The 2025 Coral Welsh Grand National will take place at Chepstow Racecourse on Saturday 27 December, starting at 14:50. It’s Wales’ richest race, worth £170,000, and is renowned as one of the toughest stamina tests in British jump racing. The Racing Horse will provide FREE to racegoers, all the contextual, pertinent and relevant numbers to help enjoy this fabulous day! There is a 7-race card and the going is expected to be good to soft.
Best wishes to Evan and Cathy Williams who seek their 100th Chepstow winner today!
CHEPSTOW FAVOURITES (5 seasons)
Non-handicap Handicap
Hurdle 71-139 51% +5.77 38-128 30% -25.47
Chase 6-13 46% -3.09 54-159 34% -9.27
NHF 19-49 39% -5.12 0-0
TOTAL 96-201 48% -2.45 92-287 32% -34.74
TOP 5 TRAINERS at Chepstow (last 5 seasons) +/- E
Paul Nicholls (23%) 44-211 21% -89.12 -2% 0
Evan Williams (11%) 26-256 10% -37.79 -1% 4
Dan Skelton (18%) 20-179 11% -92.47 -7% 4
Sam Thomas (19%) 18-76 24% +21.67 +5% 2
Fergal O'Brien (18%) 17-124 14% -25.77 -4% 1
TOP 5 JOCKEYS at Chepstow (last 5 seasons) +/- R
Harry Cobden (23%) 38-160 24% -43.62 +1% 0
Ben Jones (15%) 23-107 21% +62.05 +6% 0
Adam Wedge (11%) 19-167 11% -36.02 +0% 0
Gavin Sheehan (18%) 17-79 22% +12.11 +4% 4
Sam T-Davies (15%) 17-117 15% -40.06 +0% 0
TOP 5 OWNERS at Chepstow (last 5 seasons) +/- E
Walters Plant (21%) 12-48 25% +15.10 +4% 2
David Brace (13%) 8-35 23% +19.25 +10% 1
John P McManus (18%) 8-65 12% -15.18 -6% 2
William Rucker (10%) 6-51 12% -19.50 +2% 0
Brocade Racing (22%) 5-29 17% -4.75 -5% 2
FAVOURITES: Winning favourites at Chepstow over the past 5 years show 188-488 for 38.52% and a level stake loss of -£37.19 to a £1 stake at SP. This strike rate is at least +5% higher compared to the national average. Best category are winning favourites in non-handicap hurdles 71-139 for 51% (+£5.77), whilst the worst category are winning favourites in handicaps 38-128 for 30% (-£25.47). The margins between these categories amount to a 21% swing in strike rate and a £31.24 difference in returns. It is absolutely essential for bettors to be aware of such figures.
Record times for Chepstow are very quick, which shows how slick it can be when the ground is fast, but horses can finish strung out like washing when it gets soft. Punters really must take note of conditions then, if they’re having a bet, because horses with stamina limitations can get home when the going is right for them, while it can be a real slog when it’s heavy. The other things to consider seriously are the undulations and the downhill run from the last. If you walk round the course, for example, you’ll be aware that, from several places out in the country, you can’t see the stands. The run-in, on the other hand, is quite steeply downhill, very quick on fast ground, and that’s why you often see horses make a mistake at the final jump (Mick Fitzgerald)
TRAINERS: Evan Williams (11%) has 4 runners at Chepstow on Saturday. His horses are not in the best of form, the last 14 days show 1-23 for 4%. He has ran 16 horses over the last 13 days without a winner and December shows 3-42 for just 7%. Evan is currently on 99 career winners and £1,102,568 in prize money at Chepstow, and we had hoped to be there in person to cheer home his landmark 100th at his local track. His horses are known for toughness, longevity, and reliability — hallmarks of this well‑run Welsh yard. The Racing Horse has a special affinity to Evan and Cathy, they kindly invited us to their stables when we first launched with the general public in June 2011, and both have been very kind to us since!
As we go to post their entries include OAKLEY 12.30, WEWILLGOWITHPLANB, IDEALLKO 1.05, PATRIOTIK 2.10 & DR T J ECKLEBURG 3.25
Sam Thomas (21%) has a 30-odd string of horses operating out of his Cardiff stables. He excels with chasers and shows 41-162 for 25% and a huge profit of +£72.99 to a £1 stake at SP. For the current year at Chepstow he scores 5-8 for 63% (+3.33). On Saturday he has 2 runners at Chepstow including DOCTOR KILDARE 2.10 & JUBILEE EXPRESS 2.50. His main owner is Dai Walters (Walters Plant Hire 23%) and their combination is worth noting showing all time figures of 67-274 at 24% (+£19.67) and prize money of £1,325,365.
Gordon Elliott (15%) brings 2 over from Ireland to run in the Welsh National, cannot see a place let alone a win, but we could be wrong.
JOCKEYS: Champion jockey Sean Bowen (21%) has 3 rides of real interest including KNIGHT TEMPLAR 12.30, SONIC PIONEER 1.40 & HAITI COULEURS 2.50. This current years sees him 6-19 for 32% (+18.95) at the course.
Kielan Woods (14%) is an interesting jockey booking for Sam Thomas as he rides the favourite JUBILEE EXPRESS in the Welsh National. He has only ridden once for the trainer before so a bit of pressure to perform. We note the horse carries just 10st 3lbs and the jockey weighs 10st 2lbs so no lead to be carried on this marathon trip. A slight negative is the jockey is just 2-26 for 8% at the course.
Another with one ride is Bryony Frost (16%) who rides INTENSE RAFFLES 2.50. She hasn't ridden a winner here in the last 5 seasons.
OWNERS: The top 5 owners at Chepstow over the past 5 years have 7 runners between them.
GREEN FLAG: Fact - Joe Tizzard (15%) has a miserable record at Chepstow given the quality of his horses and the numbers are hard to explain. At the course he shows just 4 winners from 75 runners for 5% (-59.50). Two of those wins have been hurdlers and two with chasers. Today he sends 5 to the course and each of them appear to have at least a place chance and we anticipate a much better showing than 5%. He comes to Chepstow in good nick, November and December show 23-119 for over 19% so +4% above his national average. Another 40 have finished either second or third meaning 53% have finished in the first three!
His runners include TENNESSEE TANGO 12.00, SIAM PARK 1.05, AMBION VIEW 2.10, ROCK MY WAY 2.50 & WESTERN GENERAL 3.25. It could be a great for the Tizzards if Rock My Way repeats his performance of last time out when bagging the Berkshire National at Ascot (3m5f, good to soft) 5 weeks ago. That run was his second after having a wind-op so a suggestion of more to come. Optimum is probably good ground but the good to soft today should be fine. He looks to be a massive player and the yard have won this race before when Native River won the 2016 version. Brendan Powell (12%) rides all 5 of the Tizzard runners.
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