%)    14-76    18%   -15.59    +1%   0

HOT JOCKEYS 16/11/2023 to 15/12/2023          +/-   R
Charlie Deutsch (14%) 13-45   29%    +2.70   +15%   3
N De Boinville (22%)  12-46   26%    -4.00    +4%   4
Harry Cobden (23%)    21-81   26%    -0.74    +3%   6
Paddy Brennan (20%)   5-20    25%    -1.00    +5%   1
Gavin Sheehan (17%)   12-53   23%    -1.12    +6%   2
Mark Walsh (16%)      10-45   22%   +10.88    +6%   1
Bryony Frost (16%)    4-18    22%    -1.00    +6%   1
Sam T-Davies (15%)    11-53   21%    -6.00    +6%   3

TOP OWNERS at Cheltenham (past 5 seasons)     +/-   E
J P McManus (17%)    27-213   13%   -48.89    -4%   3
Cheveley Park (16%)  9-22     41%   +16.49   +25%   0
Munir & Souede (17%) 8-80     10%   -28.27    -7%   0
Gigginstown (6%)     6-87     7%     -9.90    +1%   0
R A Bartlett (13%)   5-17     29%    +8.87   +16%   1

Fixtures
Monday 1 January 2024

CHELTENHAM RACECOURSE: The course is left handed, undulating, with stiff fences that place a premium on sound jumping. The last half mile is uphill, although the lead changes hands on the run-in less frequently than might be expected. Prominent-racers often fare well on the chase course, especially in races up to 3m. On the New Course, the hurdles track has just two flights in the last six furlongs, resulting in more emphasis on stamina. Large-field races over 2m often go to hold-up horses, as there can be a tendency to go for home too soon. Jockeys often steer a wide course in the winter months searching for better ground and this can lead to trouble in-running towards the stand rail in the straight.

WINNING FAVOURITES: Winning favourites at Cheltenham over the past 5-years show 142-436 for 32.57% and a loss of -53.39 to SP. The sample size is small (relatively speaking) so beware a literal translation, but the strike rate mirrors the national average. Course and distance form is always advantageous, but more so at this unique racecourse.

TRAINERS: Since the start of the 2018/19 season Nicky Henderson (22%) has saddled the most winners, sending out 39-284 for 13.73%. In total he has trained 224 winners at the course at around 13%. Willie Mullins (28%) is 35-321 for 10.90%, though only two of those winners – Stormy Ireland (2022 Relkeel Hurdle) and Dads Lad in a 2m handicap chase at last year’s Showcase Meeting have been outside the Festival in March. In total he has trained 102 winners at the course at around 11%. These smaller strike rates prove how hard it is to have winners at this course!

Nicky Henderson (22%) has 4 runners including WISEGUY 12.40, CITY CHIEF 2.25, SHANAGH BOB 3.00 & THEATRE GLORY 3.35

Paul Nicholls has a national average of 24% yet scores just 18-200 for 9% (-101.75) at Cheltenham over the past 5-years. These figures are hard to explain though in part-mitigation there have been 28 second places within those figures. TRH has said many times over the last couple of years that Nicholls number one goal is being champion trainer, not having Cheltenham winners. He runs KABRAL DU MATHAN 12.05, MOFASA 12.40, MONMIRAL 1.50 & IL RIDOTO 1.50, THREEUNDERTHRUFIVE 2.25

Former assistant Dan Skelton (18%) follows the Nicholls modus operandi and scores 19-212 for 9% (-83.66). He has 6 runners including  KOUROSH 12.05, CALICO 1.15, JAY JAY REILLY 1.50, PROTEKTORAT 2.25, ILLICO DE COTTE 3.00 & NURSE SUSAN 3.35 

JOCKEYS: Nico de Boinville is the most prolific jockey at Cheltenham during this period with 24-151 for 15.89%. He has 4 good rides including WISEGUY 12.40, CITY CHIEF 2.25, SHANAGH BOB 3.00 & THEATRE GLORY 3.35.

Harry Cobden (23%) has 6 rides including KABRAL DU MATHAN 12.05, MOFASA 12.40, MADARA 1.15, MONMIRAL 1.50, THREEUNDERTHRUFIVE 2.25 & ILOVETHENIGHTLIFE 3.35

OWNERS: J P McManus is easily top trainer at the course and has 3 runners tomorrow but 2 in the 1.50 which looks to be targeted. His runners include EXCELSIS DEO 1.15, SO SCOTTISH & FAKIR D'OUDAIRIES 1.50 where we will probably stake and have a stake saver.

R A Bartlett (13%) has an entry in CADELL 3.00 trained by Lucinda Russell and ridden by Derek Fox.

BY THE WAY: TRH has backed our horse PENTLAND HILLS 1.25 Doncaster at 10/1. For once we have optimum conditions but just need to have the requisite fitness levels. Our horse has won fresh and if Nicky has him as well as he says then a place beckons at the very least! Best bookmaker price is now 13/2 but 6/1 generally so our 10/1 was perceived value as advised here yesterday. Would like to see the 13/2 disappear and shorten further. Normally we are very realistic and do not get too excited about things but on this occasion we are thinking we have a chance, a real chance! Because we have secured 10/1 we will employ two small stake savers. Worth reminding our members we have the best horse in the race with an OR of 140 and James Bowen might suit him.

There is not a Pacafi today, cannot find an edge. Already looking at the cards for tomorrow (06.04am Saturday)...