The Racing Horse offers our Newcastle Racecourse Template for Monday 25 March 2024. There is a 9-race card containing 8 Handicaps and a Maiden Fillies' Race. The Tapeta going is expected to be standard.

On this card there are 6 lowly Class 6 Handicaps which will test the rationality and validity of our pertinence board, but a challenge we will accept. The beauty of our template is they primarily recognise facts and mathematics and a visionary platform to build from:

RACECOURSE TEMPLATES EXPLAINED!

Newcastle FAVOURITES (5 years)
Non-handicap                   Handicap
2yo    62-161	39%   -35.47    27-91	  30%	  -7.75
3yo   104-211	49%   -12.09   100-350	  29%	 -77.29
4yo+   34-101	34%   -23.31   264-949	  28%	-160.58
TOTAL 200-473	42%   -70.87   391-1390	  28%	-245.61

TOP 5 TRAINERS for past 5 years                 +/-   E
Richard Fahey (11%) 71-629    11%   -132.57     +0%   1
Roger Varian (20%)  44-170    26%     +5.64     +6%   0
David O'Meara (12%) 44-359    12%    -19.90     +0%   1
K R Burke (14%)	    44-377    12%     -5.43     -2%   0
Jim Goldie (11%)    41-394    10%    -65.52     -1%   8

HOT TRAINERS 24/02/2024 to 24/03/2024           +/-   E
David Thompson (8%) 5-13    39%	    -2.00      +31%   2
Jedd O'Keeffe (9%)  4-11    36%	    +2.50      +27%   1
Dylan Cunha (13%)   4-12    33%	   +14.00      +20%   2

COLD TRAINER       SAW                                E
Brian Ellison (9%)  26   43 days                      2

TOP 5 JOCKEYS for past 5 years                  +/-   R
Paul Mulrennan (13%) 90-666   14%    -76.19     +2%   4
Jason Hart (12%)     75-574   13%    +46.84     +1%   4
Ben Curtis (16%)     59-331   18%    +14.73     +2%   0
P J McDonald (11%)   57-429   13%    -21.86     +1%   0
Daniel Tudhope (16%) 52-266   20%    -12.06     +3%   2 

HOT JOCKEYS 24/02/2024 to 24/03/2024            +/-   R
Sean Kirrane (12%)    7-25    28%   +27.50     +16%   3
Paul Mulrennan (13%) 11-46    24%   +12.45     +11%   4
Daniel Tudhope (16%)  9-48    19%    -3.00      +3%   2 

COLD JOCKEY    SAW                                    R
Cam Hardie (5%)	50    21 days                         4

TOP 5 OWNERS for past 5 years                   +/-   E
Godolphin (25%)	       29-97	30%   -12.05    +5%   0
J & T Jarvis (10%)     14-113	12%   -22.62    +2%   1
A Brittain (7%)        14-192	 7%   -82.62    +0%   3
King Power (13%)       13-77	17%   -18.73    +4%   1
Obaid Al Maktoum (20%) 11-33	33%    +8.76   +13%   0

Fixtures
Friday 29 March 2024	
Monday 8 April 2024		
Tuesday 16 April 2024

Forthcoming Racecourse Templates
KEMPTON AW (Wednesday 27 March 2024)

FAVOURITES: There is a big sample size for this template and winning favourites over the past 5 years show 591-1863 for 31.72% (-316.48). The strike rate is below the national average and clearly not a good course for winning favourites. Winning favourites in non-handicaps show 200-473 for 42% (-70.87) whilst winning favourites in handicaps score 391-1863 for 28% and a 14% differential.

Best category is 3yo winning favourites in non-handicaps showing 104-211 for 49% (-12.09), whilst the worst category are 4yo+ in handicaps scoring 264-949 for 28%, and a differential of 21% and -148.49

TRAINERS: There are 11 trainers making the journey of 236 miles to 284 miles for this journey. Richard Fahey (11%) makes a journey of 79 miles and is top trainer at the course based on volume and not quality. He has just the one runner this time and last time out winner ABSOLUTE DREAM 8.00 has a real chance to follow up that win, especially given the jockey booking of Eireann Cagney who rides the AW courses particularly well.

