The Racing Horse offers our WOLVERHAMPTON AW RACECOURSE TEMPLATE for Saturday 14 December 2024. There is a 9-race card containing 7 Handicaps a Novice Stakes and a Maiden Fillies' Stake Race. The going for the Tapeta Surface is expected to be standard.

Winning favourites (last 5 seasons)
Non-handicaps                     Handicaps
2yo   114   270	  42%	-39.95	  45     131   34%    +9.39
3yo   167   343	  49%	-16.15	  263    780   34%   -59.50
4yo+   78   173	  45%	+12.50	  428   1396   31%  -155.88
TOTAL 359   786	  46%	-43.61	  736   2307   32%  -205.98

Top 5 Trainers last 5 seasons                      +/-    E
Tony Carroll (10%)	86-975	  9%	-217.14    -1%    3
Mark Loughnane (9%)	73-684	 11%	 -99.64    +2%    1
Michael Appleby (11%)	70-605	 12%	  -3.07    +1%    3
David Evans (11%)	61-553	 11%	-124.04    +0%    3
George Boughey (17%)	59-369	 16%	 -26.97    -1%    2

Top 5 Jockeys last 5 seasons                       +/-    R
Rossa Ryan (16%)     124-599	 21%	 +84.87    +5%    0
Luke Morris (9%)     119-1021	 12%	-222.37    +3%    7
Hollie Doyle (14%)     90-593	 15%	-170.24    +1%    0
David Probert (12%)    85-720	 12%	-114.61    +0%    6
Jack Mitchell (16%)    79-453	 17%	 -79.73    +1%    0

Top 5 Owners last 5 seasons                        +/-    E
Godolphin (25%)	        57-186	 31%	 -21.31    +6%    0
Saeed Manana (16%)	24-110	 22%	 +12.43    +6%    0
Ahmed A Maktoum (23%)	22-58	 38%	  +7.48   +15%    0
Power Geneva Ltd (14%)	19-122	 16%	 -14.22    +2%    0
Amo Racing (15%)	15-95	 16%	 -17.17    +1%    0

Upcoming fixtures
Saturday 14 December 2024		
Monday 16 December 2024		
Friday 20 December 2024	
Saturday 21 December 2024	
Thursday 26 December 2024				

CONFIGURATION: The all-weather course at Wolverhampton forms a flat, left-handed oval circuit of just under a mile in length. The bends are fairly sharp and with a straight of under 2f in length it favours horses with the ability to hold a good position as opposed to those who need time to find full stride.

JASON WEAVER: Wolverhampton’s 5f, 7f and extended 1m starts can be tricky from a jockey’s point of view, because they’re very much draw-dependent. It’s a big advantage being among the low, left-hand numbers. The 1m 4f start can also be a slight problem, but at least from there you’ve got a longer trip to get sorted out. Nobody went round the inside in the early days and, while I’m not sure it’s a disadvantage to be there now, most jocks still shy away from that rail. It’s a tight course, but well laid-out and very fair.

WINNING FAVOURITES:  Despite the poor quality of racing at Wolverhampton, winning favourites generally have high strike rates, particularly in non-handicap, low-tier races. The wisdom of the crowd is clearly in play and working at this racecourse, and it certainly pays to wager late here or even better just before the off. It's important to note that the 5f, 7f, and extended 1m starts can be challenging for jockeys, and the 1m4f start may also present difficulties. Nevertheless, the high strike rate persists despite these adverse draw conditions. The substantial sample size at this course lends much credibility to the data, with absolutely no signs of fatigue!

• Over the past 5 years, winning favourites show 1095-3093 for 35.40% so nearly 3% above the national average, though a level stake loss to SP of -£249.59 to a £1 win stake.
• Winning favourites in non-handicaps score at 46%
• Winning favourites in handicaps score at 32%
• Best category are 3yo winning favourites in non-handicaps 167-343 for 49% (-16.15)
• Worst category are 4yo+ winning favourites in handicaps 428-1396 for 31% (-155.88)
• Differential between best and worst category is a huge 18%
• Top trainer at the course is Tony Carroll (10%) but based on volume, not on quality
• Top jockey at the course is Rossa Ryan (16%) Note: For 2024 so far he shows 36-154 for 23% (+38.04) so +7% above his national average, suggesting each of his rides must be filtered.
• Godolphin (25%) are the leading owners at the course scoring at 31% so +6% above their national average.

