CHEPSTOW WINNERS (Saturday 11 October 2025)
October 10th, 2025
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LINGFIELD AW Racecourse Template (Saturday 14 September 204)
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The Racing Horse offers our Lingfield AW Racecourse Template for Saturday 14 September 2024. There is an 8-race card containing 6 Handicaps, and 2 Novice Stakes Races. The Polytrack surface is expected to ride as standard.
WINNING FAVOURITES (5 years) Non-handicap Handicap 2yo 70-153 46% -0.63 19-51 37% -2.09 3yo 120-248 48% -5.53 154-486 32% -80.76 4yo+ 75-146 51% +25.15 279-931 30% -137.70 TOTAL 265-547 48% +18.99 452-1468 31% -220.55 TOP 5 TRAINERS at LINGFIELD for past 5 years +/- R Andrew Balding (15%) 57-253 23% +70.33 +8% 3 Tony Carroll (9%) 52-476 11% -77.81 +2% 0 Archie Watson (14%) 47-264 18% -37.09 +4% 0 Richard Hannon (11%) 45-385 12% -90.40 +1% 0 Roger Varian (20%) 40-152 26% -3.60 +6% 0 TOP 5 JOCKEYS at LINGFIELD for past 5 years +/- R David Probert (12%) 88-571 15% +108.55 +3% 8 Hollie Doyle (15%) 73-476 15% -103.15 +0% 0 Luke Morris (9%) 73-714 10% -84.66 +1% 7 Jack Mitchell (17%) 59-326 18% -40.65 +1% 0 Rossa Ryan (16%) 57-365 16% -46.06 +0% 0 TOP 5 OWNERS at LINGFIELD for past 5 years +/- E Godolphin (25%) 40-137 29% -4.99 +4% 1 King Power (13%) 16-75 21% -24.17 +8% 0 Power Geneva (15%) 13-66 20% +29.23 +5% 0 Robert Moss (11%) 13-104 13% +68.44 +2% 2 Shadwell Est (24%) 12-42 29% -5.18 +5% 0
SURFACE: Lingfield AW Racecourse uses Polytrack, the most popular choice of surfaces for AW tracks in the UK. Trainers prefer this surface over everything else because it is the fairest surface for horses to race on. This fast surface has little jar with virtually no kickback, meaning horses can enjoy their racing, and because it quickly regains its shape after racing there is less stress on tendons.
CONFIGURATION: Lingfield’s left-handed all-weather track is laid out inside the turf track and, measuring just less than a mile and a quarter round, is essentially sharp in nature. This, along with how the races often pan out ensures that stamina is rarely at a premium and strong-travelling types with a turn of foot are often favoured. For nearly half its length, the round course is flat, then rising to the summit of a slight hill after which there is a downhill turn to the straight.
FAVOURITES: Winning favourites at Lingfield over the past 5 years show 717-2015 for 35.58% (-201.56) so nearly +3% above the national average. Our sample size is big so in a relative sense it is trusted. The standout figure is winning favourites in non-handicaps scoring 265-547 for 48.45% (+18.99) and our first stop shop for any meeting at Lingfield AW. Winning favourites in handicaps score 452-1468 for around 31% (-220.55).
TRAINERS: Top trainer at the track Andrew Balding (15%) scores at 23% (+£78.33 to a £1 stake at SP over the past 5 years) so a massive +8% above his national average. He has 3 runners at the course on Saturday including SPIRIT CHARMER 1.25, MARCHOGION 2.00 & EQUITY LAW 2.35.
JOCKEYS: David Probert (15%) understands and rides Lingfield well scoring at +3% above his national average (+£108.55 to a £1 stake over the past 5 years). We paste his thoughts on how best to ride this course at the end of this template - it is well worth a read. He is in fabulous form currently scoring 10-37 for 27% over the past 14 days. He has a full book of 8 rides and will surely score from SHIP TO SHORE 12.55, SPRINT CHARMER 1.25, MARCHOGION 2.00, EQUITY LAW 2.35, TWILIGHT DANCER 3.10, MELISENDE 3.50, CAPRELO 4.23 & SPOOK 4.58. Stop a winner?
