The Racing Horse offers our Kempton AW Racecourse Template for Wednesday 6 March 2024. There is a 9-race card containing 7 Handicaps and a Maiden Stakes Race. The Polytrack surface is expected to ride standard to slow.

This looks a tricky meeting and not the usual standard, but there has to be 9 winners and hopefully our pertinence will find a number of them.

Winning Favourites (5 Years)
Non-handicap                   Handicap
2yo   104-265	39%   -47.86   38-104	 37%	+3.21
3yo   127-256	50%    -9.05   132-426	 31%   -50.21
4yo+   44-102	43%    -4.11   222-707	 31%   -71.54
TOTAL 275-623	44%   -61.02   392-1237	 32%  -118.54

TOP 5 TRAINERS at KEMPTON past 5 years        +/-   E
Andrew Balding (15%)  77-462   17%   +16.41   +2%   1  
Charlie Appleby (29%) 67-196   34%   -34.27   +5%   0   
Roger Varian (20%)    58-248   23%   -30.35   +3%   0
Richard Hannon (11%)  46-413   11%   -97.25   +0%   3    
J & T Gosden (21%)    41-201   20%   -41.68   +0%   0

TOP 5 TRAINERS at KEMPTON 2023                +/-   E
Andrew Balding (15%)  25-142  18%   -14.90    +3%   1      
Charlie Appleby (29%) 16-46   35%    +2.27    +6%   0   
Roger Varian (20%)    16-66   24%    -6.81    +4%   0     
James Fanshawe (14%)  14-61   23%    +0.75    +9%   0        
J & T Gosden (21%)    14-65   22%   -12.26    +1%   0

HOT TRAINERS 05/02/2024 to 05/03/2024         +/-   E
Andrew Balding (15%)	8-32   25%   -1.00   +10%   1
Hugo Palmer (14%)	6-27   22%   -2.00    +8%   1
Simon Dow (8%)	        3-14   21%  +23.50   +13%   2
Charlie Johnston (14%) 10-47   21%   -5.16    +7%   1

COLD TRAINER    SAW                                 E
S Kirk (5%)      34   159 days                      1
    
TOP 5 JOCKEYS at KEMPTON past 5 years         +/-   R
David Probert (12%)  87-733   12%    -39.66   +0%   2
Oisin Murphy (19%)   80-390   21%    -45.30   +2%   0 
Daniel Muscutt (13%) 73-541   13%   -100.13   +0%   1     
William Buick (23%)  71-300   24%    -62.93   +1%   0
Hollie Doyle (15%)   70-499   14%   -120.55   -1%   3

TOP 5 JOCKEYS at KEMPTON 2023                 +/-   R
Oisin Murphy (19%)   32-156   21%   -15.86    +2%   0  
David Probert (12%)  23-147   16%   +75.85    +4%   2
Daniel Muscutt (13%) 22-147   15%   -48.67    +2%   1    
William Buick (23%)  21-89    24%   -15.07    +1%   0  
Rossa Ryan (16%)     18-128   14%   -29.53    -2%   5

HOT JOCKEYS 05/02/2023 to 05/03/2024          +/-   R
Rossa Ryan (16%)      22-84   26%   +12.00   +10%   5
Clifford Lee (13%)     7-29   24%    +5.08   +11%   2
Marco Ghiani (14%)     8-40   20%    -0.07    +6%   1
Callum Shepherd (11%)  8-43   19%   +18.50    +8%   3
Billy Loughnane (15%) 15-86   17%   +12.79    +2%   5

COLD JOCKEYS             SAW                        R 
Richard Kingscote (13%)   47   102 days             2

TOP 5 OWNERS at Kempton past 5 years          +/-   E
Godolphin (25%)	     95-330   29%   -66.44    +4%   0
King Power (13%)     23-124   19%   -26.94    +6%   0  
Shadwell Est (24%)   18-62    29%   +10.88    +5%   0
Opulence Thoro (18%) 14-48    29%    +9.44   +11%   1
Juddmonte (23%)	     14-54    26%    -7.26    +3%   0
    
FIXTURES:						
Wednesday 6 March 2024	
Wednesday 13 March 2024
Wednesday 27 March 2024	
Monday 1 April 2024	
Wednesday 3 April 2024

CONFIGURATION: Kempton is a right-handed, Polytrack, flat, oval-shaped course with two loops. The inner circuit, used for races over 5f and 10f is sharp and has a finishing straight of just under 2f, favouring the speedy, handy type, markedly so over the minimum trip. The turn on the outer course is more sweeping and the straight is approximately 3f long, making for a fairer test. Over both 5f and 6f, there is a relatively short run to the first bend.