TRAINERS: The top 5 trainers at the course all have runners and the advice is to process each of their runners. From their aggregate of 12 runners we can expect 2 winners and a number of placings. WINNER at 10/1 & 4 places at 7/4, 22/1, 50/1 & 17/2

JOCKEYS; Rossa Ryan (16%) is top jockey at the course but does not ride here Saturday. That said, the advice is to acknowledge his numbers. There are two jockeys of interest.

Luke Morris (9%) was just 1-40 until a winner yesterday and he has 7 rides at bigger prices and is likely to go close from EVER HOPEFULL 4.30, PRINCESS PW 5.00, CAIRN GORM 6.00, SIR JOSEPH SWAN 7.00, UNDER FOX 7.30, BIG NARSTIE 8.00 & RECON MISSION 8.30. Given the type and profile of his rides he might offer place opportunities at decent prices and something we are considering! 164-1 win double & 5 places at 14/1, 7/2, 10/1, 50/1 & 17/2

David Probert (12%) has a similar batch of rides to Morris and has 6 rides including LIA ROSE 4.30, SPIRIT OF JURA 5.00, JUST LIKE MAGIC 5.30, LADY DREAMER 6.00, ZIVANIYA 7.00 & BLOODHOUND 8.00. So whilst we cannot see an obvious winner he is likely to place with one or two. 2 places at 4/1 & 20/1

OWNERS: None of the top 5 owners have a runner for this meeting

Firstly, apologies for the delayed decision to create a Racecourse Template for Wolverhampton for our colleagues at The WINNING ANGLE. We've noted that there are five meetings approaching rapidly from now until Boxing Day, and we wish to contribute some insights and ready-to-use material. The Racing Horse typically avoids betting on trainers with a national win average of 8%; our discipline prohibits it. However, we do consider place betting or head-to-head wagers when the value pricing is right. Take, for instance, Katie Scott, who has an 8% win rate and operates from Galashiels, Scottish Borders. Her record at Wolverhampton stands at 2 wins out of 85 races, slightly over 2%. Given that her stable is 252 miles away from the course, one might wonder why she undertakes the 500-mile round trip. She's not irrational; out of her non-winning races, 13 have finished second, 8 third, and another 13 fourth, meaning 36 out of 85, or 42.3%, have placed in the top four.

Tomorrow, the 4yo JUMEIRA VISION is scheduled to race at 7:30, and the horse is expected to return home in the early hours of Sunday morning. This gelding holds a special place for Katie, having secured a hat-trick of wins in the summer of 2024, a feat not achieved by any of her previous horses. Despite an unfavorable draw, running from stall 9 out of 11, the talented Kaiya Fraser, who claims a 3lb allowance, has been booked for the ride, marking his first engagement with this trainer. Currently, this pairing is listed at 16/1 odds with Bet365 and is anticipated to trade at much higher rates on Betfair, with considerations for a price that covers 4 places. Scott's stables are at capacity with 21 horses, and she has shared: "Having not held a license for very long, my confidence grows with experience, improving my ability to place the horses. We are fortunate to have wonderful owners who trust me to run the horses where they stand the best chance. While I have no desire to increase the number of horses, enhancing their quality would be beneficial." This is her only runner over the weekend. 16/1 into 13/2 unplaced

4.30: 1m1f104y Boost Your Acca at BetMGM Fillies' Handicap (Class 5) (3yo 0-75)

• Winning favourites NA
• MORE THAN A FEELIN (A Haynes) made it 3 wins from her last 4 starts on synthetics with bit to spare over shorter here 4 weeks ago, 2-2 at this course, exposed at this sort of trip, first time hood. Trainer scored 12/1 winner yesterday, Kieran O'Neill rides
• THEWIND CRIES MARY (E Bethell) 126 day break but longer trip to help if ready, Aidan Keeley rides
• EVER HOPEFULL (A Watson) formerly with W Haggas, trainer 11-26 at 42.31% for placed horses in last 30 days. Luke Morris rides WINNER 14/1

5.00: 1m142y Win £1M With BetMGM's Golden Goals 'Confined' Restricted Maiden Fillies' Stakes (Class 5) (2yo)

• Winning favourites 42%
• PAVE THE WAY (E Johnson-Houghton) shaped better than bare result having been bumped at crucial stage when 4th in Southwell maiden 6 weeks ago, retains potential, Charles Bishop rides
• SPIRIT OF JURA (C Johnston) Masar filly, showed benefit of debut experience when 2nd of 9 in C&D novice last month, keeping on, further progress anticipated so place chance at least. David Probert rides
• PRINCESS PW (G Kelleway) drops from Class 2 to Class 5, open to progress up in trip, Luke Morris rides 2nd 7/2

