RACECOURSE CASE STUDY: Taunton (National Hunt)

1 OVERVIEW

• Period Analysed: Last 5 seasons
• Key Insight: Taunton consistently delivers above‑average strike rates for favourites, offering bettors a measurable edge.

2 FAVOURITES PERFORMANCE

• Overall Strike Rate: 44.96% (156 winners from 347 runners)
• Level Stake Profit/Loss: +£12.39 to a £1 stake
• Comparison to National Average: +14% percentage points about the ∼ 33% national average
• Winning favourites in non-handicap races: 51%
• Winning favourites in handicap races: 39%

3 HISTORICAL TRENDS

• Favourites at Taunton have consistently outperformed national averages over multiple seasons.
• Non handicap races show exceptional reliability, with favourites strike more than half the time.
• Handicap races remain strong, still outperforming the national benchmark.
• The data demonstrates resilience, with no signs of diminishing potency

4 STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS

• Bettors should pay particular attention to non-handicap favourites, where strike rates are notably high
• The template highlights Taunton as a course where favourites carry genuine value, especially compared to national averages
• Practical takeaway: Taunton's historical data suggests that backing favourites here is a discipline value-driven strategy

5 CONCLUSION

Taunton stands out as a racecourse where mathematics and probability align to favour the bettor. With favourites striking at nearly 45% overall — and over 50% in non-handicaps — the course offers a significant edge compared to national averages. While racing always carries uncertainty, the aggregates at Taunton provide bettors with a stronger starting position, reinforcing the principle that patterns persist, probabilities hold weight, and those who embrace them gain a vital edge.