The Racing Horse offers our Kempton AW Racecourse Template for Monday 11 August 2025. There is  There is a 6-race card containing 4 Handicaps and 2 Maiden Races. The Polytrack surface is expected to ride standard to slow.

Winning Favourites (5 Years) 
Non-handicap                    Handicap 
2yo   106-268  40%   -39.36     38-91    42%   +11.04 
3yo   145-294  49%   -18.73     154-458  34%   -29.95 
4yo+   43-97   44%    -3.00     240-747  32%   -60.99 
TOTAL 294-659  45%   -61.09     432-1296 33%   -70.91

TOP 5 TRAINERS at KEMPTON past 5 years        +/-   E
Andrew Balding (16%)  85-539   16%   -57.97   +0%   3
Charlie Appleby (30%) 67-210   32%   -42.78   +2%   1
Roger Varian (20%)    64-250   26%   -23.70   +6%   0
J & T Gosden (21%)    61-305   20%   -74.07   -1%   0
Ralph Beckett (18%)   48-262   18%   -32.22   +0%   1

TOP 5 JOCKEYS at KEMPTON past 5 years         +/-   R
Oisin Murphy (21%)  104-470    22%   -80.63   +1%   0
Daniel Muscutt (13%) 93-616    15%  -157.17   +2%   4  
David Probert (13%)  85-672    13%    -3.57   +0%   5   
Rossa Ryan (16%)     73-495    15%   -68.02   -1%   5
R Kingscote (13%)    72-530    14%  -110.03   +1%   0

TOP 5 OWNERS at Kempton past 5 years          +/-   E
Godolphin (26%)	     90-326    28%   -81.00   +2%   1  
Juddmonte (23%)      22-83     27%   -19.65   +4%   0 
Shadwell Est (22%)   22-88     25%    -0.11   +3%   0
King Power (13%)     20-112    18%   -28.27   +5%   0 
Opulence Thoro (19%) 18-65     28%    +5.10   +9%   0

Upcoming Fixtures:
Wednesday 13 August 2025
Tuesday 19 August 2025
Wednesday 20 August 2025
Wednesday 27 August 2025

CONFIGURATION & DRAW: Kempton is a right-handed flat Polytrack course and the only AW surface that is right-handed. It is an oval-shaped and has two loops. The inner circuit, used for races over 5f & 10f are sharp and has a finishing straight of just under 2f, favouring the speedy, handy type, markedly so over the minimum trip. The turn on the outer course is more sweeping and the straight is approximately 3f long, making for a fairer test. Over both 5f & 6f there is a relatively short run to the first bend. One key factor across all distances confirms front runners consistently outperform.

is a right-handed, Polytrack, flat, oval-shaped course with two loops. The inner circuit, used for races over 5f & 10f is sharp and has a finishing straight of just under 2f, favouring the speedy, handy type, markedly so over the minimum trip. The turn on the outer course is more sweeping and the straight is approximately 3f long, making for a fairer test. Over both 5f & 6f there is a relatively short run to the first bend.

FAVOURITES: Kempton Racecourse Template provides a huge sample giving the figures real weight and substance! Winning favourites at the course over the past 5-years show 726-1955 for 36.15% and a level stake loss of -132.00, so +3% above the national average. Non-handicap winning favourites score at 45% as opposed to handicap favourites who score at 32% for a significant 13% differential.

• Best category are 3yo favs in non-handicaps 145-294 for 49% (-18.73)
• Worst category are 4yo favs in handicaps 240-747 for 32% (-60.99)
• Best versus the worst category shows a significant differential of 17%.
• Winning 3yo favourites in non-handicap score at a big 49% and a micro-system with just a modicum of filtration.
• First and second in the market at Kempton win at 52.96% of the races.

TRAINER: Top trainer at the course is Andrew Balding (16%), he has 2 runners including RELENTLESS HERO 4.17 & SOLAR PASS. Both appear to have place chances at least.

Ralph Beckett (18%) is another trainer with just 1 runner on the day in SEA THE WONDER 5.22 to be ridden by Rossa Ryan.

JOCKEY: Three jockeys of interest for this meeting. Danny Muscutt (13%) has 4 rides including GULLANE GIRL 2.45, HOT TALENT 3.15, GALLIC LEGEND 4.52 & WORD OF MOUTH 5.22.

David Probert (13%) could be the jockey to follow. He has 5 rides including TORBAY 2.45, QUATRO NETAS 3.45, RELENTLESS HERO 4.17, ST MAWES 4.52 & SOLAR PASS 5.22.

ROSSA RYAN (16%) returns from Deauville and has 5 rides including SMOKER BELLAMY 2.45, KOMODO ROSE 3.45, DELTA DAN 4.17, PRINCESS RASCAL 4.52 & SEA THE WONDER 5.22 for Ralph Beckett.

OWNER: Of the leading owners only Godolphin have a runner in ARABIAN POET 4.52

RED FLAG: Charlie Appleby (30%) scores 32% at Kempton. This year so far he is also scoring +2% above his national average, and continues to plunder the big races in America. His only runner of day runs here in ARABIAN POET 4.52, who drops from Class 2 to Class 4 and the hint should be taken. This 3yo Dubawe gelding is to be ridden by Triumph Hurdle winner Dougie Costello, his only ride of the day. The trainer & jockey combination show 18-77 for 23%, the national average of Costello is 9% for a +14% differential.

With our numbers context is everything, and we take this opportunity to delve a little deeper. For example, Charlie Appleby shows 5-13 for 38% (+0.87) this current year compared to leading trainer Andrew Balding's 10-59 for 17% (-26.56). At the course over the past 5 years, Appleby's runners shows 137-210 for 65.24% who finish 1-2 or 3 in their respective races, confirming the readiness and competitiveness of his charges.

Given the stable strength and form, then with the significant drop in class the race, he is clearly the one to beat! The question is - what is perceived value? Probably 3/1 for each-way purposes, but TRH will stake the Appleby trained to win, with a stake saver on Princess Rascal. We hope to exit the race with a profit...

2.45: Flybell Ltd 10th Anniversary Nursery Handicap (Class 6) 1m

• ISAMBARD KINGDOM (C Johnston) 245-miles distance travelled, will appreciate step up in trip on handicap debut. Trainer +£46.42 with horses stepped up in trip, Callum Shepherd rides WINNER at 7/4
• TORBAY (E Lavelle) progressing steadily, not harshly treated for Ffos Las victory and gelded since. David Probert rides 3rd at 3/1
• GULLANE GIRL (J Morland) drops from Class 2 to Class 6, improvement needed but possible. Danny Muscutt rides

3.15: Unibet Supporting Safer Gambling Handicap (Class 5) 1m

• DRAGONFLAME (B Meehan) beaten favourite last time out, Sean Levey rides 3rd at 5/2
• BINTSHUAA (D Menuisier) improved on yard debut over C&D in May, built on that when winning at Ffos Las (8f) the following month. Just 3 lb higher, go close. Trainer won this race last year, Rob Havlin rides
• POPEYE DOYLE (H Palmer) last time out winner, feasibly treated, place chance at least, Cieren Fallon rides WINNER at 10/3

3.45: Unibet/EBF Newcomers' "Confined" Restricted Maiden Fillies' Stakes (Class 4) 7f

• HOE BENHAM (R Hannon) yard with a good strike rate in AW juvenile events this year, market should tell us more, Sean Levey rides
• GALILEO CHARM (M Botti) dam unraced out of winning half-sister to Breeders' Cup Filly And Mare Turf winner Wuheida. Market check advised, especially given trainer +£49.07 with debutants, Rob Havlin rides 2nd at 11/2
• KOMODO ROSE (A Haynes) 35,000gns yearling, Ardad filly. Dam 6f-7f winner (including at 2 yrs). Interesting newcomer, though trainer currently 1-30 for 3% last 14 days. Rossa Ryan booked 4th at 9/2

4.17: Unibet/EBF Newcomers' "Confined" Restricted Maiden Stakes (Class 4) 7f

• RELENTLESS HERO (A Balding) top course trainer and solid with 2yos, £32,000 yearling, respected on debut, David Probert rides
• OUTSPAN (G Scott) trainer 10-49 for 20% with 2yos this year against national average of 14%, Callum Shepherd rides
• THREE SOCKS ON (R Teal) trainer 1-1 for 100% with 2yos this year, Jack Mitchell rides

4.52: Unibet More Extra Place Races Handicap (Class 4) 1m4f

• PRINCESS RASCAL (O Cole) beaten favourite last time out, up in trip to suit and out of a Polytrack winner. Rossa Ryan rides and 37% on favourites
• ARABIAN POET (C Appleby) drops from Class 2 to Class 4, trainer 32% at the course. Dougie Costello rides WINNER at 4/1. You beauty - bigger prices were available!

5.22: Unibet Zero% Mission Fillies' Handicap (Class 5) 1m3f

• SOLAR PASS (A Balding) beaten favourite last time out, David Probert rides 2nd at 11/2
• LADY CHATTERLEY (G Baker) formerly with P Decouz, last time out winner, market check advised, Pat Cosgrave rides
• SEA THE WONDER (R Beckett) drops from Class 2 to Class 5, handicap debut and trainer 18% with handicap debutants. Rossa Ryan rides