The Racing Horse offers our Chepstow NH Racecourse Template for Friday 10 October 2024. There is an 8-race card for the first day of Chepstow's inaugural three-day Welsh Racing Festival. The going is currently good, good to soft in places. Sunny intervals and light winds are expected, so the ground should be good at some point.

ALL the WINNERS can be found HERE!

CHEPSTOW FAVOURITES (5 seasons)
Non-handicap                   Handicap
Hurdle 64-128   50%   +3.07    35-118   30%   -23.12
Chase  5-11     45%   -3.19    50-148   34%    -6.53
NHF    17-46    37%   -6.70    0-0	 	
TOTAL  86-185   46%   -6.83    85-266   32%   -29.65

TOP 5 TRAINERS at Chepstow (last 5 seasons)  +/-   E
Paul Nicholls (23%)  44-194   23%   -72.12   +0%   2
Evan Williams (11%)  25-231   11%   -17.12   +0%   4 
Fergal O'Brien (18%) 16-114   14%   -19.77   -4%   2
Dan Skelton (18%)    15-146   10%   -74.07   -8%  11
Sam Thomas (19%)     13-68    19%    +3.84   +0%   1
    
TOP 5 JOCKEYS at Chepstow (last 5 seasons)   +/-   R
Harry Cobden (23%)    38-146  26%   -29.62   +3%   3
Ben Jones (15%)       21-99   21%   +64.55   +6%   2
Adam Wedge (11%)      18-161  11%   -34.35   +0%   4
Gavin Sheehan (18%)   16-72   22%   +12.11   +4%   5
Jonjo O'Neill (15%)   15-100  15%   -25.69   +0%   0

Sean Bowen (21%)       9-90   10%   -50.19  -11%   7
James Bowen (17%)      6-54   11%   -24.75   -6%   4

TOP 5 OWNERS at Chepstow (last 5 seasons)    +/-   E
David Brace (13%)     8-33   24%   +21.25   +11%   0
Walters Plant (21%)   8-41   20%    +5.27    -1%   1
John P McManus (18%)  8-63   13%   -13.18    -5%   1
William Rucker (10%)  6-50   12%   -18.50    +2%   0
Colm Donlon (20%)     4-11   36%   +11.75   +16%   0
    
Upcoming Chepstow Fixtures:
Friday 10 October 2025
Saturday 11 October 2025
Sunday 12 October 2025

What are RACECOURSE TEMPLATES?	
The importance of NATIONAL AVERAGES	

FAVOURITES: It's official, Chepstow is a punter friendly racecourse. The last 5 seasons show 171 winning favourites from 451 races for 37.92% for a level stake loss of -36.48. The strike is around +5% above the national average. Non-handicap winning favourites score at 45% whilst those handicap winning favourites record 32% for a 13% differential. 

BEST CATEGORY: Winning favourites in non-handicap hurdles 64-128 for 50% (+3.07)
WORST CATEGORY: Winning favourites in handicap hurdles 35-118 for 30% (-23.12) 

TRAINERS: Paul Nicholls (23%) is the top trainer at the course, and replicates his national average here. He has 2 entries including FASOL 1.22 & WELCOM TO CARTRIES 4.17.

Once again, our eyes will be on the progress of Harry Derham this season. His national average matches the 23% of Nicholls and we can expect him to at least replicate that figure this season. Last season, TRH spoke with owner David Maxwell, who praised Derham’s talent and confirmed there’s now a waiting list to place horses with him, a testament to his rising reputation. His figures for Chepstow show 6-17 for 35% (+6.86) and his QUEENSBURY BOY 3.43 (owned by David Maxwell) is of immense interest, given he is 2 from 3 over hurdles and deemed good enough to travel to Punchestown to run in a Grade 1 last time out.

Dan Skelton (18%) only scores a disappointing 10% at the course, so around an average of 3 a year but it looks as though he has come tooled up for this Festival with 11 entries on the first day which include LOUIS VERON & HARRY BRIGHT 1.22, ALBIE LITTLEWOOD & BLUE CARPET 1.57, THEONEWEDREAMOF 2.32, LE MILOS 3.12, MONEYGARROW 3.43, COCO MADEMOISELLE 4.17, JORAH & SUPREME YEATS 4.55 and LA BELLE ARGENTEE 5.30.

JOCKEYS: Harry Cobden (23%) is top jockey at the course, but scores +3% above his national average at a course he rides so well. He has just 3 rides booked including FASOL 1.22, TASHAN 1.57 & WELCOM TO CARTRIES 4.17

Ben Jones (15%) is another who rides the course beautifully, scoring at +6% above his national average. He has just 2 rides including SOMESPRING SPECIAL 2.32 & JHENTONG ENKI 4.55

The Festival could showcase the talents of the Bowen family, though we are duty bound to report Sean (10%) and James (11%) both have poor figures at Chepstow. Tomorrow they have 11 rides between them, and we can naturally expect them to heavily feature in proceedings and provide a winner!

OWNERS: Walters Plant (21%) have a single entry in KOP LAND 1.57 trained by Sam Thomas and to be ridden by Dylan Johnston who claims 3lb. There was some money for this one on debut and the market will tell us more.

J P McManus (15%) has a single entry in KAINSBOURG 3.43 trained by Gordon Elliott and ridden by James Bowen

GREEN FLAG: Our Racecourse Templates always provides an angle or two into a meeting. At Chepstow, winning favourites in non-handicap hurdle races show 64-128 for 50% and a level stake profit of +£3.07 to a £1 stake over the past 5 seasons. This information makes up one of our micro-systems, and with just a modicum of filtration we score at 60.96%. We encourage readers to follow this profitable thread throughout the season at Chepstow. It’s a proven seam of reasoning, and one worth banking on. We’ll continue to update readers on its performance as the season unfolds.

On Friday, there are 3 qualifying races including the 1.22: Wasdell Group Novices' Hurdle Div I (Class 4) 2m, the 1.57: Wasdell Group Novices' Hurdle Division II (Class 4) 2m, and the 3.43: Dragonbet Persian War Novices' Hurdle (Grade 2) 2m3½m. Once we have the final declarations we will post more news here...

Mick Fitzgerald talks about Chepstow Racecourse

Record times for Chepstow are very quick, which shows how slick it can be when the ground is fast, but horses can finish strung out like washing when it gets soft. Punters really must take note of conditions then, if they’re having a bet, because horses with stamina limitations can get home when the going is right for them, while it can be a real slog when it’s heavy. The other things to consider seriously are the undulations and the downhill run from the last. If you walk round the course, for example, you’ll be aware that, from several places out in the country, you can’t see the stands. The run-in, on the other hand, is quite steeply downhill, very quick on fast ground, and that’s why you often see horses make a mistake at the final jump - Mick Fitzgerald

CHEPSTOW RACECOURSE - WHAT'S ON