PACAFI (Sunday 29 December 2024)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

First of all, our thanks to those members who have decided to stay with us during our break. We can now confirm, we will be staking the advice from ½pt win up to 3pts win or each way, and on occasions will stake protection in line with our personal betting.

ACE OF SPADES 12.18 Kelso at 4/5 (William Hill & Unibet 09.15) is a Pacafi 1pt win. The breeding does not inspire us to take the odds-on, but his form does. Useful bumper winner last spring and going the right way over hurdles, opening account in 4-runner novice hurdle (evens) at Cheltenham (16.4f, good to soft) 42 days ago. Step up in trip seems sure to suit and will likely take plenty of beating under a penalty. He is 10lbs clear of the second favourite on ratings and now has optimum conditions, Dan Skelton rides.

TIMEFORM VERDICT: ACE OF SPADES did well to come out on top at Cheltenham considering the drop in trip hardly looked ideal, so he's a straightforward choice to defy a penalty now upped to a more suitable distance. Small Town Kid and Far From Over can battle it out for minor honours.

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STATE MAN 2.30 Leopardstown at 4/9 (Betway bpg 10.02) 2pts win is our second Pacafi. Patrick Mullins has told us he is guaranteed to reverse form with Brighterdaysahead. The reigning champion hurdler suffered a shock defeat when Gordon Elliott’s mare rallied to beat him having been headed at Punchestown.

TIMEFORM VERDICT: With an outing under his belt STATE MAN is taken to reverse Morgiana form with Brighterdaysahead and land this Grade 1 prize for the third year in succession.

TRH is currently rewriting our eBOOK, which represents our uncomplicated approach to making a long-term profit from betting on horse racing. Within it, we take this opportunity to impart 57-years of our betting experience, detailing elements deemed most important to us.

The absolute key to success in betting is the ability to identify value bet situations where the odds available are greater than the true chance of winning and then to have the discipline to methodically bet only when these situations arise. If this is done the laws of mathematics and probability dictate that in the long term, you will make a profit. For example, we have staked at 4/5 (1pt win) with ACE OF SPADES, but feel, based on our vast experience, that 8/11 would have been a value price! We would not have taken anything shorter than 4/6, even though his form heavily suggests he will win for the Skelton team!
Our information and betting advice is for educational purposes only. Please exercise caution when acting upon our advice and remember that gambling carries risk. No liability is taken by the site or product owner following any of the information given or sold to you. Betting always involves a level of risk, and you should never bet more than you can afford to lose.

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