.Chepstow Racecourse hosts the 2023 Welsh Grand National on Wednesday 27 December 2023. Due to start at 2.50pm it is the biggest event on the Wales racing calendar with a host of staying chasers tackling the prestigious marathon. It is a handicap chase race run on a left handed track with 23 fences to be jumped over a distance of 3m6f130y. It is often a gruelling race, with deep mid-winter ground meaning only the strongest of stayers prevailing!

The Racing Horse spoke to General Manager Lindsay Knox this week regarding her thoughts on this great race, she excitedly said: "This has been the one date spoken about daily since I started in June and to say we are very excited for the Coral Welsh Grand National is an understatement.  I have been very lucky with inheriting an experienced and knowledgeable team who have been guiding me though the traditions of the day.  Behind the scenes a lot of preparation has been done to make the day a success. This meeting is a firm favourite with many so if you are returning welcome back and if this is your first time with us, we hope you have an amazing day and thank you for coming." 

The Welsh Grand National has been sponsored by Coral Bookmakers since 1973, making this the longest sponsorship in jump racing. This race is the feature of ITV Racing's Christmas coverage on 27 December which is also broadcast on Sports Racing. 

The Racing Horse hopes to contribute to this great race using only pertinent, contextual and relevant information. We also provide our CHEPSTOW RACECOURSE TEMPLATE to look at the card as a whole.

WHO is INTERESTED in the HORSE WHO FINISHED SECOND?

The race has been abandoned six times because of being waterlogged, frost or snow and four of the last 10 renewals have been rescheduled to run in January. The last 14 renewals have been run on either soft (6) or heavy (8) ground which means you need to look for testing ground specialists. The venue, month, weather, and ground conditions is the nature of the beast in regards to this great race, so from a betting perspective best to accept its inherent nature! Flaky types need not apply.

Let's look at some recent 21 year trends:

21/21: Won between 1-5 chases (100%)
21/21: Raced within the last 49 days (100%)
21/21: Won over at least 3m over fences before (100%)
19/21: Placed in the top 4 last time out (90%)
19/21: Carried 11st or less in weight (90%)
18/21: Aged 9yo or younger (86%)
15/21: Aged 8yo or younger (71%)
15/21: Carried 10st 8lbs or less (71%)
14/21: Returned 10/1 or shorter (67%)

• The favourite finishing positions over the past 20 years show 2, 1, (3, F), 6, 6, 8, 3, 5, PU, 2, PU, (4, 7), PU, 1, 4, 1, 6, 1, 5, PU, so just 4 winning favourites for 20%. One favourite was a faller though 4 were pulled up before the finish.
• The average winning SP in the last 21 years is 9/1
• GB based: 18 winners with 54 additional placings from 341 runners
• IRE based: 2 winners with 5 additional placings from 25 runners
• FR based: 0 winners with 0 additional placings from 3 runners
• David Pipe is 0-22 for this race whilst Peter Bowen is 0-11
• Of the last 21 renewals, the biggest-priced winner was Dream Alliance in 2009 winning at 20/1 for trainer Philip Hobbs and jockey Tom O'Brien.
• The best trend factor which had produced 10+ winners is when runners ran in a Class 2 last time out, whilst the worst factor is when a horse has 6 starts in the past year , this trend shows a record of 0-55. Not sure of the validity of these trend factors but they exist.
• Male horses have produced 19 winners from a total of 356 runners whilst female horses are just 1 winner from 13 runners.
• Looking at the breeding angle over the past renewals we look at the stallions whose offspring have produced multiple winners of the Welsh Grand National and note the following: Flemensfirth (2 winners), Milan (2 winners) then Old Vic 0-12, Kayf Tara 0-11, Beneficial 0-8, Oscar 0-7 and Presenting 0-7.

So what have the trends told us? Given 7 pieces of specific information the advice is to back a male horse, one who has won over fences before, won between 1 and 5 chases and raced within the last 49 days. Furthermore, one who will carry less than 11st, aged 9yo or younger and placed in the top 4 last time out. Following these trends gives a recurrence factor of 139-148 for 94.56%. Be assured, there will be fancies who fall outside this recurrence factor!

 The excitement is building with less than a week left until the pride of Welsh Racing unfolds at Chepstow Racecourse and The Racing Horse is excited!

This race epitomises the enduring passion and spirit of National Hunt Racing, the people involved and those who support it. Furthermore, it is in safe hands with the wonderful friendliness, energy and work ethic of General Manager Lindsay Knox. With the welcoming and festive atmosphere of Chepstow it is a must-attend event on the British racing calendar and TRH cannot wait to arrive at the course and enjoy all of the above! Special thanks to Lindsay, Candice and Martin...

For those hoping to secure a last-minute spot at the event, you are in luck, with a range of ticket options and hospitality packages still available (at the time of publication). There is musical entertainment from the Mathern Male Voice Choir and a Tom Jones tribute act and more, good value admission options starting at just £35pp

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