FAVOURITES: Kempton Racecourse Template offers us a huge sample giving the figures some real substance! Winning favourites at the course over the past 5-years show 667-1860 for 35.86% and a level stake loss of -179.56. Non-handicap winning favourites score at 44% as opposed to handicap favourites who score at 32% for a 12% differential.

BEST CATEGORY: 3yo NON-HANDICAPS 127-256 for 50% (-9.05) ← ← ←
WORST CATEGORY: 4yo HANDICAPS 222-707 for 31% (-71.54) ←

TRAINERS: Top trainer at the course Andrew Balding (15%) has a single runner in CITY SAINT 4.55 to be ridden by Hayley Turner.

Richard Hannon (11%) has been one of the biggest underachievers as a trainer and we rarely get involved with his runners, but based on volume sits in fourth place on the leader board and almost -100pts. He has 3 runners tomorrow but hard to see any of them winning.

JOCKEYS: Four jockeys of interest with 16 rides between them and they look an angle into the meeting with some form of stop at a winner then repeat. Rossa Ryan's (16%) rides include EL PRO 4.55, STARSONG 6.00, BEAUEN ARROWS 7.00, AMERIGO VESPUCCI 8.00 & HEAVENLY WISH 8.30.

Billy Loughnane's (15%) rides include McCAULEY'S TAVERN 5.30, MOKAATIL 6.00, MASHADI 6.30, SWISS ROWE 7.30 & ALIOSKI 8.30

Hollie Doyle (15%) has 3 rides including SITCOM 4.55, LIBRA TIGER 6.00 & MUY MUY GUAPO 7.30.

Callum Shepherd (11%) also has 3 rides including WAKE UP HARRY 5.30, ROMAN EMPEROR 6.30 & EAUX DE VIE 8.30

OWNERS: From our leader board only Opulence Thoroughbreds (19%) has a runner in JUNGLE MAC 6.30 trained by Jack Channon and to be ridden by Charles Bishop.

RED FLAG: Derby winning jockey Richard Kingscote (13%) is having something of a downturn in his career in the UK. He has had stints in America and latterly Saudi Arabia and this partly explains things. Weighing 8st 8lbs he has no weight problems, understands the fractions so rides the AW Racecourses particularly well. He posted a personal best in 2021 scoring 128 winners (13%). The following year in 2022 he dipped slightly and scored 98 winners (14%) though he only had 6 rides in December of that year and could easily have hit the ton, but for going to America. But then, 2023 showed just 72 winners (11%) - so why was that?

His two main trainers are Michael Stoute and Tom Dascombe and without question both had an awful 2023. Stoute (18%) used to score 100-plus winners in a year at 23%, last year he recorded his lowest ever winning total of 29-190 for 15%. Dascombe tried to dine at the top table but failed, last year saw 10-164 for 6%. It is clear, Kingscote needs to go elsewhere for winners, he is a far better jockey than 72 for 11%!

His last UK winner was in November 2023 and internationally he has gone 102 days and 47 rides since a winner. Now we are in March the facts show he has not ridden a UK winner since November 2023 and a state of affair that must end this month.

Now, as a 37-year old we appreciate he is trying to make contacts abroad and join the Arabian gravy train. His ventures abroad has had its moments notably when he was beaten a head into second place (24 February) on Enemy for trainer Ian Williams (9%). The race was won by Aidan O'Brien and Ryan Moore with Tower Of London. The winner received £1,181,102.36 whilst Richard Kingscote had a share of £393,700.39. Anyway, the 2022 Derby winner is back to work tomorrow and has 2 rides including TROJAN STORM 4.55 & MACANUDO 6.30 both for trainer Ian Williams (9%). Their all-time combination shows a healthy 53-325 for 16% (+8.92). Kingscote is on the cold list but must be filtered and followed from here!

By the way we were moved by the jockey's words after the death of Derby winner Desert Crown when he said: "I will always be grateful to him for looking after me. He was a gentleman and an awesome racehorse. I feel blessed and somewhat embarrassed that it was me that got to feel his brilliance." Humble words, we like that...

RED FLAG 2: One thing we personally do and would advise our members after a template has been produced is to add/delete to a tracker file any information that should be kept current, this Richard Kingscote detail is a typical example. It is well worth the time. One entry flagged up in our file shows Hollie Doyle's numbers since her return from Japan in December, she has ridden 21 winners from 185 rides for 11%, this compares to her national average of 15% so -4%. This is a negative figure compounded by the fact she has ridden 25 second places and 28 third places which is too many measured against her wins, thus heavily suggesting she is not firing on all cylinders! We never use the words due or luck but we do use upturn, and we use the word upturn now!

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