Jim Goldie (11%) scores 11% at the course so matching his national average, he is busy tomorrow with 8 runners including  SPANISH HUSTLE & BOBBY SHAFTOE 4.30, SOOWAIH 5.30, ANA EMARAATY 6.30, WATER OF LEITH 7.00, SOUND OF IONA & DOON THE GLEN 7.30 and GLOBAL HUMOR 8.30.

JOCKEYS: Paul Mulrennan (13%), Jason Hart (12%) & Danny Tudhope (16%) have 10 rides between them and this trio looks a source for winners and a good angle into the meeting.

At the other end of the food chain, we note Cam Hardie (5%) is on another losing run. He is currently 0-50 and has 4 rides today for 4 different trainers on horses priced 12/1 to 66/1.

OWNERS: The top owners at the course are often a good source of winners and it is always worth processing them. On this occasion 3 of our top 5 owners have an interest tomorrow. John & Tony Jarvis and Partner (10%) have a runner in SPARTAN FIGHTER 7.00, who is a C&D winner and a last time out winner trained by Antony Britain and to be ridden by Harry Russell. 

As an owner (not a trainer) Antony Brittain (7%) has 3 runners including HAILEY YA MAL 6.30, TATHMEEN 8.00 & MUTABAAHY 8.30, cannot see an obvious winner from this trio but King Power (13%) have a runner in UMBERTO 5.30 trained by K P De Foy and has a place chance at least.

RED FLAG: There are trainers who excel in the acquisition and preparation of 2yo juveniles and there are trainers who do not. The differences in trainer skill-sets with this age group are huge! There is no intention to patronise but TRH has a diverse bettor membership and will periodically return to this area! On this occasion, we look specifically at the 6.00 Maiden Fillies' Stakes and the 6 trainers competing. In context of this race we specifically look at their historic success or otherwise of 2yos on the AW surfaces for last year (2023) and the last 5 years. Largely based on 2023 figures they are ranked from best to worst:

ALICE HAYNES (12%)
2023:     7-61  for 11% (-6.17)     KUWAITYA
5 years: 20-139 for 14% (+8.15)
DOMINIC FFRENCH DAVIS (9%) 
2023: 4-19 for 21% (+14.50)         LADY DORCHESTER 
5 years: 6-46 for 13% (+10.50)
CRAIG LIDSTER (9%)
2023:    5-51 for 10% (+15.00)      LUCENT
5 years: 6-69 for  9%  (+3.00)
NIGEL TINKLER (9%)
2023:    2-18 for 11%  (-9.13)      GO ON ROSIE
5 years: 5-66 for  8% (-39.75)
KATIE SCOTT (8%)
2023:    0-4  for 0%  (-4.00)       STARSPANGLEDSOX
5 years: 0-15 for 0% (-15.00)
BRIAN ELLISON (9%) 
2023:    0-22 for 0% (-22.00)       BUTTERFLY JASMINE
5 years: 4-79 for 5% (-27.63)

The interpretation of the above figures might vary from member to member, but the figures are advising us of the following. These are AW figures:

• Katie Scott (8%) has NOT trained an AW 2yo winner over the past 5 years.
• Brian Ellison (9%( did NOT train an AW 2yo winner in 2023 and only 4 winners (79 runners) in the last 5 years.
• Nigel Tinkler (9%) trained 2 winners last year from 18 runners for 11% so at least a figure above his national average.
• Craig Lidster (9%) figures are from 2021 only and recorded best figures last year with 5 winners for 10% and above his national average.
• Dominic Ffrench Davis (9%) has just recorded an easy LINCOLN winner suggesting his horses are well. With 4-19 for 21% in 2023 he has the BIGGEST strike rate of the 6 trainers, and at 13% with his AW 2yo winners scores +4% above his national average.
• Alice Haynes (12%) has easily the HIGHEST NATIONAL AVERAGE of the 6 trainers and significantly so, and the MOST 2yo AW winners in 2023.

CONCLUSION on Saturday night. LADY DORCEHSTER (D F-Davis): Foaled  22 March and a 42,000gns Dark Angel filly. Dam 2yo 5f winner and wears a tongue strap for debut. We know the yard hit the ground running last spring so a contender. KUWAITYA (A Haynes): Foaled 6 February 29,000gns Soldier's Call filly. Sister to 2yo 6f winner Muqtahem. Dam 7f winner out of useful winner up to 7f (including at 2yo) Royal Confidence. Stable excellent with 2yos anytime but especially early types!