The Racing Horse offers our Kempton AW Racecourse Template for Monday 16 September 2024. There is an 8-race card containing 5 Handicap Races and 3 Novice Stakes Races. The Polytrack surface is expected to ride standard to slow.

Winning Favourites (5 Years)
Non-handicap                   Handicap
2yo   113-293	39%   -49.12   40-110	 36%    +0.19
3yo   147-295	50%    -8.39   154-476	 32%   -42.47
4yo+   46-107	43%    -4.71   250-790	 32%   -74.57
TOTAL 306-695	44%   -62.22   444-1376  32%  -116.85

Winning Favourites (Current Year)
Non-handicap                    Handicap
2yo	 9-28	32%    -1.26	2-6	 33%	-3.02
3yo	31-61	51%    +0.57    29-72	 40%	+7.46
4yo+	 5-13	38%    -0.82	51-138	 37%	+1.89
TOTAL	45-102  44%    -1.51	82-216	 38%	+6.33

TOP 5 TRAINERS at KEMPTON past 5 years        +/-   E
Andrew Balding (15%)  88-538   16%    -6.68   +1%   2
Charlie Appleby (29%) 71-210   34%   -36.04   +5%   1
Roger Varian (20%)    63-267   24%   -34.32   +4%   0
Richard Hannon (11%)  50-464   11%  -119.75   +0%   3
J & T Gosden (21%)    47-249   19%   -68.92   -1%   3

TOP 5 TRAINERS at KEMPTON 2024                +/-   E
Andrew Balding (15%)  18-101  18%    -5.06    +3%   2
Richard Hughes (14%)  12-42   29%   +11.69   +15%   1
Charlie Appleby (29%) 11-25   44%    +0.19   +17%   1
William Haggas (22%)   9-35   26%    +2.39    +4%   1
E J-Houghton (12%)     8-39   21%    -6.55    +9%   2

TOP 5 JOCKEYS at KEMPTON past 5 years         +/-   R
Oisin Murphy (19%)   93-480   19%    -86.04   +0%   0
David Probert (12%)  93-761   12%    -38.28   +0%   7
Daniel Muscutt (13%) 82-610   13%   -114.54   +0%   0
Hollie Doyle (15%)   77-560   14%   -128.09   -1%   0
William Buick (23%)  76-325   23%    -76.37   +0%   0
  
TOP 5 JOCKEYS at KEMPTON 2024                 +/-   R
Oisin Murphy (19%)    22-116  19%   -42.82    +0%   0 
Tom Marquand (15%)    19-83   23%   +14.90    +7%   5
Billy Loughnane (14%) 15-84   18%   +36.91    +4%   6
Rossa Ryan (16%)      14-92   15%   -31.94    -1%   4
Daniel Muscutt (13%)  13-91   14%   -10.41    +1%   0

TOP 5 OWNERS at Kempton past 5 years          +/-   E
Godolphin (25%)	    100-359   28%   -78.71    +3%   1
King Power (13%)     25-131   19%   -28.31    +6%   0
Shadwell Est (23%)   20-74    27%    +4.88    +4%   2
Juddmonte (23%)      19-66    29%    -1.01    +6%   2
Opulence Thoro (18%) 16-57    28%    +4.85   +10%   1

Upcoming Fixtures:			
Friday 20 September 2024		
Wednesday 25 September 2024		
Wednesday 2 October 2024		
Wednesday 9 October 2024 

Forthcoming Racecourse Templates:
Yarmouth (Wednesday 18 September 2024)
Kempton AW (Friday 20 September 2024)
Ayr (Saturday 21 September 2024)

CONFIGURATION: Kempton is a right-handed, Polytrack, flat, oval-shaped course with two loops. The inner circuit, used for races over five and ten furlongs is sharp and has a finishing straight of just under two furlongs, favouring the speedy, handy type, markedly so over the minimum trip. The turn on the outer course is more sweeping and the straight is approximately three furlongs long, making for a fairer test. Over both five and six furlongs, there is a relatively short run to the first bend.

FAVOURITES: Kempton Racecourse Template provides a huge sample giving the figures real weight and substance! Winning favourites at the course over the past 5-years show 750-2071 for 36.12% and a level stake loss of -179.07, so +3% of the national average. Non-handicap winning favourites score at 44% as opposed to handicap favourites who score at 32% for a significant 12% differential.

• Best category are 3yo favs in non-handicaps 147-295 for 50% (-8.39)
• Worst category are 4yo favs in handicaps 250-790 for 32% (-74.57)
• Best versus the worst category shows a significant differential of 18%.
• Winning 3yo favourites in non-handicap score at a big 50% and a micro-system with just a modicum of filtration. The strike rate of 50% over the past 5 years is being replicated again this current year, so a constant and something to work from!
• First and second in the market at Kempton win at 52.99%.

TRAINERS: Every horse Charlie Appleby (29%) runs at Kempton must be carefully processed. TRH backs the majority of his runners at this course, staking between 1 to 3 pts win or each way. We are on WILD ANGEL 5.30 at 2/1 and James Doyle comes to Kempton for just this ride. Stall 9 of 12 is not helpful. This current year the trainer is 11-25 for 44% at Kempton, and 25-78 for 32% with his UK 2yos. The last 5 years at Kempton he scores 71-210 for 34% so +5% above his national average of 29%.

Conversely, we have managed (through a third party) to back Kathleen's Glory at 9/2 best price guaranteed with Bet365 as a stake saver. She never landed a blow at Newmarket on debut, but looked green and will almost certainly do better for the experience. The race has thrown up two winners since, and the hood worn that day has been removed, she has stall 3 to help. She has a fancy entry at Newmarket on 5 October in a Class 2 £150,000 race, but over 6f so they must think she has speed.

Top trainer at Kempton is Andrew Balding (15%), he has 2 runners including DANCING SAPPHIRE 6.30 & CADOGAN PLACE 7.30 both to be ridden by David Probert.

J & T Gosden (21%) underperform at Kempton, in a relative sense, scoring at 19% and that continues to surprise us given the nature of the track. They have 3 runners tonight including KATHLEEN'S GLORY 5.30, FIREBLADE 7.30 & SHADER 7.30 and look almost certain to saddle a winner!

JOCKEYS: There are 4 jockeys from our leader boards who have 22 rides between them, it is reasonable to expect multiple winners from this quartet! James Doyle (19%) has just the one ride today and that looks significant!

David Probert (12%) is joint-top jockey at the course over the past 5 years with 93 winners. In total he has ridden 237 winners at Kempton. He has 7 rides today to claim top spot solo. His rides include SANGARA 5.30, RED MAIDS 6.00, DANCING SAPPHIRE 6.30, DYNAMIC TALENT 7.00, CADOGAN PLACE 7.30, RED FLYER 8.00 & SERAPHIC 8.30.

Billy Loughnane (14%) has 6 rides including DEAL MAKER 4.55, SWEET COUTURE 5.30, FOREVER A DIAMOND 6.00, MBAPPE 7.00, CLOCKWATCHER 8.00 & VOYEUR 8.30

Tom Marquand (15%) has 5 rides including CHADLEENY 5.30, MAHATO 6.30, APPEAL TO GLORY 7.00, HOWTH 8.00 & BUDDING 8.30

Rossa Ryan (16%) has 4 rides including CROCODILE RIVER 4.55, BEAR FACTS 5.30, ERNIE'S VALENTINE 7.00 & TEORIE 8.00

OWNERS: Godolphin (25%) has one runner in WILD ANGEL trained by Charlie Appleby and ridden by James Doyle.

Shadwell Estate (23%) have 2 runners including MOTABAAH (Richard Hannon) 5.30 & AL HAAL (Owen Burrows) 7.30, hard to see either of those winning.

Juddmonte (23%) also have 2 runners in the same race and look a good bet to win it from either CADOGAN PLACE (Andrew Balding/David Probert) & SHADER (J & T Gosden/Kieran Shoemark) 7.30.

Opulence Thoroughbreds(19%) run CHADLEENY 5.30 trained by Ed Walker and ridden by Tom Marquand.

RED FLAG: Charlie Appleby runs the 2yo Sea The Stars colt WATCHING STARS in the 3.20 Thirsk. If you can get on, Bet365 (09.15), offer 11/2 best price guaranteed! Apart from the trainer's fabulous form with his 2yos this year, he is 4-7 for 57% at Thirsk over the past 5 years. Yes, he has LOCAL LAD to beat (RPR of 99), but should that one not enjoy the trip over from Ireland, or not be fully wound up after a break of 114 days, then the Appleby horse could be perceived value each way in an 8-runner race. Hard to imagine this one making the 184-mile trip to finish fourth? Dougie Costello rides.

TRH cannot get money on this nomination with Bet365, but it would have been a ½pt each-way Pacafi had that been possible. Think we have the Ralph Beckett horse covered, so we will stake to win Watching Stars and stake-save Local Lad on the exchange.

Godolphin Comments: First foal; dam 7.5f-1m2f winner (inc German Group 3, dual 1m Group 1 second; RPR 112), out of unraced half-sister to Prix Du Jockey Club winner Anaaba Blue; looked in need of the run when fourth of twelve at Newmarket (7f) in August 2024 and got outpaced over 1m at Goodwood the following month.