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The Racing Horse offers our Chepstow Racecourse Template for Tuesday 16 January 2024. There is a 7-race card. The going is expected to be good to soft, soft in places.
CHEPSTOW FAVOURITES (5 years) Non-handicap Handicap Hurdle 66-132 50% +3.81 33-119 28% -22.67 Chase 8-17 47% -2.57 52-155 34% -6.56 NHF 15-48 31% -11.56 0-0 TOTAL 89-197 45% -10.31 85-274 31% -29.23 TOP 5 TRAINERS at Chepstow last 5 years +/- E Paul Nicholls (24%) 58-222 26% -32.85 +2% 0 Evan Williams (11%) 26-247 11% -31.25 +0% 5 Fergal O'Brien (19%) 16-123 13% -34.52 -6% 0 Jonjo O'Neill (15%) 16-128 13% -47.04 -2% 2 Ven Williams (17%) 15-97 15% -5.62 -1% 2 HOT TRAINERS 17/12/2023 to 15/01/2024 +/- E N Henderson (22%) 23-70 33% +3.88 +11% 1 Tom Lacey (16%) 7-23 30% -1.00 +14% 3 Olly Murphy (17%) 14-66 21% -2.56 +4% 1 Jeremy Scott (12%) 3-15 20% -1.00 +8% 4 J O'Neill (15%) 11-57 19% +6.20 +4% 2 COLD TRAINERS SAW E Rebecca Curtis (12%) 35 78 days 2 Kim Bailey (16%) 35 33 days 1 TOP 5 JOCKEYS at Chepstow last 5 years +/- R Harry Cobden (23%) 40-153 26% -41.95 +3% 0 Adam Wedge (13%) 20-175 11% -18.05 -2% 3 Ben Jones (14%) 16-76 21% +16.58 +7% 4 Jonjo O'Neill (16%) 15-108 14% -33.63 -2% 3 Paddy Brennan (20%) 14-73 19% +2.47 -1% 0 HOT JOCKEYS 17/12/2023 to 15/01/2024 +/- R Lorcan Williams (13%) 6-21 29% -1.27 +16% 4 Ned Fox (19%) 4-14 29% -1.00 +10% 2 Stan Sheppard (15%) 5-18 28% -1.00 +13% 3 James Bowen (13%) 18-65 28% -3.62 +15% 3 COLD JOCKEY SAW Sean Houlihan (6%) 54 59 days 3 TOP 6 OWNERS at Chepstow last 5 years +/- E William Rucker (14%) 11-63 17% -4.87 +3% 1 John P McManus (17%) 10-69 14% +1.40 -3% 0 Colm Donlon (24%) 6-14 43% +11.93 +18% 0 David Brace (13%) 6-24 25% +15.00 +13% 0 Walters Plant (19%) 6-40 15% -13.05 -4% 2 Chepstow Fixtures: Tuesday 16 January 2024 Tuesday 30 January 2024 Forthcoming Racecourse Templates: Kempton AW (Wednesday 17 January 2024)
CHEPSTOW CONFIGURATION: Chepstow is a left-handed, undulating, oval course, nearly two miles around with eleven fences to a circuit, a five-furlong home straight and a run-in of 250 yards. Conditions can be very testing. With five fences in the straight, the first part of which is downhill, front runners - or those leading into the straight - do well here, especially over shorter distances, and the fences don't claim the number of casualties that might be expected.
FAVOURITES: Chepstow is a punter friendly racecourse. The last 5 years show 174 winning favourites from 471 races for 36.94% (-39.54) so around +4% above the national average. Non-handicap winning favourites score 89-197 for 45% whilst handicap winning favourites score 85-274 for 31% for a 14% differential.
BEST CATEGORY: Non-handicap hurdles 66-132 for 50% (+3.81) ←
WORST CATEGORY: Handicap hurdles 33-119 for 28% (-22.67)
TRAINERS: Evan Williams (11%) is second-top trainer at Chepstow and he has 5 runners at the meeting, hard to spot an obvious winner!
The templates usually offer us an angle into the meeting and it might come from our 5 hot trainers who have 11 entries between them. We also have 2 class trainers on the cold list and they should definitely be followed from here. Rebecca Curtis (12%) does not the quality ammunition of former years but remains a quality of trainer, she has 2 runners. Kim Bailey (16%) is a premier league trainer and he has just the one runner. Together, the pair 0-70 and it is our suggestion both will come off the cold list sooner rather than later. They are now on our follow and filter list!
JOCKEYS: On a recent and previous red flag we talked about James Bowen (14%) and how he was primed to ride some serious winners, that is now happening courtesy of Nico de Boinville's injury. We note 3 of his last 6 rides have won, all for Nicky Henderson at prices of 5/4, 11/8 and 4/5. Looking at December he scored 13-66 for 20% and now January shows 8-27 for 30% so a jockey on the up with confidence rising. He has 3 rides today and 5 more at Newbury tomorrow.
Ben Jones (14%) rides 21% at Chepstow and has 4 rides including a couple of favoured runners and a couple of complete outsiders. His rides include VALENS BRUYEE 12.55, LOWRY'S BAR 2.35, HOUSE OF STORIES 3.10 & RISK DE PLUIE 3.45
OWNERS: Leading owner at the course William Rucker (14%) has an entry in HURRICANE HIGHWAY 2.05
Walters Plant (19%) have 2 runners at the course including STEEL ALLY 12.55 & SLIP ROAD 2.35
RED FLAG: Sam Twiston-Davies (15%) has not made the best start to 2024 scoring just 1-24 for a miserly 4%, but we sense a bounce-back tomorrow given his 4 good rides. The beauty of the racecourse templates is that they are always factual and dispel preconceived notions. For example, we assumed Chepstow was a course that Sam rode well but the computer says no! We were aware that his father Nigel scored 17% at the course over the past 5 years, but over the same time frame Sam shows 9-104 for 9%. This represents less than 2 winners per year and something hard to acknowledge. In fact there are only 5 or 6 courses he strikes less well at than Chepstow!
We have decided to play stop at a winner from his 4 rides tomorrow including STEEL ALLY 12.55, BALLYCAMUS 1.30, SHESUPINCOURT 2.05 & LORD OF CHESHIRE.
PERTINENCE12.55 (Winning favs: 50%)
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Record times for Chepstow are very quick, which shows how slick it can be when the ground is fast, but horses can finish strung out like washing when it gets soft. Punters really must take note of conditions then, if they’re having a bet, because horses with stamina limitations can get home when the going is right for them, while it can be a real slog when it’s heavy. The other things to consider seriously are the undulations and the downhill run from the last. If you walk round the course, for example, you’ll be aware that, from several places out in the country, you can’t see the stands. The run-in, on the other hand, is quite steeply downhill, very quick on fast ground, and that’s why you often see horses make a mistake at the final jump - Mick Fitzgerald
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