Danny Muscutt (13%) is another jockey with a full book of 8 rides including WANNABE BRAVE 12.55, ARTIFICER 1.25, SHABU SHABU 2.00, ALMATY STAR 2.35, DEEP BLUE 3.10, KATIE G 3.50, SALIK 4.23 & RED TREASURE 4.58
Luke Morris (9%) has 7 rides including SOLID SILVER 12.55, BAROQUE PEARL 1.25, KING'S HAND 2.00, INVINCIBLE SPEED 2.35, SILVER NIGHTFALL 3.10, ORBITAL 4.23 & UZINCSO 4.58
OWNERS: Godolphin (25%) are easily top owners at the course and score +4% above their national average here. They have an interesting runner in the unraced 2yo Too Darn Hot colt TORNADO ALERT 2.00 trained by Saeed bin Suroor and ridden by Dylan Hogan. The trainer is 2-7 for 29% with his 2yos this year but of his 5 losers 3 have finished in second place, and we know he can ready one. In the UK this year he shows 12-48 for 25% with 9 second places, so 21-48 for 44% finish first or second. The suggestion even before we see the opening show, is this colt will be competitive despite the ordinary jockey booking. If we can nick a bit of 6/1 each way we will stake, whilst accepting Marchogian for Andrew Balding looks a worthy favourite with a RPR of 89 to beat.
Owner Robert Moss (11%) sits fourth in the leading owners table and has 2 runners including MCLOVEN 2.35 & TRONIDO 3.10 both trained by Simon Dow and ridden by Paddy Bradley.
RED FLAG: James Tate (16%) might be a trainer to keep tabs on over the coming couple of weeks or so given his fantastic form, with the last 14 days showing 111626315221 so 5-12 for 42%. The SPs of the winners have been 1/2, 14/1, 11/2, 11/4 & 10/1. Contained within those figures are 3 second places 8-12 for 67% have finished in the first two. This year the trainer shows 22-117 for 19% (+32.36) which is +3% above his national average and his highest yearly strike rate in the last 5 years. He has 2 runners tomorrow including CHUKOTKA 2.00 & INVINCIBLE SPEED 2.35 to be ridden by Neil Callan and Luke Morris respectively.
PERTINENCE & PERTAINING12.55
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| It's probably the most idiosyncratic of the AW tracks because of the hill. It's pretty level from the mile and a quarter start and down the back, but from the 4 furlong to the 2 furlong poles you're running down that hill. Some horses don't handle the hill which makes it a tricky track to ride; many of the jockeys will start to make their move at about the three - halfway down the hill, on the home bend - trying to get some of their rivals off balance. That's where you'll see most of the manoeuvres, jostling for position, trying to either get an inside run or slingshot off the bend if a little wider.
In 5f & 6f handicaps, you want to be handy, and perhaps ideally with a middle draw to cut the corner a little. That gives you the most options. They're both tricky starts, the five in a little chute on the crown of the bend, and the six just before the bend on the main track. Inside draws need to be very quick away and edge right a bit to get a position, because if you don't you'll be in a pocket and it'll be hard. The 6f trip is a bit more forgiving because you've got half a furlong or so before the bend, but you still need to jump and get a position quickly. But over longer trips, certainly beyond a mile, it's very hard to make the running and win. I try and sit third or fourth, and one off the rail. If you're on the rail you can get boxed in as horses vie for positions and then you have to wait for them to pass before making your run. It's certainly a tricky track and one where you need to be in the right place at the right time. Lane wise, it's pretty fair in the straight: I've seen horses coming up the rail to win, and horses fanning wide and winning, so there doesn't seem to be any advantage to one or other path in the last quarter. And the kickback is mild, probably the least of all the all weather circuits - David Probert |
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