The Racing Horse offers our NEWBURY RACECOURSE TEMPLATE for Friday 19 April 2024. There is a 7-race card containing 3 Handicaps, a Novice and 3 Maiden Races. The going is expected to be soft, good to soft in places.

Newbury FAVOURITES (5 years)
Non-handicap                   Handicap
2yo    61-170	36%   -29.08   6-20	30%    -3.65
3yo    33-98	34%   -23.76   49-140   35%    +0.00
4yo+   18-43	42%    +0.70   31-151   21%   -51.61
TOTAL 112-311	36%   -52.14   86-311	28%   -55.26

TOP 5 TRAINERS at NEWBURY past 5 years       +/-   E 
Richard Hannon (11%) 39-360   11%   -94.54   +0%  10
William Haggas (22%) 35-160   22%   -21.15   +0%   3
Andrew Balding (15%) 23-209   11%   +38.43   -4%   5
Ed Walker (14%)	     20-138   14%   -30.52   +0%   1
J & T Gosden (21%)   19-104   18%   -29.60   -3%   2

HOT TRAINERS 20/03/2024 to 18/04/2024        +/-   E
Harry Charlton (28%)  4-8    50%    +1.50   +22%   2
Ollie Sangster (18%)  2-4    50%    +3.41   +32%   1
Richard Hughes (14%) 16-39   41%    +8.00   +27%   2
Harry Fry (19%)	      5-14   36%    -0.09   +17%   1
Richard Spencer (11%) 5-15   33%    -2.00   +22%   1
Ed Walker (14%)	      6-21   29%   +28.82   +15%   1
Eve J-Houghton (12%)  5-18   28%    +5.50   +16%   2
William Haggas (22%)  3-12   25%    +2.00    +3%   3

COLD TRAINERS       SAW                            E
Charlie Hills (15%)  28  117 days                  2
Karl Burke (14%)     20   10 days                  2   
Roger Varian (20%)   14   15 days                  3

TOP 5 JOCKEYS at NEWBURY past 5 years        +/-   R
Tom Marquand (15%)  38-219   17%   -19.49    +2%   5
Oisin Murphy (19%)  29-161   18%    +7.25    -1%   6
James Doyle (19%)   27-146   18%   -14.57    -1%   3
William Buick (23%) 27-152   18%   -13.07    -5%   3
Jim Crowley (19%)   26-141   18%   +29.32    -1%   1

HOT JOCKEYS 20/03/2024 to 18/04/2024         +/-   R
Finley Marsh (14%)  11-26   42%	   +24.32   +28%   1
William Buick (23%)  7-30   23%	    -8.50    +0%   3
David Probert (12%) 13-64   20%	    -3.50    +8%   5
Oisin Murphy (19%(  13-65   20%	    -4.00    +1%   6
Saffie Osborne (12%) 9-47   19%	    +21.0    +7%   3

COLD JOCKEYS            SAW                        R
Luke Morris (9%)         63   27 days              3
Richard Kingscote (13%)  44   36 days              4

TOP 5 OWNERS at Newbury for past 5 years     +/-   E
Godolphin (25%)	     21-105   20%   -16.65   -5%   3
Shadwell Est (24%)   13-74    18%    +5.23   -6%   1
Amo Racing (17%)      9-48    19%   -14.62   +2%   2
Ahmed A Maktoum (24%) 8-40    20%    +3.83   -4%   1
Juddmonte (23%)	      8-51    16%   -16.29   -7%   0

Fixtures
Friday 19 April 2024
Saturday 20 April 2024

CONFIGURATION: Left handed, galloping. The straight mile course is undulating throughout. One of the fairest courses in the country, though its galloping nature makes it ideal for the big, long-striding type, and the track becomes testing in inclement weather. Whilst the majority of the action on the straight course usually takes place on the stand rail, those who choose to come down the centre of the track instead can find themselves at an advantage.

FAVOURITES: Newbury Flat Racecourse provides as many non-handicap races to handicap races and this is very unusual. Over the past 5 years winning favourites at the course show 198-622 for 31.83% for a level stake loss of -107.46 so a strike rate below the national average. This is clearly not a great course for favourites! This negative is in contradiction to the quality of the race track and quality of races generally held there, but these are the organic facts and cold mathematics!

Winning favourites in non-handicaps show 112-311 for 36% and a level stake loss to SP of -52.14, whilst winning favourites in handicaps score 86-311 for 28% and a loss to level stakes of -55.26.

TRAINERS: Based on volume Richard Hannon (11%) is top trainer at the course, as we go to post he has 10 entries including HAWAIIAN 1.42, GISBURN & BOSH 2.12, ARDARA ROSE & SEAMORE 2.42, SAM HAWKENS & VOYAGE 3.12, CHRISTIAN DAVID & CIRCE 4.15 and STAR STYLE 4.50. From these runners we note Hannon doubles-up in 4 races.

There are 3 top trainers on the cold list with an aggregate loss of 0-62, they include Charlie Hills, Karl Burke & Roger Varian. Will they score 0-69 at 5pm tomorrow?

JOCKEYS: The UK best jockeys are in attendance at this meeting. Oisin Murphy (19%) has 6 rides, Tom Marquand (15%) & David Probert (12%) both have 5 rides, whilst William Buick (23%) & James Doyle (19%) both have 3 rides. It is reasonable to expect multiple winners from this quintet. Jim Crowley (19%) has just the 1 ride.

OWNERS: Top owners at a course are a regular source of winners and this particular template category needs a second look as there appears to be winners in waiting. Godolphin (25%) have 3 runners including MAGIC DREAM 2.42, ROLAND GARROS & ARABIAN TRIBE 3.12.

Shadwell Estate (24%) have a single runner in TARQEEZ 4.50.

Amo Racing (17%) have 2 runners including MR HAMPSTEAD 3.12 & PRINCE ALEX 3.45.

Sheikh Ahmed Al Maktoum (24%) has a single runner in TERAABB 4.15.

RED FLAG: The first race on the card at Newbury is a Maiden for 2yos open to colts, geldings and fillies and there are 8 trainers involved. The trainers have varying degrees of success with this age group on Turf and we have a cursory look at them. We record this age group showing strike rate and their level stake profit and losses to a £1 stake. Ollie Sangster 18% (-13.39), Clive Cox 17% (+159.61), Andrew Balding 16% (+54.73), Eve Johnson-Houghton 16% (-14.23), Dominic Ffrench-Davis 15% (-36.37), Richard Hannon 12% (-218.09), Brian Meehan (9%) (-46.17), Richard Hughes 9% (-103.81). Are these numbers a surprise to members and do they contain value? Maybe, maybe not, we need contextual information!

With this in mind we repeat the exercise but this time look at their Newbury 2yo results over the past 5-years:

Ollie Sangster:         1-1    100%      +4.50
Andrew Balding:        13-77    17%    +115.98
Dominic Ffrench-Davis:  1-7     14%      -2.67
Richard Hannon:        25-187   13%     -42.46
Clive Cox:              8-61    13%      -4.25
Richard Hughes:         3-36     8%     -15.00
Brian Meehan:           2-27     7%     -10.67
Eve Johnson-Houghton:   1-41     2%     -26.00

Is it a coincidence that Richard Hughes, Brian Meehan and Eve Johnson-Houghton supply the three longest price horses in the race re 12/1. 18/1 & 33/1 respectively? Richard Hannon has scored 25 winners at the course over the past 5-years and has the 9/4 favourite. Could Tropical Storm for Andrew Balding at 8/1 be the perceived value bet in the race given both sets of numbers? With just 8 runners is this an excellent each-way bet?

TRH has nibbled at 10.00 & 10.50 on the exchange on Tropical Storm and will employ a stake saver on the Hannon horse at 4.00 to 4.30. Our collective figures at Newbury for these 2 trainers show 38-264 for 14.39% (+73.52). The other 6 trainers combined have scored 16 winners at the course which means our nominated pairing score 70.37% of those 54 winners. Bookmakers will be aware of this heavy bias and this is the contextual information we were referring to.