5.30: 5f21y  BetMGM: It's Showtime Novice 'Confined' Restricted Novice Stakes (Class 5) (2yo)

• Winning favourites 42%
• TROUBLE MAN (J Chapple-Hyam) went close to making a winning debut at Southwell, Marco Ghiani rides and 35% on favourites WINNER 13/8
• MISS FUNKY MONK (T Clover) beaten favourite last time out, shorter trip to suit. Kieran Shoemark rides 2nd 11/5
• SUNDIATA KEITA (R Fahey) beaten favourite last time out, stall 9 not helpful and James Sullivan rides but at just 6%
• Exacta £6.90 & CSF £5.12

6.00: 6f20y  Extra Winnings With BetUK Acca Club Handicap (Class 4) (3yo 0-78)

• Winning favourites NA
• CAIRN GORM (M Appleby) formerly with K P De Foy, drops from Class 2 to Class 4, on a potentially good mark starting out for a shrewd yard back from an absence. Luke Morris ride WINNER 10/1
• MAHATO (W Haggas) trainer 21% at the course, 21% with sprinters and 23% in winter, first time tongue strap. Cieren Fallon rides 2nd 15/8
• GIORGIO M (G Boughey) unreliable but course winner, 4th over C&D last two outings, well drawn, on a handy mark if getting away on terms, Grace McEntee rides
• Exacta £30.50 & CSF £29.30

6.30: 7f36y Gamble Responsibly At BetMGM Fillies' Handicap (Class 5) (3yo 0-68)

• Winning favourites NA
• LADY WINGALONG (D Evans) C&D winner, in great form seeking hat-trick, Jordan Williams (5) rides 2nd 7/4
• HAVANA FORCE (M Botti) trainer in great form. good length 4 of 11 to Lady Wingalong in handicap at this C&D 12 days ago, running on. 0-11 now but place chance, Marco Ghiani rides WINNER 3/1
• SHE'S CENTIMENTAL (M Appleby) out of sorts recently but is 2 from 4 at the course, George Buckell (3) rides 3rd 22/1
• Exacta £11.70 & CSF £8.65 Tricast £94 & Trifecta £133.40

7.00: 2m120y Weekly £5 Free Bet With BetUK Handicap (Class 5) (3yo 0-68)

• Winning favourites NA
• DANCE TIME (D Loughnane) C&D winner, beaten favourite last time out, Laura Pearson rides 3rd 15/2
• ALBERT LASKER (A Haynes) good 2nd of 8 in Southwell handicap 23 days ago. Nudged up just 1lb for that, unlikely to be far away. Kieran O'Neill rides
• SON OF RED (J Owen) formerly with H Fry, 874-days absence but remains of strong interest given low-mileage and progressive profile. Market will tell us more, Johnny Peate rides WINNER 12/1

7.30: 1m142y Weekly Free Bets With BetMGM Extra Handicap (Div I) (Class 6) (3yo+ 0-65)

• Winning favourites NA
• BOOK OF LIFE (I Williams) 0-14 since last win in 2022 but creditable 2nd of 11 in C&D handicap 21 days ago. Looks ready to strike and the one to beat, Cieren Fallon rides 2nd 2/1
• HAVANA TOUCH (J Butler) beaten favourite here last time out and ran poorly, first time hood, George Buckell rides (3)
• JUMEIRA VISION (K Scott) below par recently but now long traveller 243-miles, weighted to win 62 > 56. Kaiya Fraser (3) rides 16/1 into 13/2 unplaced

8.00: 1m142y Weekly Free Bets With BetMGM Extra Handicap (Div II) (Class 6) (3yo+ 0-65)

• Winning favourites NA
• RETRACTION (R Carr) ran well over C&D 3 weeks ago, finished close up from difficult draws on last two starts, James Sullivan rides 3rd 9/4
• JERSEY ROCS (C Hills) last time out winner with first time blinkers, trainer 21% in winter, Marco Ghiani rides WINNER 9/4
• BIG NARSTIE (M Appleby) course winner but bit to prove recently, weighted to win 67 > 55, Luke Morris rides 

8.30: 5f21y Gamble Responsibly At BetUK Handicap (Class 6) (3yo+ 0-65)

• Winning favourites NA
• AGOSTINO (R Cowell) beaten favourite last time out, outside stall to overcome but possible. Marco Ghiani rides
• NELSON GAY (M Dods) C&D winner, need to forget last run but blinkers back on, stall 3 is big help. Sean Kinane rides 3/1 2nd
• BEAUZON (I Williams) last time out winner and 2 6f course wins this autumn, weighted to win 68 > 62. Charles Bishop rides

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