The Racing Horse is proud to offer our insightful RACECOURSE TEMPLATES for all three days of the Welsh Racing Festival. They give a panoramic overview of a meeting and are road maps that unmask, then reveal a betting landscape of an individual racecourse on a given day. By doing so, it offer serious bettors a competitive edge by turning raw data into actionable intelligence. They're not just about statistics—they're about understanding the subtleties that shape outcomes, helping users make smarter, more informed decisions based on the nuances of each racecourse.

 In preparation for the Welsh Racing Festival we remind ourselves of a few core figures from Chepstow Racecourse.

WINNING FAVOURITES (last 5 seasons)
Non-handicaps                  Handicaps
Hurdle  64  128  50%  +3.07    35  118  30%  -23.12
Chase    5   11  45%  -3.19    50  148  34%   -6.53
NHF     17   46  37%  -6.70  
Total   86  185  46%  -6.83    85  266  32%  -29.65

Winning favourites at Chepstow on the National Hunt course has a punter-friendly profile, showing 171-451 for 37.92% and a level stake loss of -£35.48 at SP to a £1 stake. This strike rate stands approximately +6% above the national average positioning Chepstow as one of the more favourable venues for backers of market leaders.

Best category are hurdle winning favourites in non-handicaps scoring 64-128 for a big 50% and a profit of +£3.07 to SP. Worst category regarding strike rate and profit are hurdle handicap favourites who score at 30% for a loss of -£23.12. Non-handicap winning favourites outperform handicap winning favourites by 14%. The best and worst category show a differential of 20%.

Looking at the trainer's leader board there are no real surprises, well, maybe there is one?

Leading trainers at Chepstow (last 5 season)
Paul Nicholls (23%)   44  194  23%  +0%  -72.12
Evan Williams (11%)   25  231  11%  +0%  -17.12
Fergal O'Brien (18%)  16  114  14%  -4%  -19.77
Dan Skelton (18%)     15  146  10%  -8%  -74.07
Sam Thomas (19%)      13   68  19%  +0%   +3.84

Paul Nicholls (23%) is clearly top trainer at the course but scores at the same rate as his national average so does not overperform at the course in a relative sense. In stark contrast, Dan Skelton (18%) has underperformed at this venue, managing just 10% which represents a noticeable -8% drop from his standard. This discrepancy is worth factoring into betting decisions, especially when assessing trainer-course synergy.

Spotting strong trainer-course synergy can help bettors identify value, especially when a trainer’s strike rate at a course exceeds their national average.

Harry Cobden, stable jockey to Paul Nicholls, typically mirrors his trainer’s national strike rate. However, at Chepstow, he exceeds expectations, delivering a notable 26% strike rate, so +3% above Nicholls’ national average. This uplift suggests Cobden has a strong affinity with the course, and when paired with Nicholls-trained runners, the combination becomes particularly potent. The 5-year combination scores 340-1356 for 25% so +2%. It’s a synergy worth factoring into the Welsh Racing Festival.

Leading jockeys at Chepstow (last 5 season)
Harry Cobden (23%)   38  146  26%  +3%  -29.62
Ben Jones (15%)      21   99  21%  +6%  +64.55
Adam Wedge (11%)     18  161  11%  -7%  -34.35
Gavin Sheehan (18%)  16   72  22%  +4%  +12.11
J O'Neill Jnr (15%)  15  100  15%  +0%  -25.29

At Chepstow, Ben Jones (15%) records 21% so +6% above his national average, whilst Gavin Sheehan (18%) scores at 22% for +4%. Both show handsome profits to SP proving they ride above expectation at the course!

David Brace (13%)        8  33  24%  +11%  +21.25
Walters Plant (21%)      8  41  20%   -1%   +5.27
J P McManus (13%)        8  63  13%   +0%  -13.18
Mr & Mrs W Rucker (10%)  6  50  12%   +2%  -18.50
Colm Donlon (20%)        4  11  36%  +16%  +11.75

The sample size for the leading owners at Chepstow is too small to be of help, though it is not surprising that Welshmen David Brace and Dai Walters are the two leading owners.

There is just 34 days to go until the WELSH RACING FESTIVAL, so the countdown is on and TRH hopes to be there for all three days. Our aim is clear: to tool up and prepare. This piece will be regularly updated as we approach the off, bringing you all the latest insights, stats, and relevant news to sharpen your edge.

Please check out the 'Chepstow Racecourse Home Page' for details about tickets and hospitality.

CHEPSTOW RACECOURSE - WHAT'S ON

Special thanks to DRAGONBET, a proudly Welsh-owned and family-run bookmaker, who has deep roots in the nation’s racing heritage. The Lovell family, who founded Dragonbet, have been trading on-course at Chepstow Racecourse since the late 1960s, making their recent appointment as headline sponsor a landmark moment for Welsh horse racing.

Their sponsorship reflects a strong commitment to nurturing and celebrating the sport within Wales. One of their most impactful contributions has been the transformation of the Jump Season Opener into the newly branded Dragonbet Welsh Racing Festival, a vibrant three-day event held each October.

This revitalised festival now features: 

• The Grade 2 Persian War Novices' Hurdle: a key early-season contest for top-class hurdlers
• The Welsh Champion Hurdle: returning to Chepstow for the first time since 2002, after being staged at Ffos Las since 2010
• The launch of the Welsh Racing Hall Of Fame: celebrating the legends and legacy of Welsh racing
• Piercefield Cup Trainers Championship: awarded to the top-performing yard across the three days
• Live music and entertainment: adding a festival atmosphere beyond the racing

 The return of the Welsh Champion Hurdle after 23 years is a symbolic homecoming that underscores Dragonbet’s dedication to restoring the prestige of Welsh racing.  First run at Chepstow in 1969, it was won in 1971 by the legendary Bula, one of the greatest hurdlers of all time.

Beyond the festival, they’ve also sponsored individual races, such as the Dragonbet Proud Sponsors Of Chepstow Racecourse Handicap, reinforcing their presence throughout the racing calendar.

Dragonbet’s involvement represents more than just financial support, it's a transformational partnership. By reimagining key events and restoring historic races, they’ve elevated Chepstow’s status in the National Hunt calendar, bringing a distinctly local and culturally rich approach that sets them apart from previous sponsors.

TRH gives a heartfelt thank you to Chepstow’s General Manager, Luke Admans, whose vision and leadership have been more than instrumental in bringing this Festival of Racing to fruition. Luke’s influence at Chepstow Racecourse is already shaping a thrilling future, one filled with unforgettable racing days. His contribution deserves every accolade and TRH envisages a bright future under his stewardship.

It was at this very fixture in 2015 when we first met ALTIOR who scored his very first win over obstacles at Chepstow. It felt (see picture) as if we were the only one to welcome him back into the winners enclosure. He went on to thrill the racing world and win 21 of his 26 races, earning £1,320,795 in prize money. The word privilege sprung to mind on the day and continues to do so now!

Our thoughts now return to the Welsh Racing Festival starting on Friday 10 October 2